中国商业银行业利润率研究—市场结构和技术进步的争鸣

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浙江财经学院硕士学位论文

摘要

近年来，中国商业银行业的高利润率现象一直是理论界和实务界争议的热点。

2011 年沪深上市公司年报显示，商业银行业是我国最赚钱的行业之一，其资本利

润率不仅大幅高于工业部门，还高于石油、烟草等一些常见的垄断性行业。不少

学者表示，垄断市场结构是维持商业银行业高利润率的重要因素；但也有专家认

为，随着银行业改革的深入，商业银行在内部治理、成本控制等方面得到了很大

的提升，技术进步是商业银行业持续高利润率的主要原因。不同的观点对应的政

策建议和未来发展方向自然也存在很大的差异。

本文在市场结构与市场绩效的传统理论基础上实证研究了我国商业银行业利

润率与市场结构、技术进步的关系。在传统的市场结构和绩效理论假说中，效率

是一个静态的概念，反映的是同一时期不同企业之间的相对效率水平。本文计量

研究将效率分解为静态效率和动态效率，扩展了市场结构和绩效理论假说中效率

的内涵。本文定义的技术进步即动态效率，反映了企业不同时期的效率改进程度。

文中利用 DEA 方法测算了 12 家商业银行的综合效率值，并作为静态效率变量；利

用 Malmquist TFP 指数法测算了这 12 家银行 7 年间的全要素生产率，并作为技术

进步变量。

在 Berger 提出的市场结构和绩效关系检验模型的基础上，本文加入一个关于

市场份额和效率变量的方程，构建了一个扩展的结构模型，来检验传统的 SCP 假

说、相对市场力量假说、纯效率结构假说、修正效率结构假说以及混合效率结构

假说等五种假说。基于 2004 年至 2011 年 12 家商业银行业的面板数据，实证分析

了中国商业银行利润率和市场结构及技术进步的关系，得出三个主要结论：1.技

术进步是近年来中国商业银行盈利能力的重要决定变量；2.竞争的市场环境促进

了银行业技术进步，提高了银行经营效率；3.适度的市场竞争在现阶段不但没有

大幅降低中国商业银行利润率，反而会在一定程度上提高银行的盈利水平。这与

欧美银行业的一般研究结论刚好相反。欧美市场上的银行业，市场份额、集中度

等市场结构变量与银行盈利能力指标之间一般存在正相关关系。本文从金融抑制

角度简要分析了中国商业银行业集中度和利润率负相关的原因。

最后，本文分别从技术进步和市场结构两个方面提出了相应的政策建议。本

文可能的创新点为：1. 惯常使用的 Berger 模型只能检验利润率和市场结构、企

业效率之间的四个假说。由于市场份额和效率之间可能存在多重共线性问题，本

浙江财经学院硕士学位论文

文通过加入一个新的回归方程，可以同时检验五种假说。2.本文将传统的市场结

构和绩效理论假说中的效率扩展为静态效率和动态效率，在 Berger 框架基础上进

一步研究了技术进步与利润率的关系。3.以往研究商业银行利润率的文献大多数

只从市场结构或者技术进步一个方面来分析利润率。本文将市场结构和技术进步

两者结合在一起，在市场结构和绩效相关假说的基础上更全面地研究了国商业银

行业利润率的影响因素。

关键词：商业银行业；利润率；市场结构；技术进步

浙江财经学院硕士学位论文

III

ABSTRACT

In recent years, the high profit rate of the commercial banking industry has been a

hot issue in the theoretical and practical circles. The listed company's annual report in

2011 shows that the commercial banking sector is one of the country's most profitable

industry, and its return on capital has not only significantly higher than the industry, and

higher than the oil and tobacco industries. Many experts said that monopoly contribute

to high profits of banking, they think that the lack of competition caused by the

monopoly market structure is an important factor to maintain high profit margins in

commercial banking; However, some scholars believe that, with the deepening of the

reform of the banking sector, internal governance, cost control of commercial bank has

been greatly improved, and technological progress is the main reasons for commercial

banking sector continue to maintain high profit margins. These two different points of

view result different policy recommendations.

