民间借贷对我国经济增长的影响及规范发展研究

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民间借贷对我国经济增长的影响及规

范发展研究

摘要

近年来，我国民间借贷发展活跃，它不仅填补了正规金融体系的资金缺口，

同时在极大程度上促进了我国中小企业和农村经济的发展。但由于我国金融体系

的不完善，监管制度的不健全，导致民间借贷沦为不法分子违反犯罪的手段，扰

乱了国家金融秩序，影响了社会安定。在这样的背景下，本文通过分析民间借贷

的发展现状，从理论和实证两方面，探究民间借贷的存在对我国宏观经济增长产

生的积极影响，并结合其发展中存在的缺陷和问题，提出民间借贷规范发展的对

策建议。

本文采用实证分析与规范分析相结合、定性分析法和定量分析法相结合的研

究方法。文章分为四个部分：首先，本文从二元经济结构、金融抑制、交易成本

制度变迁、信息不对称等基础理论角度解释了民间借贷产生和发展的原因；其次

本文对我国民间借贷的发展历程、特点及现状进行了分析，并列出了其对经济发

展的益处及存在的问题；再次，在实证部分，本文采用收支差异法计算出我国经

济主体从地下经济部门获得的收入总量，再利用其与民间借贷之间的关系，结合

其他宏观经济因素，测算出我国民间借贷的规模，与我国国内生产总值进行格兰

杰因果关系检验，从定量的角度验证了民间借贷对我国经济增长的促进作用，得

出民间借贷的存在与发展不仅是必然也是必要的结论。

最后，本文认为，民间借贷不应该一味否定，应该充分发挥其积极的一面。

在法律体系方面，应尽快明确民间借贷的合法地位，合理界定民间借贷与非法集

资的界限，确定民间借贷的利率水平；在监管体系方面，不仅应明确民间借贷的

监管主体，还应建立和完善市场准入机制、退出机制和风险预警、处理机制。规

范民间借贷法律法规，完善民间借贷监管制度，取其精华去其糟粕，充分发挥民

间借贷的正面积极效应，鼓励其规范发展，为我国经济的繁荣发展做出更大的贡

献。

关键词：民间借贷经济增长规范发展

ABSTRACT

In recent years, the informal credit development is active, and it is as a supplement

of the formal financial system for the development of small and medium-sized

enterprises in China, to a certain extent, it provides an important source of funds, and

enriches the financial market in China. This dissertation hopes to explore the existence

of informal credit how will how to effect the development of our country’s economic

growth, through the two aspects of theory and empirical analysis, and combine with its

defects and problems existing in the development, put forward countermeasures and

suggestions for the standardize development of informal credit.

The research method the article uses are the combination of empirical analysis and

normative analysis, the qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis method. The article

is divided into four parts: first of all, this article explain the cause and development of

the informal credit from the dual economic structure, financial repression, transaction

costs, institutional change, information asymmetry and other basic theory angle;

secondly, analyzing the development, characteristics and present situation of China's

informal credit, and lists the benefits of economic development and the existing

problems; thirdly, in the empirical part, income difference method is used to calculate

the economic subject in our country, the amount of income from the underground

economy department, use of its and the relationship between the informal credit, in

combination with other macroeconomic factors, measure the size of the informal credit

in China, with China's gross domestic product (GDP) for granger causality test,

informal credit is verified from a quantitative point of view, for the promotion of

economic growth in China, draw a conclusion that the existence of private lending and

the development is not only the inevitable is the necessary.

Finally, this paper argues that, the informal credit should not blindly negative,

should give full play to its positive side. In the aspect of legal system, the legal status of

informal credit should be cleared as soon as possible, reasonable define the boundaries

of informal credit and raising funds illegally, determining the informal credit interest

rates; in the aspect of the regulatory system, not only should clear the informal credit

supervision main body, still should establish and improve the market access mechanism,

and exit mechanism and risk early warning mechanism, processing. Specification of

informal credit laws and regulations, perfecting the informal credit supervision system,

taking the essence to the dregs, give full play to the positive effect of informal credit,

encouraging the standardize development of informal credit, for our country to make

greater contribution to the development of economic prosperity.

