非常规突发事件的应急物资调度研究

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3.0 侯斌 2024-11-19 9 4 1.45MB 60 页 15积分

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摘要

21 世纪以来，科学技术取得了巨大的进步，社会经济得到高速的发展，人们

的生活水平得到了显著的提高。但是由于自然因素或社会因素的作用，频发的非

常规突发事件给国家和人民带来了重大的人员伤亡和巨大的经济损失。这些严重

的后果让我们深刻地意识到提高应急管理水平的重要性和紧迫性。余姚水灾救援

过程中出现的物资哄抢、鲁甸地震救援过程中出现的救援物资供需不符等事件更

加让我们意识到提高应急物资调度效率的重要性。

应急物资调度是应急管理中重要的一个环节，制定出合理的物资调度方案对

提高救援效率有着重大意义。本文在分析国内外研究现状的基础上，同时结合非

常规突发事件和应急物流的特性，发现目前学者们的大多数研究假定物资需求量

是确定的，并且一般认为受灾点的受灾程度以及各种物资的需求紧迫程度也是一

样的。此外，考虑供应点运力约束的情况也比较少。针对以上发现，本文主要做

了以下几个方面的研究。

首先，对需求点应急优先权及应急物资配送优先权分级进行了研究。提出了

基于模糊 C均值聚类算法的多需求点应急优先权分级方法。通过聚类算法将多个

受灾点分组，再利用对各指标的加权求和得到小组的优先权分级。

其次，针对无运力约束和随机需求的情况建立了应急物资调度模型，并在模

型中引入了受灾点需求紧迫度系数，以运输时间最短和应急成本最少为目标建立

了一个带随机约束的整数规划模型。求解时先将随机约束转化为确定约束，再将

多目标转化为单目标，最后用 Lingo 编程实现对仿真算例的求解。

最后，针对有运力约束和模糊需求的情况，以受灾点损失最少和应急成本最

少为目标建立了一个非线性约束的整数规划模型。求解时先将模糊变量转化为确

定性变量，再将多目标转化为单目标。最后设计了混沌粒子群算法对模型进行了

求解，并通过仿真算例验证了模型的合理性和算法的有效性。

通过以上研究，进一步丰富了应急物资调度理论，为实际的应急物资调度决

策提供必要的理论支持，有助于应急管理人员在抗灾救援过程中快速做出调度决

策。

关键词：非常规突发事件应急物资调度不确定需求运力约束需求

优先权

ABSTRACT

Since the 21st century, science and technology has made tremendous progress.

With the rapid development of social economy, the living level of people has improved

significantly. However, due to the natural factors or social factors, frequent

unconventional emergencies bring heavy casualties and huge economic losses to the

the government and people. These serious consequences make us deeply aware of the

importance and urgency of improving the level of emergency management. The sparse

looting of relief materials in the Yuyao flood and the unconformity of supplies and

demands in Ludian earthquake especially make us realize the importance of improving

the efficiency of emergency material scheduling.

Emergency material scheduling is an important aspect in emergency management.

A reasonable scheduling scheme is of great significance to disaster relief. Based on the

research status and combined with the characteristics of unconventional emergencies

and emergency logistics, this thesis finds that the majority of scholars assume the

material demand is certain, the extent of damage in every demand point and the demand

urgency of various material is equal. Besides, the study that considers the capacity

constraint of supply points is rare. Based on those findings, the main research in this

paper is as follows.

Firstly, the demand priority classification for demand points and distribution

priority for emergency material are studied. This paper proposes a demand priority

classification method which is based on fuzzy C-means clustering algorithm. The

affected points are divided into groups by clustering. we can get the priority

classification by comparing the combination weight of each index.

Secondly, the emergency material scheduling model is constructed under the

unlimited transport capacity and stochastic demand conditions. The demand urgency

coefficient is added to the model. The target of the integer programming with random

constraint is minimize transport time and relief cost. The stochastic constraints are

transformed into identified constraints and the multi-objective is transformed to a single

objective when solving. An example is realized by the Lingo programming.

Finally, a nonlinear constraint integer programming model is constructed under the

transport constraint and fuzzy demand condition. The goal of this model is to minimize

the loss of affected region and relief cost. The fuzzy variables are changed to

determining variables and the multi-objective is transformed to a single objective when

solving. The chaotic particle swarm optimization (CPSO) is designed to solve the

transformed model. A simulation example verifies the reasonability of the model and the

effectiveness of the proposed CPSO.

With the above studies, the emergency material scheduling theory is further

enriched. This research can provide necessary theoretical support for an actual

emergency material scheduling and help the emergency managers to make scheduling

decisions quickly in disaster recue process.