Based on the theory of market structure and performance, this paper study the

relationship between profitability and market structure, technological progress. In the

traditional market structure and performance theory hypothesis, the efficiency is a static

concept, which reflect the relative efficiency between different enterprises of the same

period.This paper extends the concept of efficiency in the market structure and

performance theory hypothesis, dividing the efficiency into static efficiency and

dynamic efficiency. Dynamic efficiency which be defined technological progress,

reflect the increased efficiency of the different periods . We use the the simple DEA

method to estimates the overall efficiency of variable value as static efficiency, and use

Malmquist TFP index method to estimates the total factor productivity as the

technological progress variable.

In the empirical part, on the basis of Berger model, this paper join a market share

and efficiency regression equation, constitutes a new model to test conventional SCP

hypothesis, the relative market power hypothesis, pure efficiency structure hypothesis,

correction efficiency structure hypothesis and mixing efficiency structure hypothesis

model. Then this paper use panel data from 2004 to 2011 followed by the commercial

banking industry to study the relationship between banking market structure and

浙江财经学院硕士学位论文

performance of the commercial banking industry in China, founding the five kinds of

hypothesis are unsubstantiated. However, through the analysis of the relationship

between market structure and market performance, we have come to three main

conclusions: 1. Technological progress is an important decision variable in bank

profitability; 2.Competitive market environment can promote the Bank of technological

progress, improve bank efficiency; At this stage of the modest market competition, there

will not only not significantly reduce the commercial bank profit margins, but will

improve the level of profitability of the bank. This is contrary to the conclusions of the

European and American banking, there is generally a positive correlation between the

U.S. and European banking sector, market share, market concentration structure

variables and bank profitability indicators. From financial repression , this paper

analyses the reasons for negative correlation between China's commercial banking

industry concentration and profitability.

Finally, based on the conclusions drawn from the analysis, this paper put forward

policy recommendations from technological advances and market structure. The

innovative point of this article may: 1. Model proposed by Berger is often used to study

the relationship between profitability and market structure and technological progress,

but it can only test four hypotheses.For the relative market power hypothesis, due to the

multicollinearity problem may exist between market share and efficiency, this paper add

a new regression equation model to simultaneously test five hypotheses. 2. The article

extend the efficiency of the market structure and performance of the traditional

theoretical hypotheses to static efficiency and dynamic efficiency, and study the

relationship between technological progress and profit margins.3. Most of the previous

studies literature on the profit margins of commercial banks only study one aspect of the

market structure or technological progress to analyze the profitability. This paper

combines market structure and technological progress, more comprehensive studying of

the impact factors of the margin on the basis of the market structure and performance

hypothesis.

Keywords: commercial bank industry; profit margins; market structure; technological

progress

浙江财经学院硕士学位论文

第一章绪论 ........................................................ 1

第一节研究背景及意义 ........................................... 1

第二节国内外研究现状 ........................................... 2

第三节主要内容 ................................................. 5

第四节创新点及不足 ............................................. 6

第二章中国商业银行业利润率分析及相关理论基础 ....................... 7

第一节中国商业银行业利润率分析 ................................. 7

第二节利润率相关理论 .......................................... 10

第三章中国商业银行业市场结构度量 .................................. 14

第一节中国商业银行业演变历程 .................................. 14

第二节中国商业银行业市场结构分析 .............................. 15

第四章中国商业银行技术进步度量 .................................... 24

第一节技术进步的度量方法 ...................................... 24

第二节中国商业银行技术进步分析 ................................ 28

第五章中国商业银行业利润率实证研究 ................................ 35

第一节模型构建与变量设定 ...................................... 35

第二节实证结果及分析 .......................................... 37

第六章研究结论及政策建议 .......................................... 41

第一节研究结论 ................................................ 41

第二节政策建议 ................................................ 42

参考文献 ........................................................... 46

附录 ............................................................... 49

致谢 ............................................................... 50

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摘要：

浙江财经学院硕士学位论文I摘要近年来，中国商业银行业的高利润率现象一直是理论界和实务界争议的热点。2011年沪深上市公司年报显示，商业银行业是我国最赚钱的行业之一，其资本利润率不仅大幅高于工业部门，还高于石油、烟草等一些常见的垄断性行业。不少学者表示，垄断市场结构是维持商业银行业高利润率的重要因素；但也有专家认为，随着银行业改革的深入，商业银行在内部治理、成本控制等方面得到了很大的提升，技术进步是商业银行业持续高利润率的主要原因。不同的观点对应的政策建议和未来发展方向自然也存在很大的差异。本文在市场结构与市场绩效的传统理论基础上实证研究了我国商业银行业利润率与市场结构、技术进步的关系。在传统的...

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