铁路行包专列需求预测及应用研究

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3.0 高德中 2025-01-09 5 4 3.66MB 74 页 15积分

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摘要

我国铁路系统正在经历着大发展和大建设，向着运行系统网络化和快速化的

方向发展。动车组和高速铁路的开行将为铁路货运释放大量运力空间，现代物流

向铁路运输的引入引起了铁路部门对铁路运输参与现代物流快运的重视。在这样

的背景下，对铁路站点进行行包专列的需求预测是对专列开行的可行性分析及后

续工作的开展起到积极的指导作用。

论文主要内容是对铁路货运站点开行铁路行包专列的运输量及 OD 分布与货

种结构等货运特征量的预测，从而为铁路行包专列的开行方案提供数据支持，对

行包专列开行后的配套设施建设、行包运输企业的运营管理等提供参考依据。论

文首先对铁路行包专列概念及其相关信息做了大致介绍，分析预测了我国行包专

列的现状及其趋势。然后针对课题特点，对适用于铁路行包专列运量预测的方法

进行了罗列与概括，指出其应用条件、特点等。论文主要研究领域是小区域铁路

货运站的铁路行包站点货运量预测，即为铁路行包站的开行做可行性分析中的运

量预测单元，从行包货运站腹地的经济社会发展状况入手，通过区域经济发展预

测、产业规模及结构预测、综合运输方式划分预测、行业市场占有率预测等，得

出铁路行包产生结果。行包运量预测结果包括行包总量预测、OD 预测、种类预

测等，分已开行行包专列的站点和未开行行包专列的站点。进而从行包运输量预

测结果推算及规划后续的事宜，包括行包专列的开行计划安排（开行对数、车皮

数、车皮类别及吨位、开行时间安排、停靠站点及装卸货量等）、行包货运站用地

规划预测、行包仓储空间预测、行包集疏运计划等。

预测的方法是论文的重要手段及技术核心。通过参考相关预测研究方法，结

合铁路行包专列的课题特点，创造性的提出一系列适合铁路行包专列情况的预测

系统。应用的预测方法包括增长率法、原单位法、相关因素法、重力模型法、交

通四阶段法、灰色系统等。

预测原则包括定性与定量分析相结合；宏观系统性与微观个别性相结合；联

系发展、适度超前、综合分析及抽象具体的方法论。预测结果的准确性以及相应

的预见性措施及政策的施行需要一定的管理控制方法的应用。运营管理措施的影

响和预测数据的准确性之间应该相辅相成、互为因果，形成一个良好的动态循环

系统。

关键词：铁路行包专列需求预测适行包率

ABSTRACT

China's railway system is undergoing large-scale development and construction

which headed to networked and rapid operation system. The opening of CRH and high

speed rail released large amount of capacity space for railway freight. The introduction

of rail transport in modern logistics aroused the railway sector's attention to the

participation of rail transport in modern logistics. Under such background, forecasting

the demand of Luggage and Parcel Express Special Train for railway station plays an

active and guiding role in feasibility analysis and the carrying out of things followed.

The main contents of this paper is though the prediction of freight volume, OD

distribution, freight structure of railway freight station which has Luggage and Parcel

Express Special Train to provide data support for the running scheme of the Luggage

and Parcel Express Special Train and provide reference for the construction of

supporting facilities and the operational management of related enterprises. Firstly,

This paper roughly introduces the concept of Luggage and Parcel Express Special

Train and related information, and analyzes its current situation and the future trend

Then according to the characteristics of the issue, this paper enumerates and

summarizes the suitable method of forecasting the quantity of cargo for the Luggage

and Parcel Express Special and points out the requirements and characteristics in using

them. The main research areas of this paper is the freight volume forecast of the

Luggage and Parcel Express Special Train station in small region, specifically, that is

to do the freight volume unit in feasibility analysis of the running of the Luggage and

Parcel Express Special Train. Based on the economic situation of the central part of the

Luggage and Parcel Express Special Train station, the result of the generating of

Luggage and Parcel Express Special Train could be reached through regional economic

development forecast, industry size and structure forecast, comprehensive

transportation mode divide forecast and industry market share forecast, etc. The

forecast result of the Luggage and Parcel includes the total volume forecast, OD

forecast, type forecast, etc. the stations are divided into two types: running station and

not running station. And then from the forecasting outcome, we could calculate and

plan the following matters, including the opening schedule（trips, the amount of wagon,

the species and tonnage of the wagon, run-time arrangement, the docking site and

loading and unloading volume, etc.）, the land use planning forecast of the Luggage

and Parcel station, luggage and parcel warehouse volume prediction, luggage and

parcel collection and distribution schedule，Etc.

The method of prediction is the most important measure and the core technology

of the paper. Through studying related forecasting methods and combining with the

characteristics of the issue, this paper proposes a series of creative forecasting system

adapted to the Luggage and Parcel Express Special Train. the supplying forecasting

methods includes the method of growth rate, the method of original unit, the method of

relevant factors, the method of gravity model, the method of four-stage transportation

planning, grey system, etc.

