基于熵理论的企业财务危机管理研究 ——以沪深ST上市公司为例

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浙江财经学院硕士学位论文

摘要

所谓财务危机是指企业财务活动处于失控状态或遭受严重挫折的危险与紧急

状态，是企业盈利能力和偿付能力实质性削弱，企业趋于破产等困难处境的总称，

是企业财务失衡、紧张和恶化的外在表现。财务危机本身存在一个由潜伏、发展

以至最终爆发的阶段性特征，是一个动态过程。面对“优胜劣汰，适者生存”的

市场竞争，我国上市公司的财务状况面临着前所未有的巨大冲击。鉴于此，每一

家上市公司迫切需要建立一套能预先防范财务危机，诊断危机并有效处理财务危

机的管理系统，来帮助企业避开和化解可能出现的财务危机。目前虽然已有一些

举措来应对财务危机，也出现了众多财务危机预警理论来指导财务危机管理的实

施，但这些成果仅仅局限于财务危机的某个阶段，却鲜有针对财务危机管理全过

程的理论来指导实践工作。面对这一窘境，熵理论以其对不确定因素有效度量的

特点，为财务危机管理打开了崭新的研究视角。从热力学第二定律发展而来的熵

理论及其泛化而来的相关理论，形成了内容丰富，涵盖广泛的“熵家族”：熵权法

能够梳理影响财务危机的各种因素的重要性程度，熵变思想从理论高度描述了财

务危机动态变化过程，管理熵理论又为财务危机管理提供科学的管理路径。

本文基于熵理论的上市公司财务危机管理研究是一个包括财务危机的事前预

警、事中的处理以及事后反思的完善系统，主要目的是利用熵与财务危机的共性

建立该体系以达到减少危机，减少企业价值损失，维护企业财务安全运行的目的。

为此，论文结合财务危机本身的阶段性特征，从企业财务危机的潜伏期、爆发期

和消退期这一动态阶段展开研究。在该体系中，利用熵理论并将其优越性充分地

展现在财务危机管理始终,从而形成一个基于熵理论的财务危机管理系统。

本文分为四个部分：第一部分对熵和财务危机管理的定义进行了探讨，首先

具体介绍了熵理论及其衍生的理论——熵权法、熵变思想、管理熵的定义和应用

机理；然后对财务危机管理的核心概念进行定义，并提出本文的研究对象；接着

阐述了系统论、耗散结构理论、企业危机管理这三个理论基础；最后对财务危机

管理进行“熵”解析，从理论上证明熵理论指导财务危机管理的可行性。这是论

文的主要理论阐述部分，也是研究的基石。第二部分是对本文研究对象的基本现

状进行描述，通过这一部分的介绍，对本文的研究对象——上市公司中的特别处

理公司（即 ST 公司）有了一个整体性的了解，也为实证研究提供了感性资料。另

外，为了能将熵理论与 ST 公司的财务危机管理自然融合，用案例形式介绍了如何

用熵变思想解析财务危机的发展演化过程，作为下文实证中的熵变研究的一个文

字说明，同时也再次验证了熵变思想指导财务危机管理过程的可行性。第三部分

是基于熵理论的财务危机管理实证研究，也是本文的核心部分。依据财务危机的

动态发展过程建立三段式的实证研究，利用熵权法对财务危机关系密切的财务指

浙江财经学院硕士学位论文

标进行客观赋权，分别找到对财务危机预警、财务危机处理及财务危机反思三个

时期最重要的指标。通过对样本公司的综合负熵值的计算，发现所得数据能充分

说明财务危机企业与非财务危机企业的熵值存在较大差距，财务危机公司的财务

状况是伴随着熵值变动而不断波动的，因而有力地证明了熵理论应用于财务危机

管理的优越性。最后一部分是对财务危机管理实证研究的一个综合性总结，并展

望熵理论视角下中国上市公司财务危机管理的发展之路。

本文可能存在的创新点主要有以下两点：一是充分利用财务危机和熵理论内

在的联系性，将两者紧密结合，扩展了熵理论的应用范围，也开拓了财务危机管

理的研究领域，从熵的视角解读了企业财务危机的发展演变过程。二是对财务危

机研究并不局限于预警阶段，而是依据企业综合负熵值的变动来剖析财务危机动

态发展过程，建立全面的财务危机管理体系。通过实证客观地得到影响财务危机

每一阶段的主要因素，验证了只有发展主业、提高自身的造血功能，才有能力对

抗财务危机的生存哲理。

关键词：熵；财务危机；财务危机管理；ST 上市公司

浙江财经学院硕士学位论文

ABSTRACT

The so-called financial crisis is the corporate financial activity is out of control or

is frustrated by the serious risk so that is in the state of emergency. It also means the

ability of enterprise profitability and solvency is substantial weakening, more serious it

may tend to bankruptcy. Financial crisis is the external manifestations of corporate

financial imbalances, tensions and deteriorating. The corporate has a dynamic process

including potential danger ，development stage, degeneration and outbreak. Facing of

"survival of the fittest" competition in the market, the financial situation of Chinese

listed companies encounter greater concussion than ever. In view of this, managers need

to establish a framework for precautionary financial crisis, diagnosis, prediction of

financial crises and to deal effectively with the crisis management system to help

companies avoid and resolve financial crises that may arise. There are some executions

to reply financial crisis, at the same time, many theories of financial crisis pre-warning

are used for financial crisis management. But they just reply one stage of financial crisis

and can't direct the full process of financial crisis management into practice. Facing the

embarrassed condition, the theory of entropy has the characteristic of measuring of

uncertain factors, so it opens a new perspective of study of financial crisis management.

