中国钢铁行业产能过剩的机理分析

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浙江财经学院硕士学位论文

III

摘要

钢铁行业是我国的支柱产业，对国民经济的发展具有重要的支撑作用。近年

来钢铁行业的产能过剩问题已经成为困扰我国经济的顽疾，导致钢铁行业利润率

低，企业深陷破产崩溃边缘，严重干扰了我国经济的正常发展。

本文通过分析认为钢铁行业产能过剩首先根源于我国的投资拉动型经济政

策。长期以来我国为了经济的快速发展，一直实行投资拉动型政策，固定资产投

资规模一直比较高。由于钢铁产业属于基础产业，同其他产业的关联度较高，从

而导致钢铁的市场需求不断扩大，这使得钢铁行业的规模经济壁垒降低。在位的

国内大型钢铁企业为了独占市场，会采取策略性行为，他们扩大投资规模以限制

潜在进入者的进入。但在一个扩大的市场中，在位大企业的策略行为未必能阻止

潜在进入者的进入，反而更容易带来“羊群效应”，众多中小企业在大型企业的示

范下会扩大投资。另外中小企业出于长期规模经济的考虑，会选择即使在过剩情

况下依然进入，而企业的不理性行为加剧了企业的过度进入。地方政府出于地方

财政收入和个人升迁的考虑，会积极鼓励企业投资，促使钢铁行业的产能过剩加

剧。

面对钢铁行业产能过剩愈演愈烈，国家出台了一系列政策和手段治理产能过

剩。但中央在治理产能过剩时同样面临着信息不完全的问题，因此其治理措施可

能会出现系统性偏差。我国还处在转轨的特殊时期，由于管制俘虏等因素，不同

的利益集团为了获取超额利润，会采取寻租行为，以影响政府的政策制定，这给

产能过剩带来了更多复杂性。

关键词：钢铁行业；产能过剩；机理分析；过度自信；管制俘虏

浙江财经学院硕士学位论文

ABSTRACT

Steel industry is the pillar industry in China, and it plays an important role in supporting the

development of national economy. In recent years the steel industry’s overcapacity has destroyed

Chinese economy, resulting in steel industry’s low profits .And many enterprise are on the brink of

collapse, which seriously interfere with the normal development of the our economy.

This paper deems that steel industry overcapacity first rooted in our investment-driven

economy policy. Our country has implemented the investment-driven policy to stimulate the

development of economy for a long time.The scale of investment in fixed assets have been relatively

high. Because the steel industry belongs to the fundamental industry, it results in higher degree of

steel market demand, which makes the scale economy barriers reduced.Because the large domestic

steel companies want to manipulate the market, they will take the strategic behavior, and expand

investment scales to smother limit potential entrants. But in an expanding market, the big enterprise's

strategic behavior does not necessarily prevent potential entrants. Many small and medium-sized

enterprises will expand investment because of the in large enterprise’s demonstration. And small and

medium-sized enterprises will choose even in excess circumstances from long-term scale economic

consideration, and the enterprise still enters the irrational behaviour intensifies the enterprise of

excessive enter. The local government of local fiscal revenue and personal promotion consideration,

will actively encourage enterprise investment, the steel industy overcapacity intensified.

Facing the steel industry’s overcapacity fiercely, our country has issued a series of policies to

handle it. But the central government also faces the problem of incomplete information.Thus its

measures might make systematic deviation. Our country is still at the transition of the special period,

in order to obtain excess profit, different interest groups will take the rent-seeking behavior to

influence government policies, which makes overcapacity problem more complexity.

Keywords: steel industry; overcapacity; the mechanism analysis; overconfidence;

regulatory capture

浙江财经学院硕士学位论文

第一章绪论.....................................................................................................................1

第一节问题的提出......................................................................................................................... 1

第二节论文的研究内容、框架及研究方法................................................................................. 2

第三节研究的可能创新之处......................................................................................................... 3

第二章相关概念及研究现状.........................................................................................4

第一节相关概念界定..................................................................................................................... 4

第二节文献综述............................................................................................................................. 5

第三节对国内外研究现状的评述................................................................................................. 8

第三章中国钢铁行业的现状及存在的问题.................................................................9

第一节我国钢铁工业蓬勃发展............................................................................................................ 9

第二节我国钢铁行业的逆集中化趋势明显...................................................................................... 12

第三节钢铁行业产能过剩问题突出.................................................................................................. 13

第四章钢铁行业产能过剩的机理分析.......................................................................15

第一节中央政府投资拉动型经济的影响.......................................................................................... 15

第二节企业的过度投资行为.............................................................................................................. 17

第三节钢铁行业的退出壁垒.............................................................................................................. 24

第四节地方政府对钢铁行业产能过剩的影响...................................................................................25

第五章中央管制政策与钢铁行业产能过剩...............................................................30

第一节我国钢铁产业政策的演化...................................................................................................... 30

第二节我国治理产能过剩的主要措施.............................................................................................. 31

第三节我国治理产能过剩政策的反思.............................................................................................. 32

第六章总结...................................................................................................................35

第一节结论.......................................................................................................................................... 35

第二节政策建议.................................................................................................................................. 35

第三节研究局限及展望...................................................................................................................... 36

参考文献.........................................................................................................................37

致谢

...............................................................................................................................39

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摘要：

浙江财经学院硕士学位论文III摘要钢铁行业是我国的支柱产业，对国民经济的发展具有重要的支撑作用。近年来钢铁行业的产能过剩问题已经成为困扰我国经济的顽疾，导致钢铁行业利润率低，企业深陷破产崩溃边缘，严重干扰了我国经济的正常发展。本文通过分析认为钢铁行业产能过剩首先根源于我国的投资拉动型经济政策。长期以来我国为了经济的快速发展，一直实行投资拉动型政策，固定资产投资规模一直比较高。由于钢铁产业属于基础产业，同其他产业的关联度较高，从而导致钢铁的市场需求不断扩大，这使得钢铁行业的规模经济壁垒降低。在位的国内大型钢铁企业为了独占市场，会采取策略性行为，他们扩大投资规模以限制潜在进入者的进入。但在一个扩大...

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