浙江省市县经济发展差异的影响因素及协调发展路径研究——基于空间计量模型的分析

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浙江财经学院本科生毕业论文（设计）

浙江省市县经济发展差异的影响因素及协调发展路径研究

——基于空间计量模型的分析

摘要：近年来浙江省的经济取得了快速发展，但区域经济发展不平衡现象也逐渐产

生。为考察浙江省的区域经济发展状况，本文搜集 2010 年浙江省 69 个市县人均 GDP、

出口总额等 8个经济指标的数据，对区域经济进行描述性分析并考察区域经济发展不平

衡现状，发现浙江省南北存在较为显著的经济差异。继而本文对浙江省经济发展的空间

效应进行检验，在通过空间效应检验的基础上建立空间误差模型并对经济状况进行定量

分析，结果显示空间误差模型较之一般 OLS 模型更为合理，产业结构、房地产投资等

变量对区域经济增长影响并不显著，而出口、消费等能够有效拉动经济增长。

关键词：浙江省；区域经济；发展差异；空间计量模型

Studies on the Influencing Factors for Economic Development Imbalance

and the Coordinated Development Path of Zhejiang Province

——A Spatial Econometrics Perspective

Abstract: In recent years the economy of Zhejiang Province has achieved rapid

development, but the imbalance of regional economic development also has gradually

emerged. In order to investigate the regional economic development in Zhejiang Province, the

author collect the data of 8 variables such as real GDP per capita, total exports etc. of 69

counties in Zhejiang Province of year 2010.Firstly, and the author did detailed descriptive

analysis on the regional economy. It is found that there are significant economic difference

between north region and south region in Zhejiang Province. Then the author tested the spatial

effects of economic development in Zhejiang Province. By using spatial error model, the

author made a quantitative analysis of the economic situation. The results showed that the

spatial error model is more reasonable than the general OLS model; factors such as industrial

structure, real estate investment are not significant factors for economic development.

However, exports, consumption, etc. can effectively stimulate economic growth.

Key words: Zhejiang; regional economic; development differences; spatial econometrics

model

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浙江财经学院本科生毕业论文（设计）

1引言............................................................................................................................. 1

2空间计量方法简介.......................................................................................................... 2

2.1 截面数据的空间效应检验..................................................................................... 2

2.1.1 全局空间自相关指标................................................................................... 2

2.1.2 空间自相关系数相关图............................................................................... 3

2.1.3 区域空间自相关指标................................................................................... 4

2.1.4 空间散点图...................................................................................................4

2.2 空间计量模型.......................................................................................................... 5

2.2.1 空间滞后相依模型.......................................................................................5

2.2.2 空间误差模型...............................................................................................5

3浙江省市县区域经济发展差异的实证分析....................................................................6

3.1 变量选取与数据收集.............................................................................................6

3.2 市县经济发展差异的空间计量描述性统计分析.................................................. 7

3.2.1 地区性差异分析...........................................................................................7

3.2.2 变量的空间效应检验................................................................................. 10

3.3 市县经济发展差异的空间计量模型的估计与分析........................................... 14

3.3.1 一般模型构建.............................................................................................14

3.3.2 空间计量模型构建..................................................................................... 15

4结论与建议....................................................................................................................17

4.1 结论分析.............................................................................................................. 18

4.2 对策建议.............................................................................................................. 19

参考文献............................................................................................................................. 21

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