预测我国陷入“中等收入陷阱”的可能性研究

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3.0 赵德峰 2024-11-19 4 4 1.81MB 74 页 15积分

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摘要

2006 年，世界银行在《东亚经济发展报告（2006）》提出了“中等收入陷阱”

（Middle Income Trap）的概念。其基本涵义是指：鲜有中等收入的经济体成功

地跻身为高收入国家，这些国家往往陷入了经济增长的停滞期，既无法在工资方

面与低收入国家竞争，又无法在尖端技术研制方面与富裕国家竞争。经济学家发

现，不少新兴市场经济国家陷入了“中等收入陷阱”，例如拉美和东南亚一些国

家。因此如何避免“中等收入陷阱”是转型国家面临的难题之一。我国人均 GDP

于2008 年达到 3403.52 美元，步入中等收入国家行列。中国能否避免“中等收

入陷阱”，顺利实现经济转型，步入高收入国家行列，成为我国经济发展进程中

具有重要现实意义的课题。基于此，本文将主要从两个层面进行研究：一是预测

我国是否会陷入“中等收入陷阱”；二是我国应该如何避免落入“中等收入陷阱”。

第一部分，主要分析和预测我国陷入“中等收入陷阱”的可能性。首先界定

了“中等收入陷阱”相关概念并分析了其成因，发现制度创新不足、转型失败、

消费不足以及二元经济结构的存在是发展中国家难以避免“中等收入陷阱”的深

层次原因。其次，分析了陷入国家的典型代表马来西亚、墨西哥，以及成功跨越

“中等收入陷进”的国家，如日本、韩国等的经验并总结对我国的启示。发现陷

入国家主要是因为不能处理好转型期的产业结构调整问题及收入分配公平性问

题，而跨越国家实现成功转型关键在于产业结构实现升级优化以及全民收入的提

高。最后，本文运用灰色预测 GM（1,1）模型预测后发现，我国从中等收入行

列升至高收入行列需要 16 年时间，即我国很可能陷入“中等收入陷阱”。

第二部分，本文设计了我国避免“中等收入陷阱”的有效途径。主要分为两

步：第一，分析我国避免“中等收入陷阱”的现实条件。我国宏观经济形势稳定、

国内具备较大的市场潜力以及城市化进程空间较大是现阶段避免陷入陷阱的有

利条件，但同时也存在收入分配改革阻碍重重、传统出口竞争优势逐渐减弱等挑

战。第二，我国未来如何避免陷入“中等收入陷阱”。本文提出核心关键在于实

现产业结构的调整，提升制造业的核心竞争力，大力发展战略性新兴产业。同时，

通过着力提高低收入者收入水平及扩大社会保障覆盖范围来缩小收入分配差距。

扩大国内需求以及稳步推进城市化进程以发掘我国新的经济增长点，也是实现我

国经济稳步可持续发展的有力措施。

关键词：中等收入陷阱经济转型产业结构收入分配

ABSTRACT

The World Bank came up with the concept of “Middle Income Trap” in her

report Economic Development of East Asia (2006) in 2006.Its basic meaning is that

very few middle income countries can leap into high income level. These countries

have no competence on the price compared with low income countries. While they

have no advantage in hi-tech field compared with high income countries. Economist

found that many emerging market economics sink into “Middle Income Trap”, such

as some Latin American countries and East Asia countries. How to escape is one of

the tough problems for countries in transition. China’s per capital GDP achieved

$3403.52, reaching to the middle income countries team. At present, China is in a

critical period of the social transformation, whether China would avoid the “Middle

Income Trap”, smoothly achieve the goal of per capital $10000 is a significant subject

in the course of China’s economy development. This paper will study from two

aspects based on this. Firstly, Predict whether China would step into the “Middle

Income Trap”, secondly, explore the way to avoid China stepping into the “Middle

Income Trap”.

The first part of this paper will analyze and predict the possibility of China

would step into the “Middle Income Trap”. Firstly, this paper would define the

relevant concepts about “Middle Income Trap” from the theoretical level, and analyze

the deep reasons for “Middle Income Trap”. The research finding that the deficient in

creative system, failure of transition, inadequate consumption and the existence of

dual economic structure are the deep reasons for many developing countries hard to

avoid the “Middle Income Trap”. Secondly, analyze the typical examples Malaysia,

Mexico as the countries sank into the trap, Japan and Korea as successfully crossed

countries. Through the research find that failing of handle with the problem of

industrial structure adjustment and income distribution inequality are the two most

serious phenomenon in sank countries. While realizing the upgrade of industrial

structure is the key factor for successfully crossed countries. Thirdly, This paper

would use Grey Prediction Model GM(1,1) to predict how many years China would

stay in middle income stage. The result comes out that China need 16 years to

complete jumping from middle income to high income. Namely China has a great

possibility to sink into “Middle Income Trap”.

The second part of this paper will explore effective ways to keep China away

from “Middle Income Trap”. This part mainly has two steps: Firstly, analyze the

realistic conditions of China keeping China away from “Middle Income Trap”.

Including advantages such as China has stable macroeconomic situations, huge

market potential and large urbanization space, Challenges such as income distribution

reform has many barriers, traditional export competitive advantage gradually

weakened. Secondly, China how to keep away from “Middle Income Trap” in the next

years, the key point is to realize industrial structure upgrade, enhancing core

competitiveness of manufacturing, giving strong support to the development of

strategic emerging industries. At the same time, narrow down income distribution gap

by improving the income of low-income class and expanding social security coverage.