Key Word：Unconventional emergencies, Scheduling of emergency

Material, Uncertain demand, Capacity constraint, Demand priority

中文摘要

ABSTRACT

第一章绪论 .................................................................................................................... 1

1.1 选题背景 ................................................................................................................ 1

1.2 研究目的及意义 .................................................................................................... 2

1.3 国内外研究现状 .................................................................................................... 2

1.3.1 国外研究现状 .................................................................................................. 2

1.3.2 国内研究现状 .................................................................................................. 4

1.3.3 文献点评 .......................................................................................................... 5

1.4 研究内容及论文框架 ........................................................................................... 6

第二章应急物资调度相关概述 .................................................................................... 8

2.1 非常规突发事件的相关理论 ................................................................................ 8

2.1.1 非常规突发事件的概念界定 .......................................................................... 8

2.1.2 非常规突发事件的特征 .................................................................................. 8

2.1.3 非常规突发事件的分类分级 .......................................................................... 9

2.2 应急物资的相关理论 .......................................................................................... 10

2.2.1 应急物资的概念 ............................................................................................ 10

2.2.2 应急物资分类 ................................................................................................ 11

2.3 应急物流基本理论 ............................................................................................. 12

2.3.1 应急物流的涵义与特征 ................................................................................ 12

2.3.2 应急物流系统 ................................................................................................ 13

2.3.3 应急物资调度的决策过程 ........................................................................... 14

2.4 本章小结 .............................................................................................................. 16

第三章需求点应急优先权及应急物资配送优先权分级 .......................................... 17

3.1 基于模糊 C均值聚类算法的多需求点应急优先权研究 ................................. 17

3.1.1 模糊 C均值聚类算法描述 ........................................................................... 17

3.1.2 应急优先权模型的构建及求解 .................................................................... 19

3.1.3 算例分析 ....................................................................................................... 20

3.2 基于模糊综合评价法的应急物资配送优先权研究 .......................................... 22

3.2.1 模糊综合评价法的描述 ............................................................................... 22

3.2.2 应急物资配送优先权模型的构建 ............................................................... 23

3.2.3 算例分析 ....................................................................................................... 24

3.3 本章小结 ............................................................................................................. 26

第四章无运力约束下考虑应急优先权的应急物资调度 .......................................... 27

4.1 问题描述 .............................................................................................................. 27

4.2 模型的建立与求解 .............................................................................................. 28

4.2.1 模型的假设及参数、变量 ............................................................................ 28

4.2.2 不考虑需求点应急优先权的应急物资调度模型 ........................................ 28

4.2.3 考虑需求点应急优先权的应急物资调度模型 ............................................ 29

4.2.4 模型的求解 .................................................................................................... 31

4.3 仿真算例 ............................................................................................................. 32

4.4 本章小结 ............................................................................................................. 36

第五章模糊需求下有运力约束的应急物资调度 ...................................................... 37

5.1 问题描述 .............................................................................................................. 37

5.2 模型的建立 .......................................................................................................... 38

5.2.1 模型的假设 ................................................................................................... 38

5.2.2 模型的参数及变量 ....................................................................................... 38

5.2.3 有运力约束的应急物资调度模型的建立 ................................................... 39

5.2.4 模型的变换 .................................................................................................... 41

5.3 求解应急物资调度问题的混沌粒子群算法 ...................................................... 42

5.3.1 粒子群算法 .................................................................................................... 42

5.3.2 混沌粒子群算法 ........................................................................................... 43

5.4 仿真算例 .............................................................................................................. 45

5.5 本章小结 ............................................................................................................. 48

第六章总结与展望 ...................................................................................................... 49

6.1 总结 ..................................................................................................................... 49

6.2 展望 ..................................................................................................................... 50

参考文献 ........................................................................................................................ 51

在读期间公开发表的论文和承担科研项目及取得成果 ............................................ 55

致谢 .............................................................................................................................. 56

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摘要：

摘要21世纪以来，科学技术取得了巨大的进步，社会经济得到高速的发展，人们的生活水平得到了显著的提高。但是由于自然因素或社会因素的作用，频发的非常规突发事件给国家和人民带来了重大的人员伤亡和巨大的经济损失。这些严重的后果让我们深刻地意识到提高应急管理水平的重要性和紧迫性。余姚水灾救援过程中出现的物资哄抢、鲁甸地震救援过程中出现的救援物资供需不符等事件更加让我们意识到提高应急物资调度效率的重要性。应急物资调度是应急管理中重要的一个环节，制定出合理的物资调度方案对提高救援效率有着重大意义。本文在分析国内外研究现状的基础上，同时结合非常规突发事件和应急物流的特性，发现目前学者们的大多数研究假定物资需求...

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