物流运作多重标度特性的实证研究

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3.0 陈辉 2024-11-19 5 4 4.2MB 71 页 15积分
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I
摘 要
人类自身复杂多变，我们周围的世界同样庞杂且相互关联。自然界网络和社
会网络中无穷节点的连接繁杂多样，而人类作为世界的主宰者，其个人行为是决
定万物发展变化的内在驱动力，当我们把研究对象缩小到个人行为规律时，这些
定量分析的微妙和震撼的成果开创了“人类动力学”这一新的研究方向。人类动
力学的研究侧重于针对微观个体的行为机制刻画人类行为，它揭开了人类动力学
模型研究的热潮，不同学科都给予密切关注，其研究工作的迅猛发展，使人类对
自然界和人类本身的认识产生了质的飞跃。
本文通过实证案例描绘任务限制型模式的标度特性，捕捉工作模式的人类动
力学行为特性，得到以下结论：
首先，本文统计了进出境物流运作的数据，考察包括全程运作的时间间隔分布、
信息流和实物流运作的时间间隔分布的三类统计分布。发现这些具有统计意义的
变量都具有某些共同特征，明显与单一的泊松过程或幂律分布的性质相异，尤其
是具有幂律尾巴的单峰分布的标度特性。分布曲线左部具有较小波峰且含有极大
值，右部具有明显的胖尾并可用幂函数近似拟合的形态特征。近似拟合的幂指数
在1.53 到2.59 之间，。
其次，本文深入考察了供应链进境网络的关键三方主体（境外供应商、境外承
运商、境内报关代理公司）在各自业务行为内的时间统计特征，分析内容包括供
货时间间隔、清关时间间隔、运输时间间隔三类分布，结果表明任务限制型工作
模式下，各行为主体的动力学标度特征与泊松分布或幂律分布不同，各行为分布
呈现具有幂律尾巴的单峰分布规律，近似拟合的幂律指数范围为[1.31,2.21]。
最后，本文同样考察了供应链出境网络的关键三方主体（境外采购商、境内
承运商、境外采购商的承运商）在各自业务行为的时间统计特征，分析订货时间
间隔分布、清关时间间隔分布、运输时间间隔分布。统计结果显示任务限制型工
作模式下，各行为主体的动力学标度特征与泊松分布或幂律分布不同，各行为分
布呈现具有幂律尾巴的单峰分布规律，近似拟合的幂律指数范围在[1.21,2.04]间。
这些标度特性反应出，该供应链网络的任务限制型行为模式与泊松分布和幂律
分布不同，呈现出具有幂律尾巴的单峰分布的标度特性。并且推测 Vázquez 等人
将人类动力学划分为两个普适类是不充分的，可能存在不同于 Barabási 模型的新
的人类动力学机制。
关键词：人类动力学 幂律分布 泊松分布 时间间隔 物流运作
II
ABSTRACT
Mankind itself is complicated and changeable, the world around us heterogeneous
and interrelated either. The connection of infinite nodes with each other in the nature
networks and social networks are complex and diverse. The development and changes
of society are driven by individual activities as human beings play the role of the master
of the whole world. The new creative research direction “Human Dynamics” as a result
of the subtle and shocking quantitative analysis when we narrow the research interest
into individual behavior. The human dynamics research focus on describing the human
behavior on the basis of mechanism of the micro-characterization, it has been opening a
great mass fever for the study of dynamical model, it has attractd closely concern of
several disciplines. Bring a qualitative leap to the recognition of the nature and human
beings owe to the rapid development.
In this thesis, we describe the scaling characteristics of the mission limited behavior
mode via empirical case, capature real properties of work pattern behavior of human
dynamic. Main results are as following:
Firstly, we take the whole data of inbound and outbound operation in a third party
logistics company as the empirical object, we analyzed the the inter-event time
distributions for whole operation, the information flow and the physical flow. We found
that the statistical variables have the scaling characteristics of unimodal distribution
with a power-law tail in 16 statistical distributions, that is to say, obviously exists a peak
in each distribution, the shape of left part closes to Poisson distribution, the right part
has a heavy-tailed scaling feature. Furthermore, the power index is located between 1.53
and 2.59.