From the second law of thermodynamics, the theory of entropy and its generalization

and related theory have formed a rich content, covering a wide range of "entropy

family": The entropy weight method can differentiate influence factors of the financial

crisis, theory of entropy change describes the financial dynamic process from the

ideological factor, the management entropy theory provide a scientific management path

for financial crisis management.

The study of this paper is a research on Chinese listed companies based on the

theory of entropy, including financial crisis pre-warning, dealing with financial crisis in

the processing and the subsequent reflection. The main aim is to use the same

characteristic of financial crisis and entropy to establish the system in order to achieve

the reduction of risk, reduce the loss of enterprise value, to maintain the safe operation

of the purpose of corporate finance. Therefore, according to the character of stage of

financial crisis , the paper studies the financial crisis from the incubation of crisis, the

outbreak of crisis to the regression of crisis. The system of companies’ financial crisis

management in this paper will use the theory of entropy completely, to form a system of

financial crisis management based on the theory of entropy.

The paper is divided into four parts: the first part discusses the definition of the

浙江财经学院硕士学位论文

entropy and the financial crisis management. In the beginning ,it describes method of

application of entropy about the managerial entropy, the entropy weight and the entropy

change; then defines the main concept of financial crisis management and gives the

object of study in this paper; later, it explains three theoretical principle about the

system theory ，the dissipative structure theory and the theory of enterprise crisis

management; at the end ,it analyzes the financial crisis management from the "entropy",

proving the practicability of guidance of financial crisis management used by entropy.

They are the main theories of the paper and also the cornerstones of the study. The

second part is to show the specific research object of this article, and describe the

present basic status of Chinese Special Treatment listed companies. Through this part of

the introduction, we will know about the listed company with a Special Treatment. It

also supplies the perceptual knowledge for the later study. In addition, in order to be

able to combine the theory of the entropy to the financial crisis management of the

listed company with a Special Treatment, it will use a case to present how the entropy

change to interpret the development of the financial crisis. It is not only a text

description of the study, but also defined the feasibility of using in the process of crisis

management. The third part also the core of this paper, is the study of financial crisis

management based on entropy weight model. Based on the dynamic development of the

financial crisis, it is divided into three stages of empirical research. Using entropy

weight method to decide the weighting of the financial indicator objectively and to find

the most important indicators of the early warning of financial crisis, financial crisis and

the financial crisis reflect period. Through the integrated sample companies with

negative entropy calculation, it discovers that the data can be fully demonstrated the

difference between the financial crisis companies and the healthy companies. The

financial condition of the financial crisis companies is changed by the change of their

entropy. It is proved strongly that the superiority of entropy using in the financial crisis

management. The last part is a comprehensive summary of empirical studies of

financial crisis management, and prospects the development of Chinese listed

companies’ financial crisis management.

The innovation may exist in this paper are mainly two points in the follow: one is

to make the best of the inner relation of financial crisis and the theory of entropy, and

combine them closely. It expands the scope of application of the theory of entropy and

the research of financial crisis management. The paper makes clear the development

process of evolution about the company financial crisis from the scope of entropy.

浙江财经学院硕士学位论文

Another is that the paper is not only confined the early stage of the study of financial

crisis, but also studies the change of the financial crisis according the comprehensive

negative entropy of enterprise, and form a comprehensive financial crisis management

system. Through an empirical research it has got the important factors at each stage of

financial crisis, and also verified the philosophy that only developing primary business

and improving the haematopoietic function can be ability to be against the financial

crisis is right.

Keywords: Entropy; Financial Crisis; Financial Crisis Management; Special Treatment

Listed Companies

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摘要：

浙江财经学院硕士学位论文6摘要所谓财务危机是指企业财务活动处于失控状态或遭受严重挫折的危险与紧急状态，是企业盈利能力和偿付能力实质性削弱，企业趋于破产等困难处境的总称，是企业财务失衡、紧张和恶化的外在表现。财务危机本身存在一个由潜伏、发展以至最终爆发的阶段性特征，是一个动态过程。面对“优胜劣汰，适者生存”的市场竞争，我国上市公司的财务状况面临着前所未有的巨大冲击。鉴于此，每一家上市公司迫切需要建立一套能预先防范财务危机，诊断危机并有效处理财务危机的管理系统，来帮助企业避开和化解可能出现的财务危机。目前虽然已有一些举措来应对财务危机，也出现了众多财务危机预警理论来指导财务危机管理的实施，但这些成...

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