基于生命周期理论的民营企业财务危机预警研究

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浙江财经学院硕士学位论文

摘要

“用 90%的时间考虑失败”。这是华人首富李嘉诚 2007 年 12 月在接受《商业

周刊》的访谈时留下的经验。他成功的秘诀并不在于比别人成功的更多，而是比

别人失败的更少。随着民营企业在我国国民经济发展中的地位越来越重要，民营

企业经营中存在的问题，特别是短寿问题也日益引起人们的关注。2008 年全球金

融危机引发的民营企业倒闭潮再次引起全社会的广泛关注。而导致这些企业倒闭

的直接原因通常是财务问题。

如何有效预防民营企业财务危机的发生，提高民营企业的抗风险能力，是延

长企业生命周期，促进经济健康、高效、快速发展的有效途径，因此本文致力于

在生命周期理论的基础上构建适用于我国民营企业的财务危机预警模型。迄今为

止，对企业财务危机预警的研究已经相当成熟，研究成果也很多，鉴于我国民营

企业数量众多、企业状况千差万别的现状，本文从生命周期理论的角度出发，分

析我国民营企业财务危机产生的原因，并以粗糙集理论为基础分阶段构建预警模

型，客观上提高了模型的针对性和适用性。由于数据方面的限制，本文实证研究

的重点放在民营企业成长期和成熟期两个阶段。

本文内容共分为六个章节：

第一章绪论部分主要说明本文的研究背景和研究意义，研究方法和研究思路,

及本文的创新点。

第二章理论基础部分从系统非优理论、危机管理理论、经济预警研究等不同

角度阐述了财务危机预警的合理性和可行性。文献综述部分分指标体系和模型构

建两个方面对财务危机预警的研究现状进行回顾和总结。对指标体系的选择可以

分为传统财务指标、现金流量指标和与非财务指标相结合三个阶段；而对预警模

型的研究创新相对较快，不仅限于传统的统计学方法，如多元判定模型、多元逻

辑模型和回归模型等，更是将生物学、遗传学和信息技术中一些方法应用到财务

危机预警中，推动预警模型研究的迅猛发展。

第三章民营企业财务危机原因分析部分在分初创期、成长期、成熟期和衰退

期四个阶段的基础上，结合各阶段民营企业的基本特征分析我国民营企业财务危

机产生的根本原因，为下文模型构建和指标体系的选择提供依据。

第四章和第五章是论文的核心。第四章模型构建部分以粗糙集理论为基础构

建理论模型，该章首先对粗糙集理论的基本概念进行解释，然后分步骤对模型构

建的方法和原理进行阐述和说明，为具体模型构建提供指导。第五章实证分析部

浙江财经学院硕士学位论文

分是对第四章模型构建的具体应用，该章首先在前人研究和原因分析的基础上构

建本文的指标体系，指标体系涵盖传统财务指标、现金流量指标和非财务指标三

个类型（共 20 个指标），具有一定的综合性；然后以沪深两市上市的民营企业为

范围选择样本（共 68 家），并对样本的指标数据进行收集和整理；本文在对样本

公司所处生命周期进行判断之后，将模型构建的重点放在成长期和成熟期两个阶

段。模型的构建是以理论模型为基础，分别构建民营企业成长期预警模型和成熟

期预警模型，并对模型的有效性进行验证；验证结果表明，基于粗糙集理论的预

警模型是有效的。

第六章结论及建议部分对实证研究的过程和结果进行分析，着重分析了几个

核心指标与民营企业财务危机之间的关系，并将成长期与成熟期模型之间的差异

进行对比，并提出两个阶段规避财务危机发生的相关建议。

本文的主要创新之处是将生命周期理论应用于模型的构建，细化了研究对象，

提高了模型的针对性。但是由于数据上的限制，所构建的模型在预测效果、预测

精度和预测范围上都有局限性，有待进一步改进。

关键词:财务危机预警；民营企业；生命周期理论；粗糙集理论

浙江财经学院硕士学位论文

III

ABSTRACT

As the private enterprises play a more and more important role in development of

China's national economy, problems existing in the management, especially the

short-lived problem increasingly drew people's attention. In 2008, many private

enterprises collapse, caused by the global financial crisis, caused extensive concern of

the whole society again, while these crises are usually caused by financial problems

directly.