Expand domestic demand and steadily push forward the urbanization process are also

effective measures to realize stable, sustainable development in China.

Key Words: Middle Income Trap, Economy Transition, Industrial

Structure，Income Distribution

摘要

ABSTRACT

第一章绪论........................................................................................................1

1.1 研究背景及意义...................................................................................... 1

1.1.1 研究背景......................................................................................1

1.1.2 研究意义......................................................................................2

1.2 文献综述.................................................................................................. 2

1.2.1 国外研究综述..............................................................................2

1.2.2 国内研究综述..............................................................................4

1.3 研究内容及研究方法.............................................................................. 7

1.3.1 研究内容......................................................................................7

1.3.2 研究方法......................................................................................8

第二章理论基础..................................................................................................9

2.1 概念界定.................................................................................................. 9

2.1.1 “中等收入陷阱”的概念及特征..............................................9

2.1.2 收入分配差距的定义及衡量....................................................10

2.1.3 产业结构与产业结构升级的涵义............................................10

2.1.4 城市化与过度城市化的涵义.................................................... 11

2.2 “中等收入陷阱”的理论依据............................................................ 12

2.2.1 马尔萨斯“人口陷阱”理论....................................................12

2.2.2 纳尔逊“低水平均衡陷阱”理论............................................12

2.2.3 库兹涅茨的收入分配倒 U曲线............................................... 12

2.3 “中等收入陷阱”的成因分析............................................................ 13

2.3.1 制度创新不足............................................................................14

2.3.2 转型失败....................................................................................15

2.3.3 消费不足....................................................................................15

2.3.4 二元经济结构的存在................................................................16

2.4 本章小结................................................................................................ 17

第三章主要国家应对“中等收入陷阱”的教训与经验................................18

3.1 马来西亚与墨西哥陷入“中等收入陷阱”的教训............................ 18

3.1.1 马来西亚....................................................................................18

3.1.2 墨西哥........................................................................................20

3.1.3 小结与启示................................................................................21

3.2 日本与韩国跨越“中等收入陷阱”的经验........................................ 22

3.2.1 日本............................................................................................22

3.2.2 韩国............................................................................................24

3.2.3 小结与启示................................................................................26

3.3 本章小结................................................................................................ 27

第四章我国陷入“中等收入陷阱”的可能性预测........................................28

4.1 判断陷入“中等收入陷阱”的标准.................................................... 28

4.1.1 陷入“中等收入陷阱”的总体表现........................................28

4.1.2 陷入“中等收入陷阱”的时间标准........................................29

4.2 基于 GM（1，1）模型的实证分析.....................................................31

4.2.1 灰色预测模型说明....................................................................31

4.2.2 指标选取与数据处理................................................................33

4.2.3 GM（1,1）模型检验与结果分析..............................................34

4.3 我国陷入“中等收入陷阱”的诱因.................................................... 35

4.3.1 收入分配差距失衡....................................................................35

4.3.2 产业结构调整进程缓慢............................................................37

4.3.3 贸易依存度居高不下................................................................41

4.4 本章小结................................................................................................ 42

第五章我国避免“中等收入陷阱”的可能性................................................43

5.1 “中等收入陷阱”对我国可能产生的冲击........................................ 43

5.2 我国避免陷入“中等收入陷阱”的有利条件.................................... 43

5.2.1 宏观经济形势稳定....................................................................44

5.2.2 国内市场潜力巨大....................................................................46

5.2.3 城市化进程空间大....................................................................46

5.3 我国避免陷入“中等收入陷阱”面临的挑战.................................... 47

5.3.1 收入分配结构调整阻碍重重....................................................47

5.3.2 产业结构转型面临国际压力....................................................48

5.3.3 传统出口竞争优势逐渐减弱....................................................49

5.4 本章小结................................................................................................ 50

第六章政策建议................................................................................................51

6.1 加快推进产业结构调整........................................................................ 51

6.1.1 努力打造制造业强国................................................................51

6.1.2 大力发展战略性新兴产业........................................................51

6.1.3 逐步提升服务业比例................................................................52

6.2 完善收入分配结构................................................................................ 52

6.2.1 着力提高农村居民收入............................................................52

6.2.2 完善社会保险制度....................................................................53

6.3 注重扩大国内消费需求........................................................................ 53

6.3.1 提高居民消费能力....................................................................54

6.3.2 提升居民消费意愿....................................................................54

6.4 本章小结................................................................................................ 55

第七章结语......................................................................................................56

7.1 结论...................................................................................................... 56

7.2 研究展望................................................................................................ 56

附录....................................................................................................................57

参考文献..............................................................................................................66

在读期间发表的论文和承担科研项目及取得成果..........................................69

致谢....................................................................................................................70

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摘要：

摘要2006年，世界银行在《东亚经济发展报告（2006）》提出了“中等收入陷阱”（MiddleIncomeTrap）的概念。其基本涵义是指：鲜有中等收入的经济体成功地跻身为高收入国家，这些国家往往陷入了经济增长的停滞期，既无法在工资方面与低收入国家竞争，又无法在尖端技术研制方面与富裕国家竞争。经济学家发现，不少新兴市场经济国家陷入了“中等收入陷阱”，例如拉美和东南亚一些国家。因此如何避免“中等收入陷阱”是转型国家面临的难题之一。我国人均GDP于2008年达到3403.52美元，步入中等收入国家行列。中国能否避免“中等收入陷阱”，顺利实现经济转型，步入高收入国家行列，成为我国经济发展进程中具有重...

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