Secondly, observe in depth the respective business practices of the main three
organizers of the supply chain (external supply provider, foreigner forwarders, customs
agents）in relevant inbound logistical operation. Including three kinds of distributions,
supply time interval, customs clearence time interval and transportation time interval.
The results show that the scaling characteristics of the three organizers in inbound
supply chain network are different from Poisson distribution and Power-law tail,
showing a single-peak distribution with a fat-tail.in the task-limited mode. The range of
the approximate fitted power-law exponent are [1.31,2.08].
Thirdly, study in depth the respective business practices of the main three organizers
III
of the supply chain (foreigner buyers, forwarders, foreigner buyer’s forwarders) in
relevant outbound logistical operation. Including three kinds of distributions, order time
interval, customs clearence time interval and transportation time interval. The results
show that the scaling characteristics of the three organizers in outbund supply chain
network are different from Poisson distribution and Power-law tail, showing a
single-peak distribution with a fat-tail.in the task-limited mode. Furthermore, the power
index is located between 1.21 and 2.04.
These properties reflect the difference between the mission limited behavior mode in
the supply chain field and Poisson distribution or Power-law distribution, have the
scaling characteristics of unimodal distribution with a power-law tail. It may be inferred
that the hypothesis is inadequate, which claimed that the human dynamics can be
classified as two discrete university classes. Consequently, there may be a new human
dynamics mechanism that is different from the classical Barabási model.
Key Word: human dynamics, Poisson distribution, Power-law
distribution, time inter-event, logistical operation
IV
目 录
中文摘要
ABSTRACT
第一章 绪 论 ............................................................................................................. 1
§1.1 研究背景及研究意义 .......................................................................................... 1
§1.2 本文主要工作 ...................................................................................................... 3
第二章 研究现状及进展 ............................................................................................. 6
§2.1 BARABÁSI 模型 ......................................................................................................6
§2.2 VÁZQUEZ 普适类模型 ...........................................................................................7
§2.2.1 信件联络模式 ................................................................................................8
§2.2.2 电邮通信模式 ................................................................................................8
§2.2.3 网页浏览 ........................................................................................................9
§2.2.4 图书馆借阅 ....................................................................................................9
§2.2.5 在线游戏 ......................................................................................................10
§2.3 其它人类动力学实证结论 ................................................................................ 10
§2.3.1 信件联络 ......................................................................................................11
§2.3.2 网页浏览 ......................................................................................................11
§2.3.3 短消息通讯 ..................................................................................................12
§2.3.4 金融活动 ......................................................................................................12
§2.3.5 在线电影 ......................................................................................................13
第三章 人类动力学相关标度特性 ...........................................................................14
§3.1 泊松分布及其应用 ............................................................................................ 14
§3.1.1 泊松分布 ......................................................................................................14
§3.1.2 泊松过程的数学含义 ..................................................................................15
§3.2 幂律分布理论及其发展现状 ............................................................................ 15
§3.2.1 幂律分布 ......................................................................................................16
§3.2.2 幂律分布研究的发展现状 ..........................................................................17
§3.2.3 幂律分布的动力学影响 ..............................................................................19
§3.3 单峰分布 ............................................................................................................ 19
第四章 货物进出境运作的标度特性 .......................................................................21
§4.1 实证对象 ............................................................................................................ 21
§4.2 数据说明 ............................................................................................................ 22
§4.3 数据统计方法 .................................................................................................... 24
V
§4.3.2 幂指数估计方法 ..........................................................................................25
