转型时期对外开放程度、制度质量与经济发展——基于我国省级面板数据的分析

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浙江财经学院硕士学位论文

摘要

自从 1978 年实行改革开放以来，我国经济建设取得巨大成就，与此同时，对

外开放程度也不断提高。尽管 2009 年由于受到全球金融危机的影响对外贸易额有

较大幅度下降，2010 年对外贸易总额又迅速回升。可以说，对外开放对我国经济

发展起着至关重要的作用。

在改革开放的这三十多年内，我国也催生了一连串的制度变革，如家庭联产

承包责任制和收入分配制的实施、债权转股权的尝试和财政分税制的推行以及国

有企业改革等等，这些制度变革极大地调动了人民群众的生产积极性和主动性，

毫无疑问对经济增长起到了促进作用。

这些客观事实充分说明了以市场化为导向的改革开放在推动我国经济增长起

着不可或缺也是不可磨灭的作用。

学术界普遍认为专业分工的深化和市场规模的扩大是实现 30 多年来“中国奇

迹”的两个重要影响因素，而对外开放和一系列制度性变革又是产生分工深化和

规模扩大的两个重要来源。

尽管我们普遍会认同对外开放程度和制度质量因素会促进经济发展，但我们

仍旧需要通过实证检验来支持这一理论结论。基于这种背景，这篇论文努力探寻

最近十多年来对外开放程度、制度质量和经济发展之间的关系，而国内文献将这

三者结合起来考察分析的并不多见。此外，本文尝试运用区域经济学、国际经济

学、制度经济学、计量经济学和发展经济学等学科的各种理论和方法，实证分析

影响经济发展的各种因素，这一方面有利于拓展经济学理论研究视角，另一方面

也有利于多学科相互渗透。

本文首先从我国最近十二年来对外贸易和外商直接投资来介绍我国经济对外

开放总体发展形势，在第三章中构造了对外开放度（用外资依存度和外贸依存度

的均值来表示）这一指标来衡量我国经济对外开放度，通过结合图表分析发现：

我国东部、中部和西部三大地区之间经济对外开放程度差异明显，基本地域格局

在最近十二年来并未发生根本转变；东部地区的对外开放度起伏很大，而中西部

地区的对外开放度走势平稳，波动幅度相当小。然后在第四章考察制度质量的度

浙江财经学院硕士学位论文

量问题和各种替代变量,最后是实证分析和政策建议。

本文使用 1999 到 2010 年的省级面板数据，基于固定效应、混合回归和 GMM

动态面板等模型分别进行实证分析。实证分析发现,在1999 年到 2010 年这 12 年的

省级面板数据各个模型设定中，各省区的出口开放程度在各个方程设定中都显著

地影响了各省区国内生产总值。而代表制度质量的这两个代理变量有时显著有时

不显著，有时甚至呈现相反的符号。

当前，我国既处于后金融危机时代也处于向市场经济体制转型时期。

因此，全面深刻地了解对外开放及各项制度措施和经济增长之间的相互

关系显得尤为重要。

关键词：对外开放；制度；制度质量；广义矩估计

浙江财经学院硕士学位论文

III

ABSTRACT

Since the reform and opening up, China's economic construction has made great

achievements, and in the same time, the openness degree is also rising. In 2009, due to

the impact of the global financial crisis, foreign trade volume has a large decline.

However, in 2010, the total foreign trade volume has a quick recovery. It can be said

that openness plays a vital role in China's economic development.

During the thirty years of reform and opening up, China has also spawned a series

of institutional changes, such as the household contract responsibility system, the

implementation of the income distribution system, the attempt of the debt-equity swap

and the implementation of the fiscal revenue-sharing, as well as the reform of

state-owned enterprises etc. these institutional changes greatly mobilized the enthusiasm

and initiative of the people's production, and no doubt played a role in promoting

economic growth.

These objective facts fully show that market-oriented reform and opening up plays

an indispensable and indelible role in promoting China's economic growth.

In academia, it is generally agreed that the deepening of professional division and

expansion of market scale are two important factors to achieve "China miracle".

