人民币汇率、对外贸易以及就业增长--基于2005年汇率改革的结构性突变检验

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浙江财经学院硕士学位论文

摘要

自从 2005 年 7 月汇率改革以来，人民币持续升值，累计升值幅度已经达到 20%

以上。人民币的升值会提高出口产品的价格，降低出口企业的利润，降低出口企

业对劳动力的需求。但是汇改以后，我国的就业增长并没有出现显著得下降。本

文主要考察了 2005 年 7 月的汇率改革是否促使人民币汇率与就业增长的关系发生

了结构性的突变，并对汇改以后人民币汇率变化对就业增长的具体效应进行进一

步得实证分析。

在理论分析上，本文从对外贸易渠道来分析了汇率变动对就业增长的影响。汇

率变动通过作用于对外贸易进而影响就业的路径主要有：资源优化配置路径、技

术进步路径、总需求路径、劳动力需求弹性路径。在实证分析中，为了更好地测

量人民币汇率变动对就业增长的影响，本文考虑了汇率变动通过出口导向、进口

渗透率、国内总需求，资本对劳动力的替代渠道对我国就业增长的影响。

为了检验 2005 年 7 月的汇率改革是否促使人民币汇率与就业增长的关系发生

了结构性的突变，本文运用 Chow-test，对 1994年1月到2010 年 3 月汇率的就业

方程进行检验，并通过引入虚拟变量建立结构检验模型,进一步确认了 2005 年汇

率改革促使人民币汇率与就业增长的关系发生了结构性的突变。这也是文章最重

要的创新点。

为了检验人民币汇率与就业增长的具体关系，本文选取了 1994 年 1 月—2005

年 6 月，2005 年 7 月—2010 年 3 月两个时间段，对人民币汇率、对外贸易以及就

业增长进行协整分析。结果表明人民币汇率、对外贸易以及就业增长存着长期协

整的关系。2005 年汇改前，人民币汇率变动对就业增长的效应并不显著。2005 年

汇改以后，人民币汇率变动对就业增长的效应为正，汇率的就业弹性系数通过了

显著性检验。汇改前后，人民币汇率对就业增长的效应发生了改变，这也验证了

之前的 Chow-test 的检验成果。

在此基础上，本文分析了 2005 年汇率改革后发生结构性突变的原因。汇率上

升通过价格信号促使劳动力和其他经济资源从贸易部门向非贸易部门流动，非贸

易部门对劳动力的需求促进了就业的增长；我国第三产业就业人数的增加，农村

劳动力从东部沿海地区向中西部地区就业的大规模转移；国家对中西部政策的支

持以及中西部经济的快速发展，都促进了我国就业的增长。

浙江财经学院硕士学位论文

III

实证分析中，本文还通过建立误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数以及方差分解实

证方法考察了 2005 年汇改以后人民币汇率对就业增长的长短期影响和影响程度。

在对人民币汇率对就业增长的脉冲响应分析中，从长期来看人民币汇率上升对就

业增长的效应为负。这主要是由于汇率上升促进了进口的增长, 进口中的资本比

重上升，引起了劳动力节省型的技术进步，减少了对劳动力的需求。

本文认为 2010 年 6 月的汇改重启后，国内外的经济和政治环境都发生了变化。

国际上对人民币升值的压力进一步加大。出口退税政策的退出，西方发达国家的

经济的缓慢复苏以及中国经济增长方式的改变都不利于我国对外贸易的持续扩

大。本文结合 2005 年汇率改革的实证分析结果，对如何降低人民币汇率上升对就

业增长的负面效应以及促进就业增长提出了政策建议。

关键词：汇率改革；人民币汇率；对外贸易；就业增长；Chow-test

浙江财经学院硕士学位论文

ABSTRACT

Since the exchange rate reform in July 2005, the RMB exchange rate has

appreciated continuously. The RMB exchange rate has appreciated more than 20%. The

RMB appreciation reduces profits of export business, decreases the demand for labor

and finally affects employment growth. But the employment growth doesn’t decrease

greatly. We need further research and analysis to test whether the relationship between

RMB exchange rate and employment growth. The paper mainly researches whether the

exchange rate reform in June 2005 stimulates the relationship of RMB exchange rate

and employment growth into structural change. Besides, the paper analyses the concrete

relationship of the RMB exchange rate fluctuations and employment growth.

