环渤海地区金融成长差异实证研究

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摘要

金融是现代经济的核心，理论和实践都表明，区域经济的振兴离不开区域金

融的发展，区域金融是促进区域经济发展的重要因素。开发环渤海地区需要其金

融体系的支持，而环渤海地区金融发展水平的相对落后和不均衡，在一定程度上

阻碍了环渤海地区经济的进一步发展。因此，对于环渤海地区金融成长差异进行

实证描述和深入研究是十分重要和必要的。

本文在古典经济学中对资本的论述、区域经济学理论、金融发展理论以及区

域金融理论的基础上构建了环渤海地区金融成长差异实证研究的分析框架。在大

量理论铺垫和收集数据的前提下，本文对环渤海地区的区域金融发展指标、区域

金融结构指标、区域金融成长差异的行业比较以及环渤海地区金融综合竞争力计

量指标体系进行实证研究，以评价环渤海地区金融成长差异状况，以及存在的问

题。在此过程中，逐步验证了传统区域经济学理论和区域金融理论中的部分观点，

如增长极理论、点——轴理论、中心——外围理论和梯度转移理论等；也通过对

环渤海地区金融发展指标、金融结构指标、金融综合竞争力的计量分析，得出了

很多国内学者将威廉姆森倒“U”形曲线直接套用在我国区域金融成长理论中是不

科学的结论，至少在环渤海地区金融成长差异的实证中是不合适的。本文也由此

揭示了环渤海地区发达地区与欠发达地区的经济发展水平、金融成长状况、经济

开放程度、科技研发能力以及基础设施建设等诸多方面的显著差异，进而提出更

好地改善基础设施、改进经济发展条件、利用区域金融资源等措施以促进环渤海

地区整体健康、有序、快速发展的政策建议。

在数据的选择上不仅采用了时点数据，也采用了时序数据；不仅进行了横向

比较，也进行了纵向比较。在研究过程中采取定性研究与定量分析相结合、理论

研究与实证分析相结合的方法，同时也不仅仅局限于描述统计的数据分析，更多

地采用经济计量的方法，主成分分析、因子分析、聚类分析、层次分析等较新的

计量方法都在本文中有较好的体现。我们力图采用多种经济指标，使用不同的衡

量方法，多角度地进行综合比较，以全面、客观地反映环渤海地区金融成长的差

异。

本文的创新之处在于：第一，本文在国内所有有关区域金融成长的文献中，

尚属首次对于我国环渤海地区的金融成长差异进行实证分析，无论从区域的选择

方面，还是实证数据的贡献度方面，都对我国其他经济区的金融成长方向和评价，

提供了借鉴；第二，在金融综合竞争力指标体系的计量分析中，样本城市中地级

城市占了一半，指标设置也主要以地级城市为参照。

最终，本文提出了对于促进环渤海地区金融成长的深入探讨和对策建议,包括

制定有利于环渤海地区金融成长的金融政策，建立多层次的环渤海地区金融中心，

健全环渤海地区金融组织体系，加强环渤海地区金融合作机制以及重塑环渤海地

区微观经济主体的金融努力程度。

关键字：环渤海地区金融成长差异实证

III

ABSTRACT

Finance is the core factor of modern economics. As theories and practice shows,

the development of regional economics depends on the prosperity of its finance, which

means that regional finance is an important element to push ahead the development of

regional economics. The support of financial system is needed to explore the

Circum-Bohai-Sea Region. And the relative laggard and imbalance of the

Circum-Bohai-Sea Region hinders the going-along of its economy in some extent.

Therefore, it is vital and necessary to make experimental description and research on the

Circum-Bohai-Sea Region.

The article constructs the analysis frame work of the experimental research on

financial growth differences of the Circum-Bohai-Sea Regional basing on capital

discoursing in classical economics, the theory of regional economics, finance

development and regional finance. In the condition of abundant relevant theories and

collected data, the article does experimental research on the regional financial

development index and regional financial structural index of the Circum-Bohai-Sea

Region, the industrial comparison of the regional financial differences and the

measurement indicator system of its financial overall competitiveness to evaluate the

different financial situation of the Circum-Bohai-Sea Region and its existing problems.

In this process, some points of view in the traditional regional economics and regional

finance are testified gradually, such as the theories of Point-axis, Center-external and

Gradient-transfer; Thorough the measurement analysis of the financial development

index, financial structural index and the financial overall competitiveness of the

Circum-Bohai-Sea Region, the article concludes that it is not scientific for some

domestic scholars to quote Williamson’s “U” curve as part of Chinese regional financial

growth theory, at least inappropriate in the experimental certification of the financial

growth differences of the Circum-Bohai-Sea Region. The article also reveals the notable

economic development level, financial growth status, economic openness, scientific

research capability and infrastructure construction differences between the region’s

developed and undeveloped areas and then raises policy recommendations on bettering

the infrastructure, improving the economic development condition, using regional

financial resources to promote the whole Circum-Bohai-Sea Region into a healthy,

ordered and quick developing status.

When selecting data, the author uses not only time-point data but also time-series

data; and not only horizontal but vertical comparison. During the process of research,

the article combines qualitative research and quantitative analysis and theory research

and experimental analysis. Meanwhile, it doesn’t just confine to describe the statistical

data analyzing, but uses much more econometric methods, for example, Principal

Component Analysis, Factor Analysis, Classifying Analysis and Analytic Hierarchy

Process (AHP) are all embodied well in this article. We try our best to use different

economic indexes as much as we can, to select diversifying measurement methods and

to compare them from multiple angles.

