财政支出对农村居民消费的影响—基于总量与结构的实证分析

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浙江财经学院硕士学位论文

摘要

近年来，我国国民经济保持了高速而稳定的增长。供给约束型的经济增长模

式逐渐被需求约束型取代。投资、消费和出口等需求因素已经成为促进我国经济

高速增长的关键所在。然而，当下之时各国的经济都受到了经济危机的影响。危

机之下，如何刺激居民消费和投资，是我国经济持续增长的金钥匙。农村是我国

最大和最基础的消费市场，超过全国总人口半数的农业人口是我国最大的消费群

体，因此，大力推进农民消费，改变农民消费观念是我国经济发展的重中之重。

现而今，由于城乡二元结构的制约，我国农村与城市的生活水平和消费水平有了

相当的差距。农村市场消费需求不足直接影响了农村居民的生活质量，限制了我

国国民经济的发展。

在此背景之下，本文不仅仅从农村居民消费总量角度对优化财政支出进行了

研究，最主要的是从消费结构的角度进行了分析，这是本文最大的创新之处。我

们将农村居民消费支出划分为两类，一类是生存型消费支出，一类是发展享受型

消费支出。后者占比越高，说明农村居民的消费质量越高，在某种程度上也可以

反映出农村居民生活质量越好。我国农村居民消费观念过于保守，消费结构不尽

合理。生存型消费支出比重偏高，而发展享受型消费支出却相对较低。引导农村

居民消费支出向弹性较高的发展享受型消费资料转移不仅可以带动相关产业的发

展，创造更多的就业岗位，从而增加农村居民收入，促进农村居民的进一步消费，

形成良性的循环，而且有益于提高农村居民的生活质量。本文通过考察财政支出

对农村居民消费支出总量以及生存型消费支出与发展享受型消费支出之间比例的

影响，客观地提出了优化财政支出、提升农村居民消费水平的相关政策建议。

本文简要介绍了有关财政支出与居民消费支出的相关理论，描述了近三十年

来我国财政支出与农村居民消费支出的发展现状。之后，通过数学模型的建立，

推导出了财政支出与农村居民消费支出的协整关系，并由此建立了计量模型。最

后通过近五年来的全国季度数据分析了财政支出规模、结构与农村居民消费水平

与结构的关系。通过实证分析，我们得出了相关结论。从总量上来说，财政支出

的增加能够增加农村居民消费支出，并能够提高发展享受型消费的支出比重。因

此，合理扩大财政支出规模对于促进农村居民消费，改善农村居民消费结构具有

重要意义。从结构上来说，各类财政支出对农村居民消费的影响不尽相同。我们

主要考察了一般公共服务支出、文科教支出、社会保障与就业支出、医疗卫生支

出以及农林水事务支出。通过实证分析发现，一般公共服务支出对农村居民消费

具有挤出效应，因此缩减一般公共服务支出具有必要性。文科教和社会保障支出

都挤入了农村居民消费，但是却减小了发展享受型消费支出的占比。这主要是因

浙江财经学院硕士学位论文

为文科教和社会保障支出发挥作用的对象大部分是农村居民中经济情况较差，生

活质量较低的那群人，他们的相对收入提升之后，主要的消费对象依然集中在生

存型消费资料。虽然文科教支出和社会保障支出没有增加发展享受型消费支出的

比重，却改善了穷人的生活质量。因此当下增加文科教支出和社会保障支出是有

重要意义的。医疗卫生支出的增加，减轻了农民就医经济负担，相对提高了农村

居民的可支配收入，使得农村居民由更多的闲钱用于弹性较高的消费资料购买上。

提高了发展享受型消费支出的占比，优化了农村居民消费结构，进而提升了农村

居民的生活质量。而农林水事务支出对农村居民消费产生了替代效应，说明我国

农林水支出结构不尽合理，存在诸多问题，需要进行科学有效的调整。

关键词：财政支出；农村居民消费；消费资料；消费结构

浙江财经学院硕士学位论文

III

ABSTRACT

In recent years, China's national economy has maintained a high-speed and stable

growth. The supply constraints type of economic growth mode gradually be demand

constrained replaced and demand factors such as investment, consumption and exports

has become the key to promote China's rapid economic growth. Under the economic

crisis, how to stimulate household consumption and investment is the golden key to

China's continued economic growth. The countryside is China's largest and the most

basic consumer market,changing consumer attitudes of farmers is a top priority of

China's economic development.

Now, due to the constraints of the urban-rural dual structure, has been a

considerable gap in the standard of living of the rural and urban. The lack of consumer

demand in rural markets directly affect the quality of life of the rural residents, and to

limit the development of our national economy. Moreover, rural residents in China have

too conservative consumer attitudes, consumption structure is not rational. The level of

survival data consumer spending is high,but the level of the enjoyment and development

consumer spending is low .Development to a higher elasticity, enjoy the type of data

transfer can not only drive the development of related industries, and create more jobs,

thereby increasing the income of rural residents, to promote the further consumption of

rural residents ,but also to be useful to the level of consumption and quality of life of

rural residents.