In theoretical analysis, this paper analyzes the impact of the exchange rate on

employment growth through foreign trade channel. It further analyzes the relationship

between exchange rate and foreign trade, foreign trade and employment growth. In the

empirical analysis, in order to better measure the impact of RMB exchange rate on

employment growth, the paper consider the channels of export orientation, import

penetration, domestic aggregate demand, capital/labor intensity on the impact of

employment growth.

The paper uses Chow-test analysis to test the employment equation of exchange rate

to find whether the exchange rate reform in 2005 stimulates the relationship of the RMB

exchange rate and employment growth into a structural change by selecting sample data

from January 1994 to March 2010. This article sets a structural model to test the

structural change of employment elasticity coefficients of exchange rate by introducing

dummy variables. And it’s further confirms exchange rate reform in 2005 stimulates the

relationship of exchange rate and employment growth into a structural change. It is the

main innovative point in this paper.

To test the concrete relationship of RMB exchange rate and employment growth, the

paper uses co-integration analysis to study the long term relationship of the RMB

exchange rate, foreign trade and employment growth by dividing the sample into two

time periods base on the exchange rate reform in July 2005: one time period from

January 1994 to June 2005, the other time period from July 2005 to March 2010. The

result shows that the RMB exchange rate, foreign trade and employment growth keep a

浙江财经学院硕士学位论文

long-term co-integration relationship. After the exchange rate reform in 2005, the

employment effect of the exchange rate is positive, and the employment elasticity

coefficient of the exchange rate is statistically significant.

The paper analyzes the reason of structural change. The RMB appreciation promotes

labor and economic resources to flow from the trade sector to non-trade sector through

price signals. Especially the rural labor force’s employment increases in the tertiary

sector. A large scale rural labor force transfers from east to west to seek job. This is

mainly due to the substantially increase of foreign trade after the exchange rate reform

in 2005. The employment effect of exchange rate appreciation through aggregate

demand is weakened.The state enacts policy to support for Midwest, and the Midwest is

developing rapidly, and ultimately promotes the growth of employment.

In empirical analyses, this article use error correction model, the impulse response

function and variance decomposition to test the employment effect of the RMB

exchange rate in a long or short time period and the actual extent. The analysis of

impulse response shows effect of the RMB exchange rate on employment growth is

negative in the long term.

In the long run, it is mainly due to exchange rate appreciation promotes the increase

of import, and the ratio of capital in import rises ,then the path of technological progress

effects and decrease the demand of labor.

The article points out that in June 2010 our country faces with different economic

and political environment. The international pressure to revalue the RMB exchange rate

will be greater. The export tax refund policy has exerted, the slow recovery of western

developed countries will affect the increase of our foreign trade, and the mode of

economic growth will change which won’t favor the increase of foreign trade. This

article gives suggestions about reducing the negative effect of the RMB appreciation

and promoting the employment growth.

Key words: Exchange rate reform; RMB Exchange rate; Foreign trade; Employment

growth; Chow-test

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摘要：

浙江财经学院硕士学位论文II摘要自从2005年7月汇率改革以来，人民币持续升值，累计升值幅度已经达到20%以上。人民币的升值会提高出口产品的价格，降低出口企业的利润，降低出口企业对劳动力的需求。但是汇改以后，我国的就业增长并没有出现显著得下降。本文主要考察了2005年7月的汇率改革是否促使人民币汇率与就业增长的关系发生了结构性的突变，并对汇改以后人民币汇率变化对就业增长的具体效应进行进一步得实证分析。在理论分析上，本文从对外贸易渠道来分析了汇率变动对就业增长的影响。汇率变动通过作用于对外贸易进而影响就业的路径主要有：资源优化配置路径、技术进步路径、总需求路径、劳动力需求弹性路径。在实证分析中，...

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