Key words: Informal credit, Economy growth, Standardize

development

目 录
           中文摘要
      ABSTRACT
第一章 绪论.....................................................1
1 研究背景及意义...........................................1
1.1 研究背景...........................................1
1.2 研究意义...........................................2
2 国内外相关文献综述.......................................2
2.1 国外文献综述.......................................2
2.2 国内文献综述.......................................3
2.3 国内外文献简要评述.................................6
3 研究内容.................................................6
4 研究方法及可能的创新点...................................9
第二章 民间借贷的理论基础......................................10
1 民间借贷的界定..........................................10
1.1 民间借贷概念的界定................................10
1.2 民间借贷的形式....................................10
2 民间借贷的理论基础......................................12
2.1 二元经济结构理论..................................12
2.2 金融抑制理论......................................14
2.3 交易成本理论......................................15
2.4 制度变迁理论......................................16
2.5 信息不对称理论....................................17
第三章 我国民间借贷的现状分析..................................20
1 我国民间借贷的发展历程和现状............................20
1.1 我国民间借贷的发展历程............................20
1.2 我国民间借贷的特点................................23
2 我国民间借贷和经济发展的关系............................25
2.1 我国民间借贷和中小企业............................25
2.2 我国民间借贷和农村经济............................26
2.3 我国民间借贷和国有银行............................28

2.4 我国民间借贷和经济效益............................29
3 我国民间借贷发展存在的问题及其原因分析..................30
3.1 我国民间借贷发展的负面效应........................30
3.2 我国民间借贷发展的法律制度缺陷....................31
3.3 我国民间借贷发展的监管体制缺陷....................33
第四章 民间借贷对我国经济增长影响的实证分析....................36
1 我国民间借贷规模的测算..................................36
1.1 测算思路与方法....................................36
1.2 地下经济规模的测算................................38
1.3 我国民间借贷规模的测算............................40
2 民间借贷促进经济增长的实证分析..........................43
2.1 模型与指标选取....................................43
2.2 单位根检验........................................44
2.3 格兰杰因果关系检验................................45
2.4 协整检验..........................................46
2.5 误差修正模型......................................47
2.6 模型结论..........................................48
第五章 我国民间借贷规范发展的对策建议..........................49
1 完善我国民间借贷法律体系................................49
1.1 明确民间借贷的合法地位............................49
1.2 合理确定民间借贷与非法集资界限....................50
1.3 完善民间借贷的法律法规............................51
1.4 合理确定民间借贷的利率水平........................52
2 完善我国民间借贷监管体系................................53
2.1 明确民间借贷的监管主体............................53
2.2 建立和完善市场准入机制和退出机制..................55
2.3 建立和完善风险预警和处理机制......................57
第六章 结论与展望..............................................58
1 研究结论................................................58
2 研究展望................................................59
附 录..........................................................60
参考文献.......................................................63

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摘要：

民间借贷对我国经济增长的影响及规范发展研究摘要近年来，我国民间借贷发展活跃，它不仅填补了正规金融体系的资金缺口，同时在极大程度上促进了我国中小企业和农村经济的发展。但由于我国金融体系的不完善，监管制度的不健全，导致民间借贷沦为不法分子违反犯罪的手段，扰乱了国家金融秩序，影响了社会安定。在这样的背景下，本文通过分析民间借贷的发展现状，从理论和实证两方面，探究民间借贷的存在对我国宏观经济增长产生的积极影响，并结合其发展中存在的缺陷和问题，提出民间借贷规范发展的对策建议。本文采用实证分析与规范分析相结合、定性分析法和定量分析法相结合的研究方法。文章分为四个部分：首先，本文从二元经济结构、金融抑制、交...

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