江苏省传统产业转型路径选择研究

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摘要

2008 年金融危机以来，新的世界分工格局正在形成，发达国家正调整产业结

构，以应对随时孕育而生的产业技术革命。这对于发展中国家来说，正是承接产

业转移，进行产业转型的大好时机。而我国也处于经济转型的关键时期，在传统

产业发展尚不成熟的基础上还要大力发展新兴产业，所以传统产业转型路径的选

择显得格外重要。论文以江苏省传统产业转型为研究对象，从国际竞争力、国家

发展战略以及区域经济发展的三个角度，分析产业转型所需满足的条件，并以此

建立江苏省传统产业转型路径选择模型，并对典型传统产业进行实证分析，最终

分别给出转型建议。

论文主要分为四个部分：第一部分探讨了产业转型的基础理论，并对传统产

业的概念及特征进行了相关总结，同时还分析了产业结构、经济转型以及产业转

型之间的联系与区别，明确了传统产业转型的概念。第二部分对江苏省传统产业

转型路径选择进行了理论分析，首先是确定江苏省传统产业的类别，再根据确定

的传统产业类别分析江苏省传统产业发展现状以及转型的必要性，并由此探讨江

苏省传统产业转型的路径以及实现方式。江苏省传统产业转型路径大致分为三条：

转型新兴产业、继续作为经济支撑大力发展以及有序退出。第三部分根据第二部

分的理论分析，建立传统产业转型路径选择模型，首先采用熵权模糊决策法对传

统产业进行综合评价，最后再进行路径选择甄别。第四部分，选择江苏省的电气

机械和器材制造业、纺织业等七个典型传统产业进行模型验证，得出电气机械和

器材制造业、化学原料和化学制品制造业、黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业这三个产

业具有转型新兴产业的潜力，可以通过重大技术突破以及政策支持等方式培育出

新兴产业；而专用设备制造业、通用设备制造业、纺织业这三个产业还需要继续

大力发展，可以通过技术创新、建立产业集群等方式保持支柱产业地位；有色金

属冶炼和压延加工业则需要选择进行有序退出的转型路径。

关键词：传统产业产业转型熵权模糊决策路径选择模型

ABSTRACT

Since the financial crisis in 2008 the division of labor in the world has been

changing gradually. In order to face the industrial technology revolution developed

countries are adjusting their industrial structures. In the same time, it is a great

opportunity for developing countries to transform their industrial structures. Now,

China is also in a critical time of economic transformation. Since China is developing

its emerging industries in the base of premature traditional industries, the selection of

the approach of economic transformation is vital. This paper, from the perspective of

international competitiveness, international development strategy and regional

economic development, researches the transformation of traditional industries in

Jiangsu Province and analyzes the necessary requirements of economic transformation.

In addition, the paper establishes the selection model of economic transformation for

traditional industries in Jiangsu Province as well as analyzing classical traditional

industries by using practical examples. Finally, the paper discusses suggestions and

solutions for the economic transformation of traditional industries in Jiangsu Province.

This paper is divided into four sections: in the first section, it discusses the basic

theories of industrial transformation and explains the concepts and traits of traditional

industries. In addition, it analyzes the relationship and difference of industrial

structures, economic transformation and industrial transformation. In the second

section, it analyzes the transformation methods of traditional industries in Jiangsu

Province in a theoretical way. First, the paper classifies the traditional industries in

Jiangsu Province. Then it discusses the current situation and necessity of the

transformation of traditional industries in Jiangsu Province based on the above

classification. Furthermore, it discusses the map and approaches of transformation of

traditional industries in Jiangsu Province. The map of transformation of traditional

industries in Jiangsu Province is separated into three parts: Conversion Into Emerging

Industries, Continue to be the cornerstone of economics and reduce gradually. In the

third section, the selection model of economic transformation for traditional industries

in Jiangsu Province is created based on the theoretical analysis of second section. At

first, the model comprehensively evaluates the traditional industries using entropy

weight fuzzy decision, and then selects the best solution. In the last section, after

analyzing the electrical machinery, equipment manufacturing, textile and other five

typical traditional industries of Jiangsu province, the paper concludes that the electric

machinery, equipment manufacturing, chemical raw materials, chemical products

manufacturing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry have the

potential of transferring into emerging industries. Moreover, it is still necessary to

continually develop the special equipment manufacturing, general equipment

manufacturing and textile industry, and treat them as the pillar industries by technology

innovation and industrial clustery. As for the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling

processing industry, they need to be eliminated orderly.

