世博中心能源系统风险管理研究

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3.0 高德中 2024-11-19 5 4 1.82MB 79 页 15积分

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摘要

世博中心，是世博会期间的指挥运营中心、庆典中心、文化交流中心、新闻

中心、接待宴请中心，世博会后已成为上海国际性会议中心。世博中心通过新能

源、新技术、新材料的广泛使用和生态环境等方面的优化安排，实现可持续的运

营、使用与发展，成为“绿色建筑”的典范，已获得中国和美国绿色建筑标准的

双重认证，成为国内首获双重认证的绿色建筑。

世博中心的能源系统采用冰蓄冷、江水源热泵、水蓄冷和太阳能光伏发电等

多项绿色能源技术，是国内大型建筑工程中应用最复杂的能源系统，加上世博中

心承载非常重要的接待任务，不允许有大的差错，因此确保世博中心能源系统的

安全、正常运行是一个非常重要的课题，上海市科委为此设立专项研究课题《世

博中心、主题馆能源系统运营保障技术研究》。而世博中心能源系统风险管理的研

究是这个研究课题中的核心内容，对做好世博中心能源系统保障有很重要的理论

和现实意义，对今后大型建筑工程能源系统风险管理也具有指导意义。

本文在对国内外工程项目风险研究现状进行阐述的基础上，介绍了选题背景

及研究意义，将工程项目风险管理的理论及技术应用到世博中心能源系统的风险

管理研究中，构建了基于绿色能源技术的世博中心能源系统体系，对世博中心能

源系统进行了风险识别、风险评价,提出了风险应对及控制的策略，并对世博中心

能源系统运营保障措施进行了研究，本文的研究内容已成功应用于世博中心能源

系统运营保障中，取得了很好的效果，研究成果得到科委组织的专家评审组的好

评。

本文的主要内容及创新点如下：

（1）结合世博中心特点，提出了大型建筑项目能源系统风险管理体系，建立

了能源系统的风险评价指标体系，并利用模糊综合评价法对世博中心能源系统进

行风险评估，并将所得结论应用于管理实践，得到实践的检验和专家的好评。

（2）从保障世博中心安全有效运营的角度对世博中心的能源系统进行了全

面、系统的风险识别，识别的范围和深度都是前所未有的，风险识别的结果在世

博中心具体运营中得到了实际运用，对能源系统的运营维护起到了指导作用。

（3）分析了世博中心新能源技术特点，构建了能源系统的故障树，利用模糊

Petri 网构建了故障分析与诊断模型，并将模型应用到冰蓄冷、江水源热泵、水蓄

冷系统分析中，所得结论应用到世博中心能源系统风险应对与故障诊断导则中，

收到了良好的效果。

（4）针对风险识别、风险评价以及重点系统故障分析与诊断的研究结果，提

出了世博中心能源系统风险应对与保障策略，成为世博中心能源系统运营维护保

障体系的重要组成部分。

本文研究的内容和成果具有非常强的实用价值，世博集团准备将其成果应用

于即将新建的虹桥国家会展建设项目中。

关键词：能源系统模糊综合评价故障树分析模糊 Petri 网风险管

理

ABSTRACT

The Expo Center, as the operation management center, ceremony center, cultural

exchange center, press center, reception center during the Expo, now has been the

international conference center. Because it has wholly arranged the synthetically

application of the new energy, new technology and new material and ecological

environment, and realised the sustainable operation, application and development, it has

become the model of the green architectures, and also gained the double authentication

of the green architectures standards from China and America, meanwhile has become

the first domestic green architectures gained the double authentication. The energy

system of the Expo Center has adopted the green energy technologies of water-source

heat pump, ice storage, water storage and solar photovoltaic power generation, which is

the most implicated energy system of the large scale architectural projects at home and

abroad, besides the Expo Center is the most important reception centre allowed no big

mistake made, as a result, insuring the energy system of the Expo Center operate

normally and safely is the important subject, then Shanghai science and technology

commission has set up the special research subject , the technology research on the

energy system operation and safeguard of the Expo Center and the theme pavilions.

Consequently the research on the energy system risk management of the Expo Center is

the key content of this subject, which not only has the important theory and practical

significance for the energy system safeguard of the Expo Center, but also has the

guiding significance for the energy system risk management of the large scale

architectures.

The paper, based on the general statement of the study situation of the large scale

architectural projects at home and abroad, introduces the research backgrounds and the

research significance, puts the theories and technologies of the risk management of the

architectural projects into the risk management research of the energy system of the

Expo Center, builds its energy system based on the green energy technologies, makes

risk identification and evaluation for the risk of its energy system, proposes the risk

response and control measures, and also does the research on the energy system

operation and safeguard measures of the Expo Center. The research contents of this

paper has successfully applied into the energy system operation and safeguard of the

Expo Center, and achieved the good performance, also gaining the approval from the

experts’ group organized by Shanghai science and technology commission.

In this paper, the main contents and innovation points are as following:

First, according to Expo Center’s features, the paper has put forwards the energy

system risk management system of the large scale architectures, built the risk evaluation

index system of the energy system, also made the risk evaluation to the energy system

of the Expo Center by the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and put the

conclusion into the management practices, which has been tested in the practices and

gotten the acclaim from the experts.

Second, from the standpoint of safeguarding the safe and normal operation of the

Expo Center, the paper has made the overall and systematic risk identification, whose

breadth and depth are both unprecedented, the consequences have been applied into the

Expo Center’s operation, which has the guiding significance for the operation and

maintenance of the energy system.

