集团化经营与企业财务风险实证研究——基于上市公司集团属性的分类

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3.0 李佳 2024-09-20 5 4 371.37KB 51 页 150积分

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摘要

世界各经济体在经历了由美国次贷危机引发的全球范围的金融危机之后，进

入了后危机时代。在新形势下，内外部环境的急剧变化使得同处于全球化体系中

的中国企业正面临着前所未有的挑战。企业集团以其巨大的资产规模、高额的营

业收入和利润，以及独特的内部市场，在竞争中具有较强的竞争力。然而，我国

企业集团也存在着巨大的、隐藏的、具有极大影响的财务风险。一方面，企业集

团由于其特有的组织结构，财务风险具有很强的扩散性和多层渗透能力，集团内

部一旦某个企业发生财务危机，极易通过集团成员企业间千丝万缕的关系迅速扩

散到其他关联成员企业。同时企业集团具有极高的融资杠杆水平和股权融资放大

效应，从而集聚着大量的社会资金，一旦发生财务危机，其波及面会迅速扩大。

另一方面，集团化经营形成的多层级控股结构及其错综复杂的融资方式，也大幅

增加了金融机构等外部投资人与企业集团之间的信息不对称，使外部市场无法有

效识别企业集团的真实经营情况，这也就加大了银行、机构投资者等的投资风险。

如果这种投资风险得不到有效控制，将可能成为一个国家金融风险和经济风险的

源头，给整个国民经济埋下巨大的风险隐患。

因此，从财务风险的角度研究集团化经营的经济后果就成为一个十分重要的

课题。企业集团化经营会加大还是会减小企业的财务风险？如果加大了企业的财

务风险，那么企业集团化经营方式的不同是否会导致企业财务风险的差异？企业

集团化经营的方式多种多样，本文选取集团成员企业上市方式角度，来研究集团

成员企业不同上市方式给企业带来的财务风险的差异性。该研究有助于加强企业

集团对财务风险的重视，防范财务危机；提高银行等金融机构和中小投资者对企

业集团财务风险的认识，做到理性投资；使政府监管部门从财务风险的角度加强

对企业集团的监管，从而增强企业集团乃至整个国民经济的稳定性和长期、持续、

健康发展。

本文研究的核心问题就是在相关研究文献的基础上，首先将上市公司按照其

集团属性分为两大类：集团成员企业和非集团成员企业，然后再将集团成员企业

细分为母公司上市公司、单子上市公司、多子上市公司。最后再在该分类的基础

上，对上市公司的财务风险进行实证研究，发现集团成员企业的财务风险比非集

团成员企业大，进一步分析发现，在集团成员企业类别内，母公司上市公司的财

务风险最大，单子上市公司其次，多子上市公司最小。为了检验以上结论的稳健

性，本文又运用多元逻辑回归（Logistic）模型计算了公司陷入财务危机的概率 P

值，发现 P值与财务风险（Z值）之间存在显著的线性关系，即验证了 Z值模型

在我国集团成员企业内的适用性；在对检验结果的分析中还发现了本文对集团成

员企业分类科学性的证据。

本文共六章。第一章，提出了文章的研究背景和研究意义，研究内容、研究

方法和创新点。第二章，在界定了本文的核心概念之后，对国内外关于企业集团、

财务风险和集团财务风险方面的研究成果进行了归纳整理，总结了这三个方面的

主要研究结论，为下一步假设的提出做好铺垫。第三章，研究设计，包括假设的

提出、财务风险测量模型的比较与选择和样本的选择。第四章，实证分析，运用 Z

值模型测量企业的财务风险，再运用多元线性回归模型对 Z值与上市公司类型之

间的关系进行回归分析，得出结论。第五章，运用 Logistic 模型测算企业发生财务

危机的概率 P 值，再运用一元线性回归模型验证 P值与 Z值之间的关系，从而完

成了对本文实证分析部分的稳健性检验。第六章，总结本文的主要结论，并对三

类集团成员企业分别提出了针对性的建议，最后对进一步的研究作了展望。

关键词：集团化经营；财务风险；财务危机；集团成员企业

ABSTRACT

After the global financial crisis triggered by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, the

world's economies have entered a post-crisis era. Under the new situation, the dramatic

changes in internal and external environment lead Chinese enterprises which are also in

the global system to face unprecedented challenges. Because of the huge asset size, high

revenues and profits, and the special internal market, Enterprise Group has a strong

competitive edge in competition. However, there are huge, hidden financial risks which

have a great impact on Enterprise Group. On the one hand, because of Enterprise

Group’s special organizational structure, its financial risks has a strong diffusion and

multi-layer penetration, when a intra-group firm occurs financial crisis, which is easy to

spread to other group members through the complicated relationship between them.