Key Words：traditional industries, industrial transformation, entropy

weight fuzzy decision, path selection model

中文摘要

ABSTRACT

第一章绪论 ........................................................................................................... 1

1.1 研究背景及意义 .......................................................................................... 1

1.1.1 研究背景 ............................................................................................... 1

1.1.2 研究意义 ............................................................................................... 2

1.2 国内外研究综述 .......................................................................................... 2

1.2.1 国外研究综述 ....................................................................................... 3

1.2.2 国内研究综述 ....................................................................................... 4

1.3 研究思路和框架 .......................................................................................... 6

1.3.1 研究思路 ............................................................................................... 6

1.3.2 研究框架 ................................................................................................. 6

1.4 论文研究方法与创新点 .............................................................................. 7

1.4.1 论文研究方法 ....................................................................................... 7

1.4.2 论文创新点 ........................................................................................... 8

第二章产业转型基础理论 ..................................................................................... 9

2.1 产业相关概念 .............................................................................................. 9

2.1.1 产业概念与分类 ................................................................................... 9

2.1.2 传统产业概念与特征 ......................................................................... 10

2.1.3 传统产业、新兴产业、高技术产业 ................................................. 11

2.2 传统产业转型相关理论 ............................................................................ 11

2.2.1 产业结构调整、经济转型、产业转型 ............................................. 11

2.2.2 产业转型相关理论 ............................................................................. 12

2.2.3 产业生命周期理论 ............................................................................. 13

2.3 产业分析方法 ............................................................................................ 14

2.3.1 熵权分析方法 ..................................................................................... 14

2.3.2 模糊决策方法 ..................................................................................... 15

第三章江苏省传统产业转型路径选择理论分析 ............................................... 16

3.1 江苏省产业发展状况 ................................................................................ 16

3.1.1 江苏省社会经济发展概况 ................................................................. 16

3.1.2 江苏省产业结构现状 ......................................................................... 17

3.2 江苏省传统产业发展现状 ........................................................................ 18

3.2.1 江苏省传统产业界定 ......................................................................... 18

3.2.2 江苏省传统产业基本发展现状 ........................................................... 19

3.2.3 江苏省传统产业发展现存问题 ........................................................... 22

3.3 江苏省传统产业转型的必要性 ................................................................ 23

3.3.1 国际环境要求传统产业转型 ............................................................. 24

3.3.2 国内环境要求传统产业转型 ............................................................... 24

3.3.3 区域环境要求传统产业转型 ............................................................... 25

3.4 江苏省传统产业转型的主要路径及实现方式 ........................................ 25

3.4.1 传统产业转型的主要路径 ................................................................. 25

3.4.2 传统产业转型路径的实现方式 ........................................................... 27

3.5 江苏省传统产业转型路径选择 ................................................................ 28

第四章江苏省传统产业转型路径选择模型设计 ............................................... 30

4.1 实证模型构思 .............................................................................................. 30

4.2 综合评价指标体系的构建 ........................................................................ 30

4.2.1 综合评价指标体系的构建原则 ......................................................... 31

4.2.2 国际竞争力评价指标 ........................................................................... 31

4.2.3 国家发展战略评价指标 ..................................................................... 32

4.2.4 区域经济发展评价指标 ....................................................................... 34

4.2.5 评价指标体系的评判标准确定 ......................................................... 35

4.3 熵权模糊综合评价 .................................................................................... 36

4.3.1 确定权重 ............................................................................................. 36

4.3.2 模糊决策 ............................................................................................... 37

4.4 江苏省传统产业转型路径选择模型 ........................................................ 39

4.4.1 等级划分 ............................................................................................. 39

4.4.2 选择模型 ............................................................................................... 39

第五章江苏省传统产业转型路径选择实证分析 ............................................... 41

5.1 样本选择与数据来源 .................................................................................. 41

5.2 国际竞争力评价 ........................................................................................ 41

5.3 国家发展战略要求评价 ............................................................................ 42

5.3.1 指标权重计算 ..................................................................................... 42

5.3.2 模糊决策 ............................................................................................... 43

5.4 区域经济发展要求评价 .............................................................................. 45

5.5 江苏省传统产业转型路径选择结果 .......................................................... 45

5.6 江苏省传统产业转型路径选择的对策建议 ............................................ 46

5.6.1 电气机械和器材制造业 ....................................................................... 46

5.6.2 化学原料和化学制品制造业 ............................................................... 47

5.6.3 黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业 ............................................................... 48

5.6.4 有色金属冶炼和压延加工业 ............................................................... 48

5.6.5 专用设备制造业 ................................................................................... 49

5.6.6 通用设备制造业 ................................................................................... 50

5.6.7 纺织业 ................................................................................................... 50

第六章结论与展望 ............................................................................................... 52

6.1 结论 .............................................................................................................. 52

6.2 展望 .............................................................................................................. 53

参考文献 ................................................................................................................. 55

在读期间公开发表的论文和承担科研项目及取得成果 ..................................... 59

致谢 ....................................................................................................................... 60

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摘要：

摘要2008年金融危机以来，新的世界分工格局正在形成，发达国家正调整产业结构，以应对随时孕育而生的产业技术革命。这对于发展中国家来说，正是承接产业转移，进行产业转型的大好时机。而我国也处于经济转型的关键时期，在传统产业发展尚不成熟的基础上还要大力发展新兴产业，所以传统产业转型路径的选择显得格外重要。论文以江苏省传统产业转型为研究对象，从国际竞争力、国家发展战略以及区域经济发展的三个角度，分析产业转型所需满足的条件，并以此建立江苏省传统产业转型路径选择模型，并对典型传统产业进行实证分析，最终分别给出转型建议。论文主要分为四个部分：第一部分探讨了产业转型的基础理论，并对传统产业的概念及特征进行了相...

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