The principles of forecasting include combined qualitative and quantitative

analysis; combined macro-systematic and micro-individuality; methodology of

connecting growth, exceed appropriately, analysis comprehensively, concretization.

The accuracy of forecasting and the implementation of related predictability measures

need some application of management and control method. The effect of operation

management measures and the accuracy of forecasting ought to be complementary and

reciprocal causation，and form a favorable dynamic circulatory system.

Kyewords：Luggage and Parcel Express Special Train，Demand

Forecast，Fitting Transport rate for Luggage and Parcel

中文摘要

ABSTRACT

第一章绪论 ........................................................ 1

§1.1 选题背景及意义 .............................................. 1

§1.2 主要研究内容和方法 .......................................... 2

1.2.1 研究内容 .................................................... 2

1.2.2 研究方法 .................................................... 2

§1.3 研究流程 .................................................... 3

第二章行包运输需求预测相关理论综述 ................................ 5

§2.1 预测概念及其分类 ............................................ 5

2.1.1 定性预测 .................................................... 5

2.1.2 定量预测 .................................................... 5

§2.2 铁路行包专列货运站腹地范围划分相关理论及方法 ................ 5

§2.3 基于主成分分析法的广义回归神经网络（GRNN）模型 ............ 7

§2.5 综合运输资源的时间配置理论 .................................. 9

第三章我国铁路行包运输现状分析及预测 .............................. 11

§3.1 行包专列运输概况 ............................................ 11

3.1.1 概述 ........................................................ 11

3.1.2 发展历程 .................................................... 11

3.1.3 开行条件 ................................................... 12

3.1.4 运输组织 ................................................... 12

3.1.5 经营管理 ................................................... 14

3.1.6 价格体系 ................................................... 14

3.1.7 开行方案 ................................................... 15

§3.2 相关铁路行包专列案例介绍 ................................... 16

3.2.1 国内相关城市铁路行包专列站点介绍 ........................... 16

3.2.2 国外相关城市铁路行包专列项目介绍 ........................... 17

§3.3 行包专列特点分析 ........................................... 17

§3.4 现代物流发展趋势及铁路行包的发展趋势和地位 ................. 19

§3.5 我国铁路行包运输总量分析及预测 ............................. 21

3.6.1 铁路行包运输量与经济发展关系的分析方法——弹性分析法 ....... 22

3.6.2 铁路行包总量影响因素分析 ................................... 23

3.6.3 基于 GM（1，1）模型的灰色系统的铁路行包发送量预测 ......... 23

§3.7 铁路行包运输分布特征分析 ................................... 25

3.7.1 铁路行包运输线路分布特征 ................................... 25

3.7.2 铁路行包运输区域分布特征 ................................... 25

§3.8 铁路行包快运货源结构分析 ................................... 27

第四章已开行行包专列站点行包运输预测 ............................. 28

§4.1 行包站点生成总量预测 ....................................... 28

4.1.1 增长系数法 ................................................. 28

4.1.2 时间序列法——以灰色模型为例 ............................... 29

4.1.3 其他预测方法 ............................................... 30

§4.2 行包站点货运 OD 分布预测 ................................... 31

第五章新建铁路行包业务站点行包运输预测 ........................... 33

§5.1 建模思路与技术路线 ......................................... 34

5.1.1 建模思路 ................................................... 34

5.1.2 技术路线 ................................................... 35

§5.2 铁路行包运输总量预测 ....................................... 35

§5.3 区域货运总量预测 ........................................... 36

5.3.1 回归分析法 ................................................. 37

§5.4 货物外运系数



的确定 ...................................... 38

§5.5 适行包率



的确定 .......................................... 39

§5.6 铁路行包承担的货运比例



的确定 ............................ 41

5.6.1 铁路行包货物运输 SWOT 分析 ................................ 41

5.6.2 概率模型法 ................................................. 43

5.6.3 抽象货运方式分担模型 ....................................... 45

§5.7 诱增行包运量预测 ........................................... 45

§5.8 铁路行包专列 OD 分布预测 ................................... 47

5.8.1 OD 小区划分 ............................................... 48

5.8.2 重力模型法 ................................................. 48

§5.9 铁路行包站点用地预测 ....................................... 51

第六章案例分析——苍南县铁路行包专列项目 ......................... 52

§6.1 苍南铁路行包项目腹地范围划分及社会经济发展现状 ............. 52

§6.2 腹地货运总量现状及预测 ..................................... 53

§6.3 腹地货物外运系数 ........................................... 54

§6.4 适行包率 ................................................... 54

§6.5 行包运输市场占有率 ......................................... 54

§6.6 行包生成总量预测 ........................................... 55

§6.7 货种结构分析及其预测 ....................................... 55

§6.8 货运 OD 流向分析 ........................................... 57

第七章结论与展望 ................................................. 59

附录 .............................................................. 61

参考文献 ........................................................... 66

在读期间公开发表的论文和承担科研项目及取得成果 ..................... 69

致谢 ............................................................. 70

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