How to prevent the private enterprise financial crises effectively, and improve the

ability of private enterprise to resist risk, is effective way to extend the life cycle of

private enterprises, and to promote the economy developing healthy, efficiently and

rapidly. On the basis of previous studies, this article reveals the causes of financial crisis

of private enterprises on basis of life cycle by stages, and to construct warning model

based on the empirical analysis cause of rough set theory, the purpose is to establish a

simple and effective early-warning system for private enterprise financial crisis.

The content of this article is divided into six chapters:

The first chapter introduction is to illustrate the main research background and

significance of research, the research methods and steps, and the innovations.

The second chapter first expounds the theory basis of financial crisis pre-warning

from different angles, such as System of Non-best Theory, Crisis Management Theory,

and Economic Warning Research. The literature review reviewed and summarized the

status of crisis warning research from two parts: sub-index system and model

construction. The research of index system were divided into three stages: traditional

financial indicators, cash flow indicators and the combined to non-financial indicators,

But the development of constructing in the early warning model relatively faster, not

only limited to the traditional statistical methods, such as the multivariate linear models,

multivariate logical model, multiple regression model and so on, but also used

technology of biology, genetics, and information in some methods to finance crisis

pre-warning, promote the rapid development of early warning model research.

The third chapter analyzed the causes of financial crisis in private enterprises in

four parts: the initial, the growth, the maturity and the decline, based on the theory of

life cycle, to provide evidence for the causes for the constitutive model building and the

浙江财经学院硕士学位论文

selection of index system.

The fourth chapter and the fifth chapter is the core. The fourth chapter build a

theoretical model based on rough set theory, this part first explained the basic concept of

rough set theory, then discussed methods and explained principle of constructing model

by steps, to provide guidance for the built specific model.

The fifth chapter of empirical analysis is specific application of the fourth chapter,

this part first build the index system on the base of previous research and analysis of

causes, index system covering of three types of index :traditional financial indicators,

cash flow indicators and non-financial indicators (totally 20), has certain

comprehensiveness, Then choose samples with a range of private enterprise listed in

Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange (totally 68), and collected and

sorted index data of the 68 samples; After judging life cycle of the samples, the research

will focus on growth and maturity two stages. Based on theoretical model, this article

will build growth early warning model and maturity warning model, and verify the

validity of the model. The results showed that early warning model based on the rough

set theory of is effective.

The sixth chapter analyzed the process and the results for empirical research. This

chapter analyzed the relationship between some key indicators and private enterprise

crisis, and compared the differences between growth model indexes and maturity model

indexes, put forward relevant suggestions on how to avoid financial crisis in two stages.

Life cycle theory is applied in the construction of model is the main innovation in

this paper, refine of the study and improve the relevance of the model. But because of

the restrictions on the data, the model has some limitations on forecast period, forecast

accuracy and forecast range, need to be further improved.

Keywords: Financial Crisis Pre-warning; Private Enterprise; Life Cycle Theory; Rough

Ret Theory

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摘要：

浙江财经学院硕士学位论文I摘要“用90%的时间考虑失败”。这是华人首富李嘉诚2007年12月在接受《商业周刊》的访谈时留下的经验。他成功的秘诀并不在于比别人成功的更多，而是比别人失败的更少。随着民营企业在我国国民经济发展中的地位越来越重要，民营企业经营中存在的问题，特别是短寿问题也日益引起人们的关注。2008年全球金融危机引发的民营企业倒闭潮再次引起全社会的广泛关注。而导致这些企业倒闭的直接原因通常是财务问题。如何有效预防民营企业财务危机的发生，提高民营企业的抗风险能力，是延长企业生命周期，促进经济健康、高效、快速发展的有效途径，因此本文致力于在生命周期理论的基础上构建适用于我国民营企业的财务...

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