USST_Arts_117160722 轨道交通网络可靠性控制策略分析

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摘要

随着社会经济的发展以及城市化的进行，交通拥堵现象日益突出，城市交通

系统承受着越来越大的压力。轨道交通系统因为本身具有运量大、准时、速度快、

安全可靠等优势成为解决城市交通问题的重点。而伴随着轨道交通网络所扮演角

色的不断加大，人们对于轨道交通网络在处理日常突发事故、灾难的应变能力及

系统稳定性提出了更高的要求。

城市轨道交通网络作为城市建设的重中之重，是网络化运营的基础条件，直

接关系到城市经济的发展、城市功能的体现和市民出行生活的便利。但是由于设

备故障、大客流波动和人为失误等不可控因素，会对运营产生不良影响，甚至造

成站点功能失效。利用复杂网络理论分析节点失效对网络的影响程度及可靠性分

析，有助于制定科学的交通管理策略，为突发事件的应急预案提供参考，对于提

高交通网络的运营效率和服务质量具有重要的理论和现实意义。

城市轨道交通网络的拓扑结构对于网络的可靠性有着重要的影响，本文基于

Space L 和Space P 方法对轨道交通网络进行拓扑建模，主要内容有以下几个方面：

第一，本文分析介绍了图论和复杂网络的相关理论知识以及交通网络可靠性

的国内外研究现状。对轨道交通网络进行了复杂网络拓扑建模，并分析了轨道交

通网络的特点、静态特性指标和几种可靠性度量指标。

第二，通过对上海轨道交通网络的实证研究，发现上海轨道交通网络的平均

最短路径较小，集聚系数较小，而且是一个典型的无标度网络。通过对几个关键

站点的蓄意攻击比较几个可靠性评价指标的前后变化，确定网络的全局效率作为

评价网络可靠性的指标。通过对轨道交通网络进行随机攻击和蓄意攻击，模拟攻

击显示蓄意攻击对网络可靠性造成更大的破坏，站点的度值大小与其重要性并不

呈现绝对的正比关系，并通过模拟结果得出了轨道交通网络最重要的几个站点：

世纪大道站、宜山路站、上海火车站。在轨道交通的规划、建设、运营中，应加

强对关键站点的管理和保护。

第三，基于Space L和Space P方法对轨道交通网络进行拓扑建模，分析了两种

网络模型的复杂网络特性指标，并对两种网络采取不同的攻击策略进行攻击，发

现任何策略的蓄意攻击对于网络的破坏程度都大于随机攻击。在L空间中，不同策

略的蓄意攻击对网络的破坏程度依次为：RB>RD>ID>IB。而在P空间中，攻击初

期动态介数攻击对网络可靠性影响最大，其后动态度数攻击的影响最大。

关键词：复杂网络轨道交通随机事故蓄意攻击网络效率可靠性

ABSTRACT

With the development of social economy and urbanization, the phenomenon of

traffic jams becomes more prominent, and the urban traffic system is standing more and

more pressure. Rail transit system becomes the key to solve the problems of urban

traffic because of its large capacity, punctual, fast, safety and reliability and so

on. According to the increasing proportion of urban transit in urban transportation

system, it posed higher demand to the handling ability of daily sudden accident and the

reliability of the urban transit.

As the pinnacle of the urban construction, urban rail transit network is the

foundation of the network operating conditions, is related to the development of urban

economy, the reflection of urban functions and the convenience of civic life directly.

But because of the uncontrollable factors such as equipment failure, flow fluctuation of

the large passengers, human error and so on, it will have adverse impact on the

operations, and even cause the failure of the site function. To analysis the influence

degree of the node failure on the network and reliability using the theory of complex

network, it can help to develop scientific traffic management strategy, provide a

reference for emergency contingency plans, and have important theoretical and realistic

significance to improve the operational efficiency of traffic network and the service

quality.

The topology structure of the urban rail transit network has an important influence

on the reliability of the network, the rail transit network is topology modeling based on

the method of Space L and Space P in this paper. In this paper the research contents can

be summarized in the following three aspects:

Firstly, it introduces the relevant theoretical knowledge of graph theory and

complex network, the research status of transportation network reliability at home and

abroad in this paper. It has a topology modeling of the rail transit network, and analyzes

the characteristics, static characteristic index and several reliability metrics of the rail

transit network.

Secondly, through the empirical research of Shanghai rail transit network, found

that Shanghai rail transit network is a typical scale-free network, and its average shortest

path and cluster coefficient are small. Through the comparison on several reliability

evaluation indexes after deliberate attacks on several key sites, determining the global

network efficiency as evaluation index of network reliability. Then the random attacks

and intentional attacks are made to the rail transit network, results of simulation

experiment show that, more damages are caused on the network reliability by

intentional attacks, the degree value of the site is not presented absolute proportional

relationship with its importance, and through the simulation results, several important

sites of the rail transit network are concluded: century avenue station, Yishan road

station, Shanghai railway station. During the planning, construction, operation of the

rail transit, it should strengthen the management and protection of the core sites.

