USST_Arts_112480744 基于改进综合模拟法的房地产预警研究

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摘要

房地产业是我国国民经济的重要支柱性产业，其现实发展状况同国民经济的

持续健康发展和居民生活水平提高息息相关。近年来，我国房价一直居高不下，

远超出普通百姓所能承受的范围。面对房价的高速增长，除了需要有相应的法律

法规来规范市场外，更迫切需要对房地产市场进行预控，促使房地产业健康、平

稳的发展。要对房地产市场进行预警预控管理，需要构建房地产预警系统，编制

房地产预警指数。

目前的房地产预警系统，建立预警指数时大多凭借专家经验，或者以经济统

计方法为主，对各种影响房地产因素相互之间作用的特点在预警中的作用重视不

够。本文以我国房地产预警系统为具体的研究对象，以综合预警指数的编制方法

为切入点，利用结构方程和主成分分析相结合的研究方法，尝试建立基于结构方

程的综合模拟房地产预警系统，以期拓展房地产预警系统研究的思路，给政府管

理、决策提供一些有益的启示。

本文对房地产预警的相关理论及结构方程理论进行阐述，研究分析房地产预

警的方法，在此基础上选定了房地产预警指标体系：以房地产业与国民经济关系、

房地产市场供求关系及金融业对房地产市场的支持度三大板块建立了房地产预警

指标体系，从而构成了我国房地产预警指标体系。依据综合模拟法房地产预警系

统基本构建流程，采用主成分分析法求得各大板块的预警指数，并创新地利用结

构方程模型进行验证性因素分析，求出各板块预警指数的权重合成综合预警指数；

利用误差理论划分预警区间，确定警度和预警信号，从而确定了较为合理的预警

模型。利用国家统计局 1998-2011 年度相关数据进行了实证分析，对预警指数进行

分析并给出相关的政策建议。结果表明我国房地产市场发展比较平稳，房地产市

场整体处于扩张上升阶段，房地产市场已经有转化到偏热甚至过热的趋势。最后

在实证分析的基础上，对本文研究成果进行总结，针对本研究的不足之处提出进

一步研究的方向。

本文创新点在于利用结构方程模型与传统主成分分析相结合，构建一套自己

的房地产预警指标体系，以此确定了预警指标体系的各项权重系数，编制综合预

警指数。在此基础上，将本文设计的房地产预警体系与我国房地产市场实际情况

相结合，进行了实证研究和预警分析。

关键字：房地产结构方程模型预警综合模拟法

ABSTRACT

Real estate is an important pillar of our national industry, with its practical

development of sustainable and healthy development of national economy and people’s

living standards improved closely related. In recent years, China's housing prices have

been high, far beyond the ordinary people can afford. The face of rapid growth in house

prices, in addition to the need for appropriate laws and regulations to regulate the

market, makes more urgent need for pre-control real estate market, the real estate

industry to promote the development of healthy and stable. To early warning of the real

estate market control management, early warning systems need to build real estate, real

estate early warning indicators of preparation.

The current real estate early warning system, establishing early warning indicators

mostly by virtue of expertise, or a method based on economic statistics and

characteristics to each other on a variety of factors influence the role of real estate in the

early warning of inadequate attention. In this paper, China's real estate early warning

system for the specific object of study, a comprehensive approach to the preparation of

early warning indicators as a starting point, research methods use principal component

analysis and structural equation combining, try to establish early warning system based

on a comprehensive simulation of structural equation of real estate in order to expand

Real Estate Early Warning system research ideas , to government management, decision

to provide some useful inspiration.

In this paper, theories and equations of the theory of the structure of the real estate

elaborate early warning , early warning of real estate research and analysis methods , on

the basis of selected real estate early-warning indicator system : relationship to the real

estate industry and the national economy, the real estate market supply and demand for

real estate and financial sectors market support three plates to establish early warning

indicators system of real estate, thus constituting a warning index system of real estate .

Comprehensive simulation method based on basic real estate early warning system

build process, using principal component analysis to obtain early warning indicators in

major sectors, and innovative use of structural equation modeling confirmatory factor

analysis, determine the weight of each sector early warning indicators of heavy

synthetic integrated early warning indicators; warning interval divided by the error

theory, to determine the degree of alarm and warning signals to determine a more

reasonable prediction model. The National Bureau of statistics 1998-2011 annual data

for the empirical analysis carries on the analysis to the early warning index and gives

some policy recommendations. The results showed that the development of China's real

estate market is relatively stable; the overall real estate market in the expansion phase of

the rise, the real estate market has been transformed into partial heat or hot trend.

