中国宏观经济失衡的制度性根源——基于非均衡外贸经济发

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摘要

近年来，中国的宏观经济发展出现了巨大的失衡。这种失衡的局面十分严重，

并主要表现为国内的投资过快增长、储蓄过剩、消费严重不足、国际收支“双顺差”

持续增加、外汇储备规模大幅增加、国内流动性过剩、人民币面临巨大的升值压力，

整个国民经济走向严重失衡的发展轨道。失衡使我国经济的未来发展面临巨大成本

和代价，影响经济的长远健康发展。严重的宏观经济失衡问题已经逐渐引起国内外

学者的广泛关注，如何改变中国宏观经济失衡的状况，使中国经济回复到正常的发

展轨道上来，其已经成为摆在中国学者们面前的一道历史性课题。

中国的经济发展开放程度达到了历史上前所未有的高度，与世界经济的发展联

系相当紧密，在这种开放经济的条件下，实现我国经济的内外均衡发展已经成为宏

观经济发展中重要的政策考量。我国的经济发展经历了计划向市场的历史性和体制

性转型，在转型之中我国经济发展的活力得到了很大的激发，但是不可否认的是在

快速实行市场化推进的过程中也存在着各种制度和战略发展的相对滞后性。在改革

开放后，中国大力地推行出口导向的外贸发展战略，并配以各种制度和政策，整个

经济在外贸发展的拉动下实现了质的飞跃。我国的经济实力得到了相当大的提升，

但是历史发展的惯性使我国的经济过度依赖外部的需求，整个经济的结构发展配置

出现比较大的扭曲，贸易部门的发展超过非贸易部门，出口的过度增长加剧了我国

国际收支的失衡，外汇占款的大量投放使国内的流动性泛滥，国际资本纷纷涌入我

国加剧经济的泡沫化，使经济和金融的风险不断增加。

外贸发展的出口战略性导向已经非常不合时宜，其逐渐影响到我国未来经济的

发展，过去成功的战略制度随着历史环境的变迁已经需要加以调整，固守一成不变

的发展战略制度只能陷入被动，中国的经济发展需要市场化改革和思路，需要构建

新的发展制度模式，经济环境的变化正呼唤着新的制度的产生，值此之际，应积极

地摒弃过去的不合时宜的发展制度模式，构建新的制度战略来实现新的环境下的历

史性发展。本文主要将围绕过去中国推行的以出口为导向的非均衡外贸发展战略制

度，通过研究我国宏观经济失衡的这种制度痼疾，说明我国经济已经发展到必须对

此进行重大调整的关键时刻，只有彻底摆脱旧的贸易出口导向发展的战略思路，中

国宏观经济才能实现均衡，经济未来的发展才会呈现出另一番繁荣的景象。

本文的研究将涵盖统计年鉴中的大部分宏观数据，论文在全面地考察中国目前

经济的失衡运行状况后，指出中国目前内外经济失衡的根本原因是中国实现非均衡

的外贸经济发展战略所导致的，要逐步消除我国的内外经济失衡，就必须从调整该

经济发展战略着手，国内经济政策的重心就是要改革和调整长期来实行的出口导向

战略制度，并辅之以其他相关制度的调整，从而实现中国经济协调、均衡、稳定的

发展。

关键词：宏观经济失衡非均衡外贸经济发展战略制度根源

ABSTRACT

In recent years, China's macroeconomic development has witnessed a huge imbalance.

This situation is very serious, which mainly as the excessive growth of domestic

investment, savings glut, a serious shortage of consumption, the balance of payments

"double surplus" continuing to increase, a substantial increase in foreign exchange

reserves, domestic liquidity surplus, the tremendous pressure of the appreciation of the

RMB, serious imbalance in the entire national economy to the development of track.

Imbalance makes the future development of China's economy face huge economic cost

and price. That affects the economy's long-term healthy development. The serious

macroeconomic imbalances have gradually aroused wide attention from scholars. How to

change the situation of China's macroeconomic imbalances, return China's economy to

the track of normal development, which has become a historical topic placed in front of

Chinese scholars.