Third, it has analyzed the technology features of the new energy of the Expo

Center, set up the Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) of the energy system, built the model of the

fault analysis and diagnosis in the help of the fuzzy Petri nets (FPN), meanwhile put the

model into the analysis of the ice storage, water-source heat pump, and water storage.

Its conclusion has adopted into the Expo Center’s energy system risk response and fault

diagnosis, and achieved the good performance.

Fourth, as for the research results of the risk identification, risk evaluation and the

fault analysis and diagnosis of the key system, it has proposed the risk response and

safeguard measures of the Expo Center’s energy system, which has become the

important component of the safeguard system of the operation and maintenance of the

Expo Center’s energy system.

The research contents and achievements of this paper have the powerful practice

values, so Shanghai World Expo Group has planned to apply it into the new Hongqiao

national exhibition projects.

Key Words: Energy system, Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, Fault

Tree Analysis, Fuzzy Petri nets, Risk management

中文摘要

ABSTRACT

第一章绪论 ...................................................... 1

§1.1 研究背景 .................................................. 1

§1.1.1 选题背景 .............................................. 1

§1.1.2 研究意义 .............................................. 3

§1.2 国内外研究现状 ............................................ 3

§1.2.1 国外研究现状 .......................................... 3

§1.2.2 国内研究现状 .......................................... 5

§1.3 研究方法及内容 ............................................ 6

§1.3.1 研究方法 .............................................. 6

§1.3.2 研究内容 .............................................. 6

§1.4 本文创新点 ................................................ 8

第二章风险及风险管理概述 ......................................... 9

§2.1 风险 ...................................................... 9

§2.1.1 风险的定义 ............................................ 9

§2.1.2 风险的特点 ............................................ 9

§2.1.3 风险的分类 ............................................ 9

§2.2 风险管理 ................................................. 10

§2.2.1 风险管理的定义 ....................................... 10

§2.2.2 风险管理的目标与原则 ................................. 11

§2.2.3 风险管理的主要内容及步骤 ............................. 11

第三章世博中心能源系统风险识别 .................................. 13

§3.1 世博中心能源系统体系分析 ................................. 13

§3.2 世博中心能源系统风险识别 ................................. 16

§3.2.1 中央空调系统风险识别 ................................. 16

§3.2.2 电力系统风险识别 ..................................... 18

§3.2.3 给排水系统风险识别 ................................... 19

§3.3 本章小结 ................................................. 20

第四章基于模糊综合评价法的能源系统风险评价 ...................... 21

§4.1 模糊综合评价方法 ......................................... 21

§4.1.1 建立综合评价指标体系 ................................. 21

§4.1.2 确定评价集及指标权重 ................................. 22

§4.1.3 确定评价指标隶属度 ................................... 23

§4.1.4 层级模糊综合评价 ..................................... 24

§4.2 世博中心能源系统模糊综合评价 ............................. 25

§4.2.1 多层次模糊综合评价指标体系 ........................... 25

§4.2.2 专家咨询法确定权重 ................................... 27

§4.2.3 评价指标隶属度计算 ................................... 29

§4.2.4 层级模糊综合评价 ..................................... 31

§4.3 评价结论 ................................................. 37

§4.4 本章小结 ................................................. 38

第五章基于模糊 Petri 网的能源系统故障分析与诊断 .................. 39

§5.1 故障树分析法 ............................................. 39

§5.1.1 故障树分析法概述 ..................................... 39

§5.1.2 故障树分析法一般步骤 ................................. 39

§5.1.3 故障树常用符号及意义 ................................. 40

§5.2 模糊 Petri 网 ............................................. 41

§5.2.1 模糊 Petri 网的定义 ................................... 41

§5.2.2 模糊 Petri 网知识表达 ................................. 42

§5.2.3 合成模糊产生式规则 ................................... 43

§5.3 基于模糊 Petri 网的故障分析与诊断 ......................... 44

§5.3.1 模糊 Petri 网与故障树的结合 ........................... 44

§5.3.2 中央空调系统故障树分析模型 ........................... 45

§5.3.3 冷热源系统 FPN 故障诊断模型 ........................... 48

§5.3.4 基于 FPN 的故障诊断推理 ............................... 52

§5.4 本章小结 ................................................. 55

第六章世博中心能源系统风险应对及控制措施 ........................ 56

§6.1 世博中心能源系统风险应对策略 ............................. 56

§6.2 世博中心能源系统风险应对及控制措施 ....................... 57

§6.2.1 世博中心中央空调系统风险应对及控制措施 ............... 57

§6.2.2 世博中心电力系统风险应对及控制措施 ................... 58

§6.2.3 世博中心给排水系统风险应对及控制措施 ................. 59

§6.3 世博中心能源系统风险运营保障策略 ......................... 59

§6.4 本章小结 ................................................. 60

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摘要：

摘要世博中心，是世博会期间的指挥运营中心、庆典中心、文化交流中心、新闻中心、接待宴请中心，世博会后已成为上海国际性会议中心。世博中心通过新能源、新技术、新材料的广泛使用和生态环境等方面的优化安排，实现可持续的运营、使用与发展，成为“绿色建筑”的典范，已获得中国和美国绿色建筑标准的双重认证，成为国内首获双重认证的绿色建筑。世博中心的能源系统采用冰蓄冷、江水源热泵、水蓄冷和太阳能光伏发电等多项绿色能源技术，是国内大型建筑工程中应用最复杂的能源系统，加上世博中心承载非常重要的接待任务，不允许有大的差错，因此确保世博中心能源系统的安全、正常运行是一个非常重要的课题，上海市科委为此设立专项研究课题《世博...

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