This article not only briefly describes the theory on fiscal spending and consumer

spending, but also describes the development status of the past three decades of China's

fiscal expenditure and rural residents' consumption spending. After, through the

establishment of the mathematical model, derived cointegration relationship of fiscal

spending and consumer spending, and thus establish the measurement model. Through

empirical analysis of nearly five years of quarterly data, we draw the relevant

conclusions. From the total, the increase in fiscal spending can increase consumer

spending and the proportion of enjoyment consumer spending. Therefore, it is

reasonable to expand the scale of fiscal spending for promoting the consumption of

rural residents and improving residents' consumption structure. Different types of

financial expenditure has different effect on rural residents' consumption structure. We

mainly analyzed general public services spending, science and education spending,

浙江财经学院硕士学位论文

social security and employment spending, health care spending, and agriculture, forestry

and water affairs spending. The study indicates that the general public services have a

crowding-out effect on consumer spending, so the reduction in the general public

service spending is necessory. science and education spending, social security and

employment spending can squeeze into the farmers' consumption, but reduces the

development of the proportion of the enjoyment and consumption data.This is because

the science and education spending, social security and employment spending was

mainly targeted at the poor economic conditions of rural residents, the group of people

of a lower quality of life. Though science and education spending and spending on

social security did not increase the proportion of development of enjoyment and

consumption data, but to improve the quality of life of the poor. The increase in health

care spending reduce the economic burden on farmers for medical treatment, and

increase the disposable income of rural residents, the rural residents can have more

spare cash for a higher elasticity of consumer purchase. Therefore increased the

proportion of the development of the enjoyment and consumption data, Optimized the

rural residents' consumption structure. Agriculture, Forestry and Water Affairs

expenditure has substitution effect to rural residents consumption,that is because the

structure of agriculture, forestry and water spending is not rational, need to be adjusted.

Keyswords ：Public expenditure; Consumption of rural residents; Consumption;

Consumption structure

浙江财经学院硕士学位论文

第1章绪论 ....................................................................................................................II

1.1 研究背景和研究意义 ................................................................................. 1

1.2 文献综述 ..................................................................................................... 1

1.3 研究思路及框架 ......................................................................................... 5

1.4 创新点与不足之处 ..................................................................................... 6

第2章财政支出与农村居民消费支出的结构分类 .....................................................8

2.1 财政支出结构的分类 ................................................................................. 8

2.2 本文采用的财政支出结构分类方法 ....................................................... 10

2.3 居民消费支出结构的分类 ....................................................................... 10

2.4 本文采用的消费结构分类方法 ............................................................... 12

第3章财政支出与农村居民消费支出的发展现状 ...................................................13

3.1 我国财政支出规模的发展及现状 ........................................................... 13

3.2 我国财政支出结构的现状 ....................................................................... 15

3.3 我国农村居民消费水平的发展及现状 ................................................... 16

3.4 我国农村居民消费结构分析 ................................................................... 18

第4章计量模型的理论推导 .......................................................................................21

4.1 财政支出与居民消费之间关系的经典理论 ........................................... 21

4.2 计量模型的推导 ....................................................................................... 22

第5章财政支出与农村居民消费之间关系的实证分析 ...........................................26

5.1 样本及数据来源 ....................................................................................... 26

5.2 财政支出规模对农村居民消费的影响 ................................................... 27

5.3 财政支出结构对农村居民消费的影响 ................................................... 30

第6章政策建议 ...........................................................................................................35

6.1 合理扩大财政支出规模，促进农村居民收入持续增长 ....................... 35

6.2 缩减一般公共服务支出，加大财政支农比重 ....................................... 36

6.3 加大文科教和社会保障支出，改善农村居民生活质量 ....................... 36

6.4 积极扩大医疗卫生支出，间接增加农村居民消费收入 ....................... 37

6.5 科学调配农林水事务支出，增加农村居民直接收益 ........................... 38

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摘要：

浙江财经学院硕士学位论文I摘要近年来，我国国民经济保持了高速而稳定的增长。供给约束型的经济增长模式逐渐被需求约束型取代。投资、消费和出口等需求因素已经成为促进我国经济高速增长的关键所在。然而，当下之时各国的经济都受到了经济危机的影响。危机之下，如何刺激居民消费和投资，是我国经济持续增长的金钥匙。农村是我国最大和最基础的消费市场，超过全国总人口半数的农业人口是我国最大的消费群体，因此，大力推进农民消费，改变农民消费观念是我国经济发展的重中之重。现而今，由于城乡二元结构的制约，我国农村与城市的生活水平和消费水平有了相当的差距。农村市场消费需求不足直接影响了农村居民的生活质量，限制了我国国民经济的发...

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