Finally, on the basis of empirical analysis, summarizes the research results, in view of

the shortcomings of this study and proposes the direction of further research. Finally, on

the basis of empirical analysis, this paper summarizes the results of the study, presented

at the direction of further study for the inadequacies of the present study.

This innovation is the use of structural equation model with the traditional

combination of principal component analysis, to build its own set of early warning

indicators system of real estate, in order to determine the weighting factor early warning

indicator system, and to prepare comprehensive early warning indicators. On this basis,

the paper design of the real estate early warning system and the actual situation of

China's real estate market, combined with empirical research and early warning

analysis.

Key Word：Real estate, Structural equation model, Early warning,

Comprehensive simulation

中文摘要

ABSTRACT

第一章绪论 ........................................................ 1

1.1 研究背景及意义................................................. 1

1.1.1 研究背景 ................................................... 1

1.2 国内外研究现状................................................. 3

1.2.1 国外研究现状 ............................................... 3

1.2.2 国内研究现状 ............................................... 4

1.3 研究目的、内容和创新点......................................... 6

1.3.1 研究的目的 ................................................. 6

1.3.2 主要内容 ................................................... 6

1.3.3 本文的创新点 ............................................... 7

第二章研究的理论基础 ............................................... 9

2.1 房地产预警的相关理论........................................... 9

2.1.1 房地产周期波动理论 ......................................... 9

2.2.2 房地产预警系统基本概念 .................................... 10

2.2.3 房地产预警的研究方法 ...................................... 11

2.2.4 综合模拟法预警的基本流程 .................................. 13

2.2 结构方程模型.................................................. 14

2.2.1 结构方程模型的概念 ........................................ 14

2.2.2 结构方程模型的建模步骤 .................................... 16

2.2.3 结构方程的适用性和优势 .................................... 17

2.2.4 结构方程模型的应用 ........................................ 19

2.3 本章小结...................................................... 20

第三章基于结构方程的综合模拟房地产预警系统的设计 .................. 21

3.1 预警系统构建的基本思路........................................ 21

3.2 预警指标体系的设计............................................ 21

3.2.1 指标选取的原则 ............................................ 21

3.2.2 预警指标的选取 ............................................ 22

3.3 分板块预警指数的合成.......................................... 23

3.3.1 主成分分析法的概念 ........................................ 23

3.3.2 主成分分析模型 ............................................ 24

3.3.3 板块预警指数的合成 ........................................ 25

3.4 综合预警指数的编制方法........................................ 25

3.4.1 综合预警指数的合成方法 .................................... 25

3.4.2 房地产预警系统结构方程模型的构建 .......................... 26

3.4.3 验证性因子分析 ............................................ 27

3.5 预警区间的确定................................................ 29

3.6 本章小结...................................................... 30

第四章基于结构方程的综合模拟我国房地产预警的实证分析 .............. 32

4.1 我国房地产现状分析............................................ 32

4.1.1 我国房地产发展与宏观经济的分析 ............................ 32

4.1.2 我国房地产供需市场分析 .................................... 33

4.1.3 我国房地产的金融支持度分析 ................................ 35

4.2 预警指标的选择 ................................................ 37

4.2.1 数据搜集 .................................................. 37

4.2.2 指标分类筛选 .............................................. 38

4.3 综合预警指数的编制............................................ 40

4.3.1 主成分分析确定各板块指标 .................................. 40

4.3.2 验证性因素分析确定综合预警指数的权重 ...................... 43

4.3.3 综合预警指数的编制 ........................................ 46

4.4 划分预警区间.................................................. 47

4.5 预警指标分析.................................................. 48

4.6 政策建议...................................................... 49

4.7 本章小结...................................................... 50

第五章总结和展望 .................................................. 51

5.1 总结.......................................................... 51

5.2 展望.......................................................... 52

参考文献 ........................................................... 54

在读期间公开发表的论文和承担科研项目及取得成果 ..................... 58

致谢 .............................................................. 59

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摘要：

摘要房地产业是我国国民经济的重要支柱性产业，其现实发展状况同国民经济的持续健康发展和居民生活水平提高息息相关。近年来，我国房价一直居高不下，远超出普通百姓所能承受的范围。面对房价的高速增长，除了需要有相应的法律法规来规范市场外，更迫切需要对房地产市场进行预控，促使房地产业健康、平稳的发展。要对房地产市场进行预警预控管理，需要构建房地产预警系统，编制房地产预警指数。目前的房地产预警系统，建立预警指数时大多凭借专家经验，或者以经济统计方法为主，对各种影响房地产因素相互之间作用的特点在预警中的作用重视不够。本文以我国房地产预警系统为具体的研究对象，以综合预警指数的编制方法为切入点，利用结构方程和主成...

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