我国货币替代的影响因素研究——基于人民币作为被替代货币的分析

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浙江财经学院硕士学位论文

摘要

所谓货币替代是指一国居民因对本币的币值稳定失去信心，或本币资产收益

率相对较低时发生的大规模货币兑换，从而使外币在价值贮藏、交易媒介和价值

尺度等货币职能方面全部或部分地替代本币。货币替代是发展中国家在开放过程

中所不可避免的问题，它的存在会使汇率频繁波动、影响货币政策独立性、削弱

政府的通货膨胀税和铸币税、涣散社会公众对本币的信心等，这会严重影响国家

宏观经济的稳定和经济政策的效力。货币替代的程度取决于规模因素、汇率风险、

本外币收益的差异、通货膨胀率、制度因素等。

在转轨时期的中国，由于制度转型、市场发育和金融经济条件等基本环境的

变化，人民币汇率形成体制的市场化，货币替代现象已成为影响我国宏观经济变

量的一个重要因素，由于我国制度上的特殊情况，不能简单地套用西方国家的货

币替代理论，因此我们要有基于自己国情的货币替代理论和实证研究。

本文较系统地论述货币替代理论及其在中国的现实情况。在吸收和借鉴国内

外货币替代理论相关研究成果的基础上，结合我国的实际情况，从人民币作为被

替代货币角度出发，考察人民币被替代的发展现状、影响因素及利弊均衡关系。

并结合我国国情，构建了切合我国实际情况的理论模型，论述了我国货币替代与

主要经济变量之间的关系，从而考察影响我国货币替代的因素有哪些及影响程

度。在此基础之上，提出有效控制人民币被外币替代经济效益的政策指施。

在实证方面，本文在现有的国内外研究基础上，考察了我国 2003 年 1 月到

2012 年 4 月的月度数据，运用回归分析对货币替代率与人民币对美元汇率、货

币政策、财政收入、进出口总额、中美利差、消费者物价指数之间的经济关系进

行计量统计研究。实证结果表明，货币政策对我国货币替代有着显著的影响，消

费者物价指数的影响有限；利差越大，人民币被货币替代程度越小；财政收入和

进出口总额的增加会导致我国货币替代程度的增加。

本文的创新点有以下几点：第一，本文首次将货币替代与主要经济变量关系

的考察扩展到政府的货币政策上来，扩展了传统经济模型。通过理论建模和中国

自身经济数据运用计量手段进行实证检验，指出货币替代除了受传统认识上的汇

率及利差影响之外还将受到政府针对宏观经济的货币政策的影响，本文定量分析

了各因素对人民币被替代产生及产生的影响及影响程度。第二，以往的货币替代

理论更多的是基于货币替代对我国经济影响的研究，套用的理论也是国外研究的

货币替代影响因素的分析，至今还没有针对性的我国货币替代影响因素的研究，

笔者认为要提出适合我国国情的货币替代相关政策，首先要在我国特有的国情基

浙江财经学院硕士学位论文

础上考察货币替代的影响因素。所以本文为我国货币替代研究提供了一种新的视

角。第三，从人民币作为被替代货币角度出发，考察人民币被替代的发展现状、

影响因素及利弊均衡关系。以往的理论研究都基于如何反货币替代，提出的政策

建议也是如何反货币替代的机制。而本文突破以往的研究框架，认为人民币作为

被替代货币只要控制在一定范围内还是会对中国的经济产生有利的刺激作用。本

文结合实证检验结果，最后提出了使人民币被替代这一经济现象控制在对中国有

利范畴内的政策意见。本文将货币替代这一发展于国外的经济理论与中国特殊的

国情相结合，提出符合我国国情的政策措施。

关键词：货币替代；名义汇率；货币政策；消费者信心指数

浙江财经学院硕士学位论文

III

ABSTRACT

The currency substitution refers to foreign currency monetary functions in a store

of value, medium of exchange and measure of value in whole or in part to replace the

local currency when a country's residents to lose confidence in the stability of the

currency due to the currency, or the mass currency exchange happened when local

currency assets yield is relatively low. Currency substitution in developing countries

in the process of opening is an inevitable question. The currency substitution depends

on the scale factors, exchange rate risk, and foreign currency gains of differences, the

inflation rate, and institutional factors.

During the transition period, because of institutional transformation, market

development and financial and economic conditions, changes in the environment etc.

Currency substitution has become an important factor in the impact of

macroeconomic variables in our country. Due to the special case of our institutional,

We can’t simply apply western countries monetary alternative theory, so we need to

have currency substitution theory and empirical research based on their own national

conditions.

