金融稳定视角下的国际货币政策协调问题研究

VIP免费

3.0 牛悦 2024-11-19 4 4 1.09MB 76 页 15积分

侵权投诉

摘要

席卷全球的 2008 金融风暴，影响之广泛、蔓延之迅速以及破坏力之巨大堪称

大萧条以来之最。各国政府以及国际机构面对金融危机疲于应付，分析危机发生

的根源除了宏观经济层面上的全球经济失衡和现行国际货币体系不适应经济发展

外，微观层面上的金融创新和金融衍生品缺乏监管导致的过度投机加剧了危机的

传导。次贷危机本身是对世界经济的一个外生冲击事件，而能够引发一系列的银

行危机、信用危机则是由于金融体系内部脆弱性造成，如何加强金融稳定的研究

无疑在全球范围形成一种趋势。

在开放经济条件下研究金融稳定不免要考虑到国际环境。国际金融市场的高

度发展和国际资本的频繁流动使得一国货币政策效应很快传递到另外的国家，除

了带来的溢出效应，也有可能由于其他国际或金融市场的反应而导致政策有效性

遭遇挑战，在这种情况下就要考虑国与国之间的货币政策协调。

仔细分析此次金融危机的发展过程及各国救市的措施，就不难发现加强国际

货币政策协调不仅可以在危机传导过程中切断传染链，并且各国政策方向一致有

助于进行危机的治理；相反各国之间缺乏协调很容易导致各国实施“以邻为壑”

的货币政策加剧危机的传导，同时很有可能作为另一国金融体系的外生冲击导致

金融系统的不稳定性加强。

本文以货币政策的国际协调为主线，以实现金融稳定为目标，介绍了金融稳定

和国际货币政策协调的相关理论，阐述了国际货币政策协调的操作原理和发展思

路。重点分析 2008 全球金融危机的原因及危机的国际传导过程，运用保罗·梅森

的季风效应模型分析货币政策冲击的国际传导。最后研究我国具体情况，对于我

国如何参加国际货币政策协调提出意见和分析。

关键词：金融稳定国际货币政策协调季风效应国际货币体系

货币政策传导机制

Abstract

The world economy is entering a major downturn in the face of the most

dangerous financial shock in mature financial markets since the 1930s.All the

governments and financial institutions are fatigued to cope with the financial crisis.As

we analyze the sourse of the global financial crisis, there are two aspects of the reasons.

On the macroscopic aspect, the global economy imbalance and the current monetary

system could not adapt to the development of the economy; on the microscopic aspect,

the lace of surveillance causes the over-speculation of the finacial derivatives,and

aggravate the transimission of the crisis. Subprime mortgage crisis is an external shock

to the global economy, but the series of banking and credit crisis is caused by the

fragilty of the financial system ,so how to intensify the financial stability is a trendency

over the world.

In the open economy ,we should consider the global conditions when we study

the financial stability.The high developed international financial market and the frequent

transfer of the international capital make the monetary policy effects of one country

transimit to another country rapidly. Except of the spillover effect,there may be some

challeges of the policy efficiency caused by the reactions of the other country or

finanical markets.In such a case, we should conside the coordinations of monetary

policy between countries.

To anatomize the development process of this global financial crisis and the

bailout plans of the countries,it is easy to find out that intensify the coordination could

not only cut off the infection chain of the crisis,but also can rule the crisis when the

monetary policy are in the same direction.On the contrary,it will aggravate the crisis

when the country execute the policy to satisfy itself without coordination, and could be

an external shock to another countrie’s finanical system.

According to the thoughtway of international monetary coordintation and to realize

the financial stability,we introduce the theories of financial stability and international

monetary coordination,and also discuss the operational principles and the development

thoughts.We focus on analyzing the sourse of the global financial crisis and the

transimission of the crisis ，and highlight the international transimission of monetary

policy shock by using the Paul Masson’s monsoonal effect model. At the end of the

papers,we give some analysis and advices on the specific conditions of our own

country .