§4.3.3 柯尔莫哥洛夫-斯米尔诺夫检验法 ............................................................ 26
§4.3.4 误差线 ..........................................................................................................27
§4.4 全程时间长度的统计特征 ................................................................................ 28
§4.5 信息流的统计特征 ............................................................................................ 30
§4.5.1 进境货物到货通知日期与仓库通知日期的时间间隔分布 ......................30
§4.5.2 进境货物单证齐备日期与海关备案日期的时间间隔分布 ......................30
§4.5.3 出境货物收到发票日期与单证交接日期的时间间隔分布 ......................31
§4.6 实物流的统计特征 ............................................................................................ 32
§4.6.1 进境货物离机场日期与到机场日期的时间间隔分布 ..............................32
§4.6.2 进境货物到机场日期与运输日期的时间间隔分布 ..................................32
§4.6.3 进境海运货物入库日期与还箱日期的时间间隔分布 ..............................33
§4.6.4 出境货物出库日期与实际出港（航）日期的时间间隔分布 ..................34
§4.7 本章小结 ............................................................................................................ 35
第五章 供应链主体进境运作的标度特性 ...............................................................36
§5.1 数据说明 ............................................................................................................ 36
§5.2 数据统计 ............................................................................................................ 38
§5.2.1 幂指数估计值 ..............................................................................................38
§5.2.2 Kolmogorov-Smirnov 统计量 ...................................................................... 38
§5.2.3 误差线 ..........................................................................................................39
§5.3 节点度分布 ........................................................................................................ 39
§5.4 境外供应商行为的标度特性 ............................................................................ 40
§5.4.1 日供货的时间间隔分布 ..............................................................................41
§5.4.2 供货全程的时间间隔分布 ..........................................................................42
§5.5 境外承运商行为的标度特征 ............................................................................ 42
§5.5.1 始发地清关的时间间隔分布 ......................................................................43
§5.5.2 始发地日运输的时间间隔分布 ..................................................................43
§5.5.3 国际运输的时间间隔分布 ..........................................................................44
§5.6 报关代理公司行为的标度特性 ......................................................................... 45
§5.6.1 目的地清关的时间间隔分布 ......................................................................45
§5.6.2 目的地日运输的时间间隔分布 ..................................................................46
§5.7 本章小结 ............................................................................................................ 47
第六章 供应链主体出境运作的标度特性 ...............................................................49
VI
§6.1 数据说明和数据分析方法 ................................................................................ 49
§6.2 数据统计 ............................................................................................................ 50
§6.2.1 幂指数估计值 ..............................................................................................50
§6.2.2 Kolmogorov-Smirnov 统计量 ...................................................................... 51
§6.2.3 误差线 ..........................................................................................................51
§6.3 节点度分布 ........................................................................................................ 51
§6.4 出境运作境外采购商行为的标度特性 ............................................................ 52
§6.4.1 日订货的时间间隔分布 ..............................................................................52
§6.4.2 全程订货的时间间隔分布 ...........................................................................53
§6.5 境内承运商行为的标度特性 ............................................................................ 54
§6.5.1 出境货物始发地日运输的时间间隔分布 ..................................................54
§6.5.2 出境货物始发地清关的时间间隔分布 ......................................................55
§6.6 出境采购商的承运商的标度特性 .................................................................... 56
§6.7 本章小结 ............................................................................................................ 57
第七章 结束语 ........................................................................................................... 59
参考文献 .........................................................................................................................61
在读期间公开发表的论文和承担科研项目及取得成果 ............................................ 66
致 谢 .........................................................................................................................67
摘要：

I摘要人类自身复杂多变，我们周围的世界同样庞杂且相互关联。自然界网络和社会网络中无穷节点的连接繁杂多样，而人类作为世界的主宰者，其个人行为是决定万物发展变化的内在驱动力，当我们把研究对象缩小到个人行为规律时，这些定量分析的微妙和震撼的成果开创了“人类动力学”这一新的研究方向。人类动力学的研究侧重于针对微观个体的行为机制刻画人类行为，它揭开了人类动力学模型研究的热潮，不同学科都给予密切关注，其研究工作的迅猛发展，使人类对自然界和人类本身的认识产生了质的飞跃。本文通过实证案例描绘任务限制型模式的标度特性，捕捉工作模式的人类动力学行为特性，得到以下结论：首先，本文统计了进出境物流运作的数据，考察包括...

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作者：陈辉 分类：高等教育资料 价格：15积分 属性：71 页 大小：4.2MB 格式：PDF 时间：2024-11-19

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