Although we generally agree that the openness and institutional quality factors will

promote economic development, but we still need to support the conclusion of this

theory by empirical tests. Based on this background, this paper is to explore the

relationship between the openness to the outside world, institutional quality and

economic development. As the domestic literature about the combined analysis of these

three is rare, this paper attempts to use a lot of theory and methods in regional

economics, international economics, institutional economics, econometrics and

development economics, and empirically analyses some factors that affect economic

development. Hopefully this will help expand the theoretical research in economics

perspective, and on the other hand, hope that it is also conducive to multidisciplinary

mutual penetration.

In the article, we firstly introduce the overall development situation of China's

economic openness to the outside world. In the third chapter we construct openness

degree to foreign trade and openness degree to foreign direct investment, and then the

浙江财经学院硕士学位论文

indicator to measure the economic opening-up degree, and through a combination of

some table and chart analysis find: economic openness degree has significant

differences between the three regions of eastern, central and western China, but basic

geographical pattern has not fundamentally changed in recent years. The openness

degree of the eastern region is in the ups and downs, while the openness degree of the

central and western regions remains stable, and the volatility is quite small. Then in the

fourth chapter, introduce the institutional quality’s measurement issues and its various

proxy variables. Finally, give some empirical analysis and policy recommendations.

BY using provincial panel data in the years 1999-2010, this article carries on

empirical analysis based on the fixed effects, pooled regression and GMM dynamic

panel model. In all these equations, the degree of openness significantly affects the

gross domestic product (GDP) of these provinces and autonomous regions. The two

proxy variables representing institutional quality are sometimes significant and

sometimes not significant, and sometimes even show the opposite sign.

At present, China is not only in the period of transition to the market economy, but

also in the post-crisis era. Therefore, a comprehensive and profound understanding of

the relationship between the openness to the outside world, institutional measures and

economic growth is particularly important.

Keywords: Openness; Institutions; Institutional quality; GMM

浙江财经学院硕士学位论文

第一章绪论 ............................................................................................................ 1

第一节选题背景 ............................................................................................ 1

第二节问题的提出和选题意义 .................................................................... 3

第三节研究框架和实证分析方法 ................................................................ 4

第四节本文的创新点及不足之处 ................................................................ 5

第二章国内外相关文献综述 ................................................................................ 6

第一节经济发展的各种决定因素 ................................................................ 6

第二节对外开放与经济发展相关文献 ........................................................ 7

第三节制度因素与经济发展的相关文献 .................................................... 9

第四节对外开放、制度因素与经济发展相互关系的文献 ...................... 10

第三章对外开放度以及我国对外开放的地区差异 .......................................... 13

第一节关于贸易与经济发展相互关系的理论脉络 .................................. 13

第二节我国对外贸易发展概况 .................................................................. 14

第三节一国贸易开放度的影响因素及其度量 .......................................... 14

第四节对外开放与对内开放的关系 .......................................................... 17

第五节我国对外贸易开放度 ...................................................................... 18

第六节中国经济开放度的地区差距 .......................................................... 21

第四章制度质量的量化问题 .............................................................................. 27

第一节理论背景 .......................................................................................... 27

第二节制度的内涵及作用 .......................................................................... 28

第三节制度两个核心理论与经济发展和对外贸易的关系 ...................... 28

第四节国内外文献中所使用的制度质量的工具变量 .............................. 29

第五节本章小结 .......................................................................................... 30

第五章建立模型和实证分析 .............................................................................. 31

第一节变量的选取及模型的建立 .............................................................. 31

第二节建立模型及实证分析 ...................................................................... 32

第六章结论及政策建议 ...................................................................................... 40

第一节本文结论 .......................................................................................... 40

第二节政策建议 .......................................................................................... 41

参考文献 ................................................................................................................ 43

致谢 ........................................................................................................................ 48

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摘要：

浙江财经学院硕士学位论文I摘要自从1978年实行改革开放以来，我国经济建设取得巨大成就，与此同时，对外开放程度也不断提高。尽管2009年由于受到全球金融危机的影响对外贸易额有较大幅度下降，2010年对外贸易总额又迅速回升。可以说，对外开放对我国经济发展起着至关重要的作用。在改革开放的这三十多年内，我国也催生了一连串的制度变革，如家庭联产承包责任制和收入分配制的实施、债权转股权的尝试和财政分税制的推行以及国有企业改革等等，这些制度变革极大地调动了人民群众的生产积极性和主动性，毫无疑问对经济增长起到了促进作用。这些客观事实充分说明了以市场化为导向的改革开放在推动我国经济增长起着不可或缺也是不可磨灭...

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