Thirdly, the rail transit network is topology modeling based on the method of

Space L and Space P in this paper, the characteristic parameters of the two kinds of

complex network models are analyzed, then different strategies are made to this two

networks, the simulation shows that the damages made by any deliberate attack strategy

for network is greater than the random attack. In the L space, the damages(from the

most to the least) made by different strategies of deliberate attack are as follows:

RB>RD>ID>IB. In the P space, the dynamic betweenness attack made the biggest

impact on the reliability of the network in the early time, and the influence of dynamic

degree attack is the largest in the later time.

Key Word：Complex Networks, Rail Transit, Random Accidents,

Intentional Attacks, Network Efficiency, Reliability

中文摘要

ABSTRACT

第一章绪论 ....................................................... 1

1.1 研究背景 ..................................................... 1

1.2 研究意义 ..................................................... 1

1.3 国内外交通复杂网络可靠性研究综述 ............................. 2

1.3.1 国外研究现状 ........................................... 2

1.3.2 国内研究现状 ........................................... 3

1.4 论文研究思路 ................................................. 5

1.4.1 论文的主要内容及研究思路 ............................... 5

1.4.2 论文的技术路线 ......................................... 6

1.5 本章小结 ..................................................... 7

第二章复杂网络相关理论基础 ......................................... 8

2.1 图论的基本理论 ............................................... 8

2.2 复杂网络的基本理论 ........................................... 9

2.3 复杂网络的基本统计特征 ...................................... 10

2.3.1 度与度分布 ............................................ 10

2.3.2 平均路径长度 .......................................... 11

2.3.3 集聚系数 .............................................. 12

2.3.4 介数 .................................................. 13

2.3.5 效率 .................................................. 13

2.4 复杂网络的几种模型 .......................................... 13

2.4.1 规则网络和随机网络 .................................... 13

2.4.2 小世界网络 ............................................ 15

2.4.3 无标度网络 ............................................ 17

2.5 本章小结 .................................................... 18

第三章基于复杂网络的轨道交通网络可靠性的研究 ...................... 19

3.1 城市轨道交通网络的构建 ...................................... 19

3.1.1 轨道交通网络的特点 ..................................... 19

3.1.2 关于轨道交通复杂网络化的假设 ........................... 20

3.1.3 有关轨道交通网络的几种静态特性指标 ..................... 21

3.2 关于轨道交通网络可靠性的定义 ................................ 21

3.3 几种城市轨道交通网络可靠性指标 .............................. 22

3.3.1 最大连通子图的相对大小 ................................. 22

3.3.2 网络的全局效率 ......................................... 23

3.3.3 网络的局部效率 ......................................... 24

3.4 本章小结 .................................................... 24

第四章上海市轨道交通网络实证研究 .................................. 25

4.1 上海轨道交通网络的拓扑结构及其网络描述 ...................... 25

4.2 上海轨道交通网络的静态特性分析 .............................. 26

4.2.1 节点的度、度分布及累计度分布 .......................... 26

4.2.2 平均路径长度 .......................................... 26

4.2.3 集聚系数 .............................................. 27

4.2.4 介数 .................................................. 28

4.3 上海市轨道交通网络可靠性分析 ................................ 28

4.4 本章小结 .................................................... 31

第五章轨道交通网络可靠性控制策略分析：以上海轨道交通为例 .......... 33

5.1 建模方法及数据说明 .......................................... 33

5.2 网络可靠性攻击的几种策略分析 ................................ 33

5.3 基于两种建模方法的上海市轨道交通网络静态特性分析 ............ 34

5.4 轨道交通网络可靠性控制策略分析 .............................. 35

5.5 本章小结 .................................................... 37

第六章总结与展望 .................................................. 39

6.1 本文研究结论 ................................................ 39

6.2 论文的不足与展望 ............................................ 40

参考文献 ........................................................... 42

在读期间公开发表的论文和承担科研项目及取得成果 ..................... 45

致谢 ............................................................ 46

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摘要：

摘要随着社会经济的发展以及城市化的进行，交通拥堵现象日益突出，城市交通系统承受着越来越大的压力。轨道交通系统因为本身具有运量大、准时、速度快、安全可靠等优势成为解决城市交通问题的重点。而伴随着轨道交通网络所扮演角色的不断加大，人们对于轨道交通网络在处理日常突发事故、灾难的应变能力及系统稳定性提出了更高的要求。城市轨道交通网络作为城市建设的重中之重，是网络化运营的基础条件，直接关系到城市经济的发展、城市功能的体现和市民出行生活的便利。但是由于设备故障、大客流波动和人为失误等不可控因素，会对运营产生不良影响，甚至造成站点功能失效。利用复杂网络理论分析节点失效对网络的影响程度及可靠性分析，有助于制定...

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