Enterprise Group also has a very high level of financial leverage and the amplification

effect of equity financing, which gathers a great deal of social capital. In the event of

financial crisis, the ramifications will expand rapidly. On the other hand, multi-tier

holding structure and the complex financing of group-operation leads to a substantial

increase in information asymmetry between external financial institutions and

Enterprise Group, so that the external market can not identify the true operation

effectively, that also increases institutional investors’ investment risks. If the investment

risks is not controlled effectively, it may become the source of a national financial risks

and economic risks, bring a huge potential risks to the whole national economy.

Thus, it is a very important issue to discuss the economic results of

group-operation from the perspective of financial risks. Will group-operation increase

the company's financial risks, or not? If it increases financial risks, will the differences

of group-operation’s modes produce different financial risks, or not? Group-operation

has a variety of ways, the paper selects listing ways of group members to study the

difference of financial risks. The study will help firms to pay more attention to financial

risks, prevent of financial crisis; improve financial institutions and small investors in the

understanding of financial risks and ensure rational investment; make government

supervisors strengthen the supervision to Enterprise Group, that enhances the stability

of Enterprise Group and the whole national economy and their long-term, sustainable

and healthy development.

The core of this paper is based on the relevant research literature, first divides

listed companies into two categories in accordance with its group-properties: group

members and non-group members, and then subdivides group members into parent

company, one-subsidiary, more-subsidiaries. Finally, on the basis of the classification, I

make empirical research about listed company's financial risks, and find that group

members have larger financial risks than non-group members, further analysis shows

that parent company has largest financial risks and more-subsidiaries has smallest

financial risks, one-subsidiary’ financial risks is in the middle. To test the robustness of

these conclusions, the paper has used multiple logistic regression model to calculate the

probability(P) that a company can fall into financial crisis, and find that there is a

significant linear relationship between P and financial risks(Z). So I verify the

applicability of Z-score in group members, and also I find the evidence of my

classification’s scientificity for group members.

There are six chapters. The first chapter raises this paper’s background,

significance, contents, methods and innovation. On the base of defining the core

concept of this paper, Chapter II compiles and summarizes the domestic and foreign

research results on Enterprise Group, financial risks and Enterprise Group’s financial

risks, prepares for the putting forward of the assumptions. Chapter III is the research

design, including the raising of assumptions, the financial risks measurement model’s

comparison and selection, the selection of samples. The forth chapter is empirical

analysis, using Z-score model to measure the financial risks, and then using multiple

linear regression model to analyze the relationship between Z-score and the listed

companies’ types, getting the conclusions. In the Chapter V, I use logistic model to

calculate the P of financial crisis, and then use linear regression model to find the

relationship between P and Z. Chapter VI summarizes the main conclusions of this

paper, and putts forward pointed proposals to parent company, one-subsidiary and

more-subsidiaries. At last, I make an outlook for the further research.

Keywords: Group-operation; Financial risks; Financial crisis; Group members firms

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摘要：

摘要世界各经济体在经历了由美国次贷危机引发的全球范围的金融危机之后，进入了后危机时代。在新形势下，内外部环境的急剧变化使得同处于全球化体系中的中国企业正面临着前所未有的挑战。企业集团以其巨大的资产规模、高额的营业收入和利润，以及独特的内部市场，在竞争中具有较强的竞争力。然而，我国企业集团也存在着巨大的、隐藏的、具有极大影响的财务风险。一方面，企业集团由于其特有的组织结构，财务风险具有很强的扩散性和多层渗透能力，集团内部一旦某个企业发生财务危机，极易通过集团成员企业间千丝万缕的关系迅速扩散到其他关联成员企业。同时企业集团具有极高的融资杠杆水平和股权融资放大效应，从而集聚着大量的社会资金，一旦发生...

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