This paper systematically discusses the money alternative theories of the reality

of the situation in China. Absorb and learn from the domestic and foreign currency

substitution theory research, combined with China's actual situation, RMB as an

alternative currency,the paper examine the RMB alternative development status,

influence factors and the pros and cons of a balanced relationship.What’s more,the

paper constructed theoretical models to suit the actual situation in China, discusses the

relationship between China's currency substitution and key economic variables and

examine impact of currency substitution factors which impact. On this basis, the

proposed effective control of RMB foreign currency alternative cost-effective policy

refers to the facilities.

In the empirical, on the basis of existing domestic and international research,

visits of monthly data from January 2003 to April 2012, the use of regression analysis,

use of regression analysis, the paper research the economic relations between the

currency substitution rate and the exchange rate of the RMB against the U.S. dollar,

the monetary policy, fiscal revenue, total imports and exports, U.S. interest rate, the

consumer price index. The empirical results show that monetary policy has a

significant impact on China's currency alternative;Consumer Price Index (CPI) has

浙江财经学院硕士学位论文

limited impact on China currency substitution; The larger of the spreads, the smaller

of the degree of RMB currency substitution; The increase in fiscal revenue and the

total import and export volume will result in the increase of the degree of currency

substitution.

The innovation of this paper are the following: First, Firstly extended to the

investigation of the currency substitution and economic variables between the

government's monetary policy up. Extends the traditional economic model. Through

theoretical modeling and China's own economic data use measurement instruments

empirical test. In addition to the exchange rates and spreads the impact on the

traditional understanding of that currency substitution will impact by the government

for the macroeconomic of monetary policy. The article quantitative analysis various

factors on the RMB instead produce and generated the degree of the impact. Second,

The past of currency substitution theory more currency substitution-based study of the

impact on China's economy. Apply theoretical study was abroad currency substitution

analysis of influencing factors. Still not targeted China's currency substitution

influencing factors. I believe that to propose suitable for China's currency substitution

policy.Fistly need to examine the impact of currency substitution factors on the basis

of China's specific national conditions. Therefore, this article provides a new

perspective on China's currency substitution studies.The third, from the point of RMB

as an alternative currency, examine RMB alternative development status, influencing

factors, and the pros and cons of a balanced relationship. Previous theoretical studies

are based on how the anti-currency alternative. The policy proposal is how

anti-money alternative mechanism. This paper breakthrough in the research

framework, think that the RMB as an alternative currency within a certain range as

long as the control or China's economy will generate favorable stimulation. In this

paper, the empirical test results combined currency substitution development in

foreign economic theory and the special situation in China. Proposed policy measures

in line with China's national conditions.

Keywords ：Currency substitution; Nominal exchange rate; Monetary policy;

Consumer Confidence Index

浙江财经学院硕士学位论文

第一章导论.......................................................1

第一节选题的背景及意义 ........................................1

第二节研究思路及方法 ..........................................4

第三节创新点及不足 ............................................5

第二章国内外研究综述..............................................7

第一节国外研究现状 ............................................7

第二节国内研究现状 ...........................................10

第三节对现有文献的简要评述 ...................................14

第三章货币替代的基本概述.........................................16

第一节货币替代概念辨析及分类 .................................16

第二节货币替代的影响因素及其衡量标准 .........................19

第三节我国货币替代现状 .......................................22

第四节人民币被替代对我国经济的影响 ...........................23

第四章我国货币替代影响因素的实证研究——基于人民币被替代的分析...26

第一节变量的选取和数据来源说明 ...............................26

第二节计量检测结果及说明 .....................................28

第五章结论与政策建议.............................................34

第一节结论 .................................................34

第二节政策建议 ...............................................34

参考文献...........................................................37

附录.............................................................41

致谢.............................................................42

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摘要：

浙江财经学院硕士学位论文I摘要所谓货币替代是指一国居民因对本币的币值稳定失去信心，或本币资产收益率相对较低时发生的大规模货币兑换，从而使外币在价值贮藏、交易媒介和价值尺度等货币职能方面全部或部分地替代本币。货币替代是发展中国家在开放过程中所不可避免的问题，它的存在会使汇率频繁波动、影响货币政策独立性、削弱政府的通货膨胀税和铸币税、涣散社会公众对本币的信心等，这会严重影响国家宏观经济的稳定和经济政策的效力。货币替代的程度取决于规模因素、汇率风险、本外币收益的差异、通货膨胀率、制度因素等。在转轨时期的中国，由于制度转型、市场发育和金融经济条件等基本环境的变化，人民币汇率形成体制的市场化，货币替代现...

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