The openness of China's economic development has reached unprecedented levels in

history. Our connection with the world economy are very close. Under the conditions of

open economy, achieving the balanced development between China's internal and

external economy has become an important policy consideration in the macroeconomic

development. China's economic development has experienced a historic and institutional

transformation from plan to market. The vitality of China's economic development has

been greatly stimulated in the transformation.But it is undeniable that with the fast

forwarding the implementation of market-oriented economic development, there also

exist the relative lag of a variety of systems and strategic development. After the reform

and opening up, China vigorously pursued export-oriented foreign trade development

strategy and carried out a variety of systems and policies. The whole economy driven by

foreign trade has achieved a qualitative leap. China's economic strength has been

considerably improved, but the inertia of the historical development makes our country's

economy too dependent on external demand, thus the configuration of the whole

economic structure development appears relatively large distortions, such that the

development of the trade sector has outstripped that of non-trade sector. Excessive growth

of exports exacerbated the imbalance of international payments. The put of a large

number monetary base to stabilize the exchange rate into circulation makes domestic

liquidity flooding. The influx of international capital have exacerbated the economic

bubble in China, which has increased economic and financial risk.

The strategic orientation of foreign trade export development has been very out of date,

they gradually affect our future economic development. With the historical environment

changing, the past successful strategic system needs to be adjusted . Stick to the rigid

strategic development system can only be passive. China's economic development needs

market-oriented reforms and ideas, and needs to build a new development system model.

The changes in the economic environment are calling the production of new system. On

this occasion, the past outdated development system model should be actively abandoned,

and construct new strategic system to achieve historic development under the new

environment. This paper will focus on the non-equilibrium export-oriented foreign trade

development strategy and system China Implemented in the past. By studying such a

chronic disease of system in the macroeconomic imbalances, this paper indicates that

China's economy has grown to be the extent that needs a major adjustment at this critical

moment. Only to rid itself of the old ideas about export-oriented strategic development,

can China's macroeconomic balance be achieved, and will the future development of the

economy be showing another round of prosperity.

This study will cover most of the macro data in the Statistical Yearbook. After

comprehensively studying the imbalance operating conditions of current China's

economy, this paper pointed out that the fundamental reason of China's current economic

imbalances within and outside is that non-equilibrium economic development strategy

about foreign trade China Implemented. To gradually eliminate internal and external

economic imbalances, it is necessary to adjust the economic development strategy from

the start. The focus of domestic economic policy is to reform and adjust the

export-oriented strategy system implemented in the long-term and assisted by the

adjustment of other relevant systems, so as to realize our economy coordinated, balanced

and stable development.