Keywords: Financial stability International coordination of

monetary policy Monsoonal effect International monetary system

Mechanism of monetary policy transmission Effectiveness of

monetary policy

摘要

Abstract

第一章导论 ·······················································································1

1.1 选题背景和意义 ·············································································1

1.2 概念的分析界定 ············································································1

1.2.1 金融稳定的内涵 ········································································1

1.2.2 国际货币政策协调的概念 ··························································· 2

1.3 研究现状 ······················································································4

1.4 研究思路和框架结构 ······································································ 5

1.5 研究方法 ······················································································6

1.6 创新之处及存在不足 ······································································ 6

第二章理论综述 ·················································································8

2.1 金融稳定理论 ················································································8

2.1.1 封闭经济下的金融脆弱性理论 ····················································· 8

2.1.2 开放条件下的金融脆弱性理论 ··················································· 15

2.2 国际货币政策协调理论 ·································································· 16

2.2.1 国际货币政策协调的必要性 ······················································· 16

2.2.2 国际货币政策协调的研究方法 ···················································· 18

第三章金融危机的国际传导模型 ··························································· 22

3.1 分析全球金融危机爆发的根源 ························································ 22

3.1.1 宏观经济金融原因 ··································································· 22

3.1.2 微观层面——金融创新过度 ······················································· 23

3.1.3 从金融稳定层面分析金融危机根源 ··············································23

3.2 金融危机的国内传导过程——风险在传导中强化 ································ 25

3.2.1 资产证券化成为风险传导的链条 ·················································25

3.2.2 金融巨头过度介入衍生品市场 ···················································· 26

3.2.3 政府“风险隔离”机制失效 ······················································· 27

3.2.4 市场恐慌情绪推波助澜 ····························································· 27

3.3 金融危机的国际传导机制和模型分析 ················································28

3.3.1 金融危机的国际传导机制分类 ···················································· 28

3.3.2Masson 的金融危机国际传导模型 ················································ 29

3.3.3 季风效应分析——货币政策冲击的国际传导机制 ····························34

3.3.4 季风效应分析——货币政策冲击的模型分析 ··································35

3.3.5 蝴蝶效应引发全球风险共振 ······················································· 40

3.4 国际货币政策协调的必要性分析 ······················································42

第四章国际货币政策协调的操作原理 ····················································· 43

4.1 国际货币政策协调的操作原理 ·························································43

4.1.1 国际货币政策协调的内容 ·························································· 43

4.1.2 国际货币政策协调的原则 ·························································· 45

4.1.3 国际货币货币体系与国际货币政策协调关系 ··································45

4.1.4 国际货币政策协调实践 ····························································· 46

4.2 针对此次金融危机的国际货币政策协调实践 ·······································50

4.2.1 美国货币政策协调实践 ····························································· 50

4.2.2G20 峰会的国际政策协调 ···························································52

4.3 国际货币政策协调的发展趋势 ·························································53

4.3.1 麦金农方案 ············································································ 54

4.3.2 汇率目标区方案 ······································································ 54

第五章中国参与货币政策国际协调问题 ·················································· 56

5.1 中国参与货币政策国际协调的必要性 ················································56

5.1.1 开放经济条件对我国货币政策的影响 ·········································· 56

5.1.2 开放经济下我国货币政策对国际社会的影响力 ·······························58

5.2 中国参加国际货币政策协调面临的问题 ············································ 60

5.2.1 我国货币政策效率不高 ····························································· 60

5.2.2 我国参与国际货币政策协调的国际环境因素 ··································62

5.3 中国参加货币政策国际协调的目标、原则与对策 ································63

5.3.1 中国参加货币政策国际协调的目标 ··············································63

5.3.2 中国参加货币政策国际协调的原则 ··············································64

5.3.3 对策建议 ··············································································· 64

5.4 我国关于改革国际货币体系的建议 ···················································66

5.4.1 稳定、有效而公平的国际货币体系是一种公共品 ····························66

5.4.2 现行货币体系的特征及其缺陷 ···················································· 67

5.4.3 我国关于国际货币体系改革的建议 ············································· 67

参考文献 ··························································································· 69