The innovation lies on the two below: firstly, among all the domestic papers

relevant to regional finance growth, the article gives experimental analysis on financial

growth differences of Chinese Circum-Bohai-Sea Region for the first time. Not only the

selection of region but also the contribution of experimental data, it provides reference

on financial growth direction and evaluation for other economic regions of China;

secondly, in the econometric analysis on the financial overall competitive index system,

the quantity of polar cities is more than a half in all the sample cities. The choosing of

index is based mainly on polar cities.

At last, the article does in-depth study on how to promote the financial growth of

the Circum-Bohai-Sea Region and offers advices, including making financial policies

which are good for the financial growth differences of the Circum-Bohai-Sea Region;

constructing the financial organization system of the region; strengthening the region’s

financial co-working system; and also re-constructing the financial endeavor of the

region’s micro-economical subject.

Key Word: Circum-Bohai-Sea Region, Financial Growth, Difference,

Experimental Analysis

中文摘要

ABSTRACT

第一章绪论 ...................................................................................................................1

§1.1 选题的理论背景...............................................................................................1

§1.2 选题的实践意义...............................................................................................3

§1.2.1 环渤海地区的范围及优势条件.............................................................4

§1.2.2 环渤海地区的经济特征.........................................................................5

§1.2.3 影响环渤海地区经济发展的制约因素.................................................8

§1.3 本文研究思路、内容框架及主要创新点.....................................................10

§1.3.1 研究思路...............................................................................................10

§1.3.2 内容框架...............................................................................................10

§1.3.3 主要创新点...........................................................................................11

第二章区域金融成长的一般理论分析 .................................................................... 13

§2.1 古典经济学对资本作用的论述.....................................................................13

§2.1.1 斯密的资本理论...................................................................................13

§2.1.2 哈罗德——多马增长模型...................................................................13

§2.1.3 古典经济学理论促进环渤海地区金融成长的指导意义...................14

§2.2 区域经济学理论.............................................................................................14

§2.2.1 区域经济学一般理论...........................................................................14

§2.2.2 区域经济学理论对促进环渤海地区金融成长的指导意义...............17

§2.3 金融发展理论.................................................................................................17

§2.3.1 金融发展理论的发展阶段...................................................................18

§2.3.2 戈德史密斯的金融结构论...................................................................18

§2.3.3 麦金农和肖的金融深化论...................................................................19

§2.3.4 赫尔曼一斯蒂格利茨的金融约束论...................................................20

§2.3.5 金融发展理论对促进环渤海地区金融成长的指导意义...................20

§2.4 区域金融成长理论.........................................................................................21

§2.4.1 区域金融的概念...................................................................................21

§2.4.2 区域金融成长.......................................................................................21

§2.4.3 区域金融成长对区域经济的作用.......................................................22

§2.4.4 区域金融成长的状态及其机制...........................................................25

§2.4.5 区域金融成长差异及其环境影响因素...............................................27

§2.5 古典经济学中的资本论述、区域经济学理论、金融发展理论与区域金融理

论的内在联系..........................................................................................................32

第三章环渤海地区金融成长差异概览 .................................................................... 35

§3.1 区域金融发展指标.........................................................................................35

§3.1.1 衡量指标与数据来源...........................................................................35

§3.1.2 环渤海地区金融成长差距...................................................................35

§3.2 区域金融结构指标.........................................................................................37

第四章环渤海地区金融成长差异的行业比较 ........................................................ 41

§4.1 环渤海地区银行业发展状况及聚类分析.....................................................41

§4.1.1 数据处理...............................................................................................41

§4.1.2 指标纳入...............................................................................................42

§4.1.3 权重的设定...........................................................................................44

§4.1.4 环渤海地区银行业发展差距...............................................................48

§4.2 环渤海地区证券市场现状及发展潜力模型及其聚类分析.........................50

§4.2.1 指标建立与研究方法...........................................................................50

§4.2.2 环渤海地区证券市场发展现状分析...................................................52

§4.2.3 环渤海地区证券市场发展潜力分析...................................................54

§4.3 环渤海地区保险业发展状况及聚类分析.....................................................57

§4.3.1 主成分分析法和因子分析法...............................................................57

§4.3.2 环渤海地区保险市场发展概览...........................................................59

§4.3.3 环渤海地区保险市场的因子分析和聚类分析...................................59

第五章环渤海地区金融综合竞争力指标体系的计量分析 .................................... 65

§5.1 文献综述.........................................................................................................65

§5.2 指标体系构建的系统方法与理论构想.........................................................68

§5.3 城市金融综合竞争力评价指标体系的设计原则.........................................70

§5.3.1 全面性原则...........................................................................................70

§5.3.2 可行性原则...........................................................................................70

§5.3.3 可比性原则...........................................................................................70

§5.3.4 层次性原则...........................................................................................70

§5.3.5 相关性原则...........................................................................................70

§5.3.6 启发性原则...........................................................................................70

§5.4 样本选择与数据处理方法.............................................................................71

§5.5 区域金融综合竞争力评价指标体系的选择和说明.....................................71

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摘要：

I摘要金融是现代经济的核心，理论和实践都表明，区域经济的振兴离不开区域金融的发展，区域金融是促进区域经济发展的重要因素。开发环渤海地区需要其金融体系的支持，而环渤海地区金融发展水平的相对落后和不均衡，在一定程度上阻碍了环渤海地区经济的进一步发展。因此，对于环渤海地区金融成长差异进行实证描述和深入研究是十分重要和必要的。本文在古典经济学中对资本的论述、区域经济学理论、金融发展理论以及区域金融理论的基础上构建了环渤海地区金融成长差异实证研究的分析框架。在大量理论铺垫和收集数据的前提下，本文对环渤海地区的区域金融发展指标、区域金融结构指标、区域金融成长差异的行业比较以及环渤海地区金融综合竞争力计量指...

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