Key Word：Macroeconomic Imbalances, Unbalanced Trade, Economic

Development Strategy, Root of System

中文摘要

ABSTRACT

第一章绪论 .........................................................1

§1.1 研究背景和意义 ..............................................1

§1.1.1 研究背景 ...............................................1

§1.1.2 研究意义 ..............................................2

§1.2 国内外研究现状 ..............................................4

§1.2.1 中国经济失衡研究的相关文献 .............................4

§1.2.2 中国非均衡经济发展战略制度绩效的相关文献 ...............5

§1.2.3 中国非均衡外贸经济发展战略制度研究的相关文献 ...........6

§1.2.4 现有文献的总体评述 .....................................8

§1.3 研究方法、思路及结构安排 ....................................9

§1.3.1 研究方法 ...............................................9

§1.3.2 研究思路 ..............................................11

§1.3.3 研究范围的界定 ........................................11

§1.3.4 结构安排 .............................................14

§1.4 创新之处及不足与局限 .......................................14

§1.4.1 创新之处 ..............................................14

§1.4.2 本文的不足与局限 ......................................15

第二章经济均衡发展的理论基础及概念界定 .............................16

§2.1 经济均衡发展的理论基础 .....................................16

§2.1.1 关乎国家利益经济对等性发展的发展经济学理论 ............16

§2.1.2 关乎制度均衡化调整的西方制度经济学理论 ................23

§2.1.3 关乎宏观经济均衡的西方国际金融理论 ....................28

§2.2 均衡概念的研究界定 .........................................29

§2.2.1 内部均衡的经典化界定 ..................................30

§2.2.2 外部均衡的历史化界定 ..................................31

§2.2.3 本文对内外均衡的界定和理解 ............................33

第三章中国宏观经济失衡的现状分析 ...................................37

§3.1 中国宏观经济失衡的总体状况 .................................37

§3.1.1 中国经济的需求支出层面的失衡 ..........................37

§3.1.2 中国区域经济的区位发展失衡 ............................48

§3.2 中国宏观经济失衡的具体状况 .................................52

§3.2.1 中国内部非均衡状况 ....................................52

§3.2.2 中国外部非均衡状况 ....................................55

§3.3 中国非均衡外贸发展的现状 ...................................58

§3.3.1 中国外贸发展的状况 ....................................58

§3.3.2 中国外贸依存度的状况 ..................................63

第四章中国非均衡外贸经济发展战略制度的实证分析 .....................67

§4.1 非均衡外贸经济发展战略制度的总览 ...........................67

§4.1.1 外贸发展战略制度的历程 ................................68

§4.1.2 出口贸易导向的外贸发展战略制度 ........................68

§4.2 非均衡外贸发展对宏观金融经济失衡影响的实证分析 .............71

§4.2.1 非均衡外贸收支差额对我国货币金融秩序的破坏 ............71

§4.2.2 非均衡外贸外汇占款流动性泛滥对我国资本市场的影响 ......82

§4.3 非均衡外贸发展对宏观实体经济失衡影响的实证分析 .............92

§4.3.1 非均衡外贸发展对我国产业结构的扭曲影响 ................92

§4.3.2 非均衡外贸发展对我国区域经济发展差距拉大的极化影响 ...122

§4.4 非均衡外贸发展对我国资源消耗及环境污染的影响 ..............141

§4.5 非均衡外贸发展对我国宏观经济失衡影响的结论 ................171

第五章中国非均衡外贸经济发展战略制度性调整的政策建议 ..............174

§5.1 非均衡外贸经济发展战略的不可持续性及其调整的必要性 ........174

§5.2 非均衡外贸经济发展战略的指导性调整策略 ....................176

§5.2.1 变革出口导向的外贸战略制度 ...........................176

§5.2.2 调整内外经济结构 .....................................177

§5.2.3 正确定位中国在全球产业链中未来的地位 .................178

§5.2.4 转变贸易增长方式 .....................................178

§5.3 非均衡外贸经济发展战略的灵活性调整策略 ....................179

§5.3.1 调整外资利用的政策 ...................................179

§5.3.2 改革外汇管理体制 .....................................180

§5.3.3 完善灵活汇率形成机制 .................................183

§5.3.4 强化资本管制的力度 ...................................185

第六章结论与展望 ..................................................187

§6.1 主要结论 ..................................................187

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摘要：

摘要近年来，中国的宏观经济发展出现了巨大的失衡。这种失衡的局面十分严重，并主要表现为国内的投资过快增长、储蓄过剩、消费严重不足、国际收支“双顺差”持续增加、外汇储备规模大幅增加、国内流动性过剩、人民币面临巨大的升值压力，整个国民经济走向严重失衡的发展轨道。失衡使我国经济的未来发展面临巨大成本和代价，影响经济的长远健康发展。严重的宏观经济失衡问题已经逐渐引起国内外学者的广泛关注，如何改变中国宏观经济失衡的状况，使中国经济回复到正常的发展轨道上来，其已经成为摆在中国学者们面前的一道历史性课题。中国的经济发展开放程度达到了历史上前所未有的高度，与世界经济的发展联系相当紧密，在这种开放经济的条件下，实...

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