提高政策可信度目标下的货币政策透明度研究

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浙江财经学院硕士学位论文

摘要

货币政策可信度涉及公众对中央银行公布的相关政策信息的信任程度，高的

货币政策可信度有助于中央银行以最小的成本稳定低通货膨胀，在当前我国通货

膨胀压力比较大的经济情形下，提高中央银行的货币政策可信度可以降低中央银

行反通货膨胀的成本，可见提高货币政策可信度是至关重要的。相关研究表明，

货币政策透明度是影响货币政策可信度的主要因素，而且货币政策透明度的提高

对改善货币政策可信度起着重要作用。

货币政策透明度是指在货币政策制定者和私人部门之间不存在信息不对称。

与早期相比，现在的中央银行的货币政策透明度有巨大的提高。近些年，许多中

央银行在货币政策目标、决策程序、理论依据、模型和数据等方面朝着更透明的

方向变化。那么，货币政策透明度的良好国际实践在改善货币政策可信度方面是

否取得了预期效果？货币政策透明度高的国家有什么样的特征？我国货币政策透

明度状况如何？是否需要进一步提高？如何提高？这是本文关注的几个核心问

题。

本文就以上几个核心问题从理论方面与实证方面进行了深入的研究。理论方

面，系统的阐述了货币政策透明度基本理论及货币政策可信度的基本理论，并基

于货币政策透明度的“信息效应”与“激励效应”分析了货币政策透明度与货币政策

可信度的关系。实证研究主要分为三个方面：第一个实证研究系统全面的从政治

透明度、经济透明度、程序透明度、政策透明度及操作透明度五个方面对美联储、

英格兰央行及欧洲中央银行的货币政策透明度实践进行分析，并阐述了货币政策

透明度对改善货币政策可信度的经验证据。通过分析，本文发现确实有经验上的

证据表明货币政策透明度的提高有助于改善货币政策可信度，并且货币政策透明

度的良好国际实践在改善货币政策可信度方面取得了预期效果。第二个实证研究

是关于货币政策透明度决定因素的方面。本文通过 18 个国家的面板数据，从货币

政策透明度的经济决定因素和政治决定因素对样本国家的货币政策透明度进行回

归分析，结果发现货币政策透明度与人均收入、历史通货膨胀水平、政治稳定性、

政府效率、监督效率与法律规则正相关，与公众话语权和金融深化程度负相关。

第三个实证研究是关于我国货币政策透明度的度量问题。本文运用 E&G 法对中国

人民银行现阶段的货币政策透明度进行了衡量，结果表明改革开放以来中国人民

银行的货币政策透明度已有明显提高，但与发达国家相比我国的货币政策透明度

指数整体水平还是偏低的，并且我国的货币政策在政治透明度、经济透明度、程

序透明度及操作透明度都是偏低的。

浙江财经学院硕士学位论文

最后，本文基于国际经验分析和国际比较，深入分析了我国货币政策透明度

偏低的原因；并结合全文的研究，提出提高我国货币政策透明度应从货币政策透

明度的外在环境与内在沟通机制方面进行改革。

关键词：货币政策透明度；货币政策可信度；货币政策透明度效应；货币政策

透明度决定因素

浙江财经学院硕士学位论文

III

ABSTRACT

Credibility of monetary policy refers the degree of public’s trust to the information

that central bank announced, and it is generally considered that high credibility of

monetary policy will help to stabilize the low inflation at the minimize cost .In the

current economic situation of china, inflationary pressure is relatively large. Raising the

credibility of the central bank's monetary policy can reduce the anti-inflationary cost of

central bank. It can be seen that improving the credibility of monetary policy is

important. Some researches indicate that transparency of monetary policy has a major

influence on the credibility of monetary policy，and has a decisive role in improving

credibility of monetary policy.

Transparency of monetary policy is the situation that asymmetric information does

not exist between monetary policy makers and the private sector. Comparing with the

early period, the transparency of the modern central bank has a huge increase. In recent

years, many central banks develop in the direction of more transparent. The central bank

appears more transparency in the monetary policy objectives, decision-making process,

theory, models and data, etc. Is the improvement in transparency of monetary policy has

the expected results in improving the credibility of monetary policy? What kind of

features does these countries that with high transparency of monetary policy have? How

does the situation in China? Does it need to improve? How to improve? These are the

focus of this article.

This paper studies the above questions from the theoretical and empirical

aspects .This text elaborates on the basic theory of monetary policy transparency and

credibility systematically in theoretical, analysis the relationship between transparency

and credibility of monetary policy based on "information effects” and “Incentive

effects”. Empirical research is divided into three areas. The first empirical study

analyses the practice of monetary policy transparency to Federal Reserve, Bank of

England and European Central bank. Then this test described the empirical evidences of

monetary policy transparency in improving the credibility of monetary policy. Through

the analysis, this paper finds empirical evidence that increased transparency of monetary

policy will help improve monetary policy credibility, and the enhancement in

transparency of monetary policy have achieved the desired effect in improving the

credibility of monetary policy.The second empirical study is about the determinants of

浙江财经学院硕士学位论文

transparency of monetary policy. Using panel data of 18 countries, this paper regress

monetary policy transparency on the economic and political determinants .The results

show that transparency of monetary policy positively related to per capita income,

history inflation, political stability, government efficiency, supervisor and the rule of

law. And monetary policy transparency has a negative correlation with financial

deepening and the public voice. The third empirical research is about the measurement

of China’s transparency of monetary policy, the author measure china’s transparency

index using E&G Method. It shows that china’s transparency towards the direction of

greater transparency. China's central bank's monetary policy show a increasing trend

in the overall level of transparency, but China's overall transparency index level is lower

compared with developed countries. By comparing the practice of monetary policy

transparency home and abroad, this paper finds out the reasons why China's central

bank transparency is lower. China’s political transparency、economic transparency 、

procedure transparency and operations transparency were lower than the foreign central

banks ,but policy transparency slightly higher than the policy of transparency.

Finally, basing on the international experience and international comparison , this

test analysis the reasons why China’s transparency in monetary policy is low .Then,

combined with the research of full test, this paper put forward some advance to enhance

China’s transparency of monetary policy from the external environment and internal

communication mechanisms aspect.

Keywords: transparency of monetary policy ; Credibility of monetary policy; the

effect of monetary policy Transparency ;determinants of monetary policy transparency

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摘要：

浙江财经学院硕士学位论文I摘要货币政策可信度涉及公众对中央银行公布的相关政策信息的信任程度，高的货币政策可信度有助于中央银行以最小的成本稳定低通货膨胀，在当前我国通货膨胀压力比较大的经济情形下，提高中央银行的货币政策可信度可以降低中央银行反通货膨胀的成本，可见提高货币政策可信度是至关重要的。相关研究表明，货币政策透明度是影响货币政策可信度的主要因素，而且货币政策透明度的提高对改善货币政策可信度起着重要作用。货币政策透明度是指在货币政策制定者和私人部门之间不存在信息不对称。与早期相比，现在的中央银行的货币政策透明度有巨大的提高。近些年，许多中央银行在货币政策目标、决策程序、理论依据、模型和数据等...

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