公开发表的论文 ·················································································· 72

致谢 ································································································· 73

第一章导论

1.1 选题背景和意义

20 世纪90 年代以来，金融稳定逐渐成为各国中央银行和相关国际机构关注的

重点，此次次债危机引发的全球金融风暴更使金融稳定成为当下最热门的研究课

题。国外对于金融稳定的研究主要集中于金融脆弱性的发生机制和传导机制；国

内的研究则更多从金融风险或者金融危机角度去探讨。在对加强金融稳定的治理

实践方面各国政府、国际金融组织等机构进行了大量富有成效的探索，并随着经

济的不断变迁，一些理论研究成果也在不段的更新。

然而在目前的经济金融环境在，金融稳定已经不单单是一国自身环境能够决

定，而需要整个国际社会的努力。这就需要在金融稳定的框架下积极考虑国际金

融协调，对于各国央行而言，主要开展货币政策的协调。同时由于在开放经济体

系下，各国货币政策独立性受到影响，而且其运作空间也受到限制，这就影响了

货币政策的有效性。这就说明了即便一国不主动参与国际货币政策协调也会被动

的受到影响，甚至还可能因为货币政策上的冲突，产生对金融体系的外生冲击，

不利于本国金融稳定。

出于增强金融稳定的目的，分析货币政策的协调在金融脆弱性国际传导过程中

能抑制危机的放大效果，并提高危机救助的效率。既然参与国际货币政策协调能

够增强金融稳定性，那么如何进行国际货币政策的协调？我国参加国际货币政策

协调如何能够做到趋利避害？这些都是本文探讨的问题。

1.2 概念的分析界定

在对金融稳定视角下的国际货币政策协调进行探讨前，先必须明确两个概念：

一、什么是金融稳定；二、什么是国际货币政策协调。

1.2.1 金融稳定的内涵

由此次金融危机的爆发可见，金融风险的性质及其累积速度发生空前改变。

在此之前国际货币基金组织、世界银行、国际清算银行等国际金融机构和多数国

家的央行都定期发布金融稳定报告以强调金融稳定的重要性1。那么何为金融稳

定？目前国际学术界尚未达成共识，然而诸多界定中主要分为两种思路：第一类

直接指出金融稳定的具体特征；第二类则定义了金融稳定的相反面——金融不稳

定，然后把其相反面定义为金融稳定。

(一)正面定义金融稳定的相关论述

1中国人民银行金融稳定分析小组，中国金融稳定报告（2009 年）[M]，中国金融出版社，2009.6

文档加载中……请稍候！
如果长时间未打开，您也可以点击刷新试试。

下载文档到电脑，查找使用更方便

15 积分 4人已下载

立即下载 VIP免费下载

摘要：

摘要席卷全球的2008金融风暴，影响之广泛、蔓延之迅速以及破坏力之巨大堪称大萧条以来之最。各国政府以及国际机构面对金融危机疲于应付，分析危机发生的根源除了宏观经济层面上的全球经济失衡和现行国际货币体系不适应经济发展外，微观层面上的金融创新和金融衍生品缺乏监管导致的过度投机加剧了危机的传导。次贷危机本身是对世界经济的一个外生冲击事件，而能够引发一系列的银行危机、信用危机则是由于金融体系内部脆弱性造成，如何加强金融稳定的研究无疑在全球范围形成一种趋势。在开放经济条件下研究金融稳定不免要考虑到国际环境。国际金融市场的高度发展和国际资本的频繁流动使得一国货币政策效应很快传递到另外的国家，除了带来的溢出...

展开>> 收起<<

金融稳定视角下的国际货币政策协调问题研究.pdf

共76页,预览8页

还剩页未读，继续阅读

金融稳定视角下的国际货币政策协调问题研究

相关推荐

开通VIP享超值会员特权

作者详情

相关内容

推荐作者

热门标签

举报选择: