浙江省原材料供应风险控制研究

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浙江财经学院硕士学位论文

MASTER DISSERTATION

近年来，随着经济发展速度的不断增快和市场化深度的不断加深，我国对于

能源和原材料的需求不断加大。全国出现了电力、煤炭、钢铁、有色金属、棉花等基

础能源、原材料的紧缺，并且趋势在不断加剧，尤其对于江南沿海一带的经济影

响最为严重。目前，能源、原材料等基础行业瓶颈再现。这对于正处于新的扩张上

升阶段，并加速向工业化后期迈进的浙江来说，既暴露出素质性、结构性发展制

约，也对微观层面的企业决策，经营模式带来深远的影响。

由于中国已经渐渐融入了国际市场经济体系，能源、原材料的供应和价格主

要由国际供求关系决定。因此，原材料的供应和价格存在着巨大的不确定性，这

种不确定性就是人们常说的风险。本文研究以浙江省的原材料供应为背景，从供

应链管理和制度创新双重角度探讨原材料风险规避和风险转移的有效途径，从而

实现浙江省制造业企业的可持续发展。

本文在界定原材料供应风险的基础上，根据原材料风险的来源，把风险分为

两类。一种是原材料供应商和制造业企业之间存在的合作风险，这种风险主要体

现在原材料成本的增加由一方单独承担，风险不能实现在供应链中的分担。另一

种风险与外部环境有关，笔者称之为绩效风险，这种风险主要体现在受国际供求

关系影响，原材料价格呈现波动振荡。本文结合浙江省实际情况，分别对这两种

风险进行分析研究，探求其规避、转移风险的途径。本文的主要观点如下：

1、对于合作风险，本文引用了Kraljic产品产量分析矩阵和公司定位矩阵为

回答如何进行风险分担提供理论基础。前者从原材料对于产品生产的重要程度出

发，后者从原材料供应方和采购方力量对比的角度出发，分别为企业制定合作决

浙江财经学院硕士学位论文

策提供依据。合作双方所需要承担的原材料风险的份额既要根据原材料产品的不

同而有所区别，更要根据双方的实力对比（或依赖程度）加以划分。在此基础上，

本文引入了一个制造商和一个供应商的风险转移博弈模型，得出以下结论：在完

全信息条件下，双方各自需要承担的原材料价格变动带来的风险份额只与双方的

依赖程度δ有关；在不完全信息条件下，双方各自需要承担的原材料风险份额不

仅与双方的依赖程度δ有关，还与各自以前生产成本的数学期望有关。

2、对于绩效风险，只有通过原材料供应的制度创新才能加以控制或转移。本

文结合浙江省原材料供应机制的现状，分析合理性和存在的问题。在此基础上提

出浙江省原材料供应制度安排的发展方向：一是利用规模优势规避与降低风险，

二是通过延伸产业链或利用期货市场转移风险。前者已经有了一定的发展趋势，

但缺少政府和行业协会的引导；后者因受资金、技术层面的约束，目前还没有较

大的发展，但其必然将会成为原材料风险转移的主要手段。

对于原材料供应风险控制概念的提出，具有现实的意义。把原材料供应风险

划分为来自供应链内部的合作风险和自来供应外部环境的绩效风险是本文的逻辑

创新。目前的研究只表明风险的分担对于供应链整体收益最大化和内部各成员的

持续发展是有利的，但是对于风险如何分担及其相应的依据并没有做出理论解释。

本文的博弈模型从理论上创新地探讨了在各种条件下，双方所需要承担的风险份

额及其影响因子。此外，本文从制度创新的新视角，探讨原材料供应体系的制度

安排对于规避和控制原材料供应风险的重要作用。当然来自外部环境的原材料供

应风险的各种转移途径的可行性由于受到较多外部因素的影响，还有待深入的研

究。

关键词：原材料风险；风险控制；合作风险；绩效风险

浙江财经学院硕士学位论文

ABSTRACT

The demand for energy and raw material in our country has increased over the past

few years in order to cater for the accelerating economic growth and deepening market

orientation. There is an aggravating shortage of fundamental energy source and raw

material such as electricity, coal, iron and steel, nonferrous metal and cotton, which has

already affected the economic growth, especially in the southeast coast of China.

Therefore, the industry of energy and raw material in Zhejiang province comes across

its “bottleneck” once again. In a crucial period of rapid economic growth, the strain of

the “bottleneck” is especially felt in terms of quality and structure. Moreover, it has

profound influence on enterprise decision and operational model as well when

considering on the micro-level.

At present, as Chinese market is gradually integrating with the global market

economy system, the supply and price of energy source and raw material in China is

also determined largely by international supply and demand. As a result, the supply and

price of energy and raw material is unstable, or there are risks, as it is usually

mentioned. This thesis studies raw material supply basing on Zhejiang Province, and

discusses the effective way to avoid and transfer the raw material risk from the angle of

supply chain management and system innovation.

From the source point of view, there are two types of risks. The first is the

cooperation risk between supplier and manufacturer. The risk comes when all the risk

falls on one side alone, not divided up by both. The other is performance risk. This kind

of risk is affected with global supply and demand. The author analyzes these two types

of risks respectively to search for a cure.

1. In respect of cooperation risk, this thesis cited Kraljic’s Production and Output

Matrix and Purchasing Portfolio Matrix as the theoretical basis to answer the question

of how to avoid and shift risks. How to divide the risks up between supplier and

manufacturer is determined as much by the nature of the raw material as by the

strength (or dependence on the raw material)of both parties. On this basis, the author

III

浙江财经学院硕士学位论文

suggests a game theory model of risk shifting and draws a conclusion that if the

information is accessible to both parties, the portion of risks a party have to take is

decided only by their dependence on the raw material; however, if the information is

not equally distributed between the two parties, the portion of risks will also be

connected with their previous expectation of the cost.

2. As for performance risk, only system innovation can realize the control and shift

of the risk. Based on quantitative and qualitative analysis, the author suggests two

solutions: firstly, reduce risks by scale economy; secondly, shift risks by extending the

production chain or take advantage of futures market. The form has already come into

use but lacked guidance; the latter, although under developed, will surely be the main

stream as an effective solution.

The current study only shows that the risk-sharing is favorable to the overall profit

maximization and development of the members in the supply chain. How to share the

risk and the corresponding theoretical basis haven’t been explained yet. In this paper,

the game theory model explains the risk share that both parts have to take and impact

factors under various conditions. Besides, this paper discusses the importance of the

institutional arrangements to avoid and shift raw materials risk from a new perspective

of innovation.

Key Words: The risk of raw material； Risk control； Cooperation risk；

Performance risk

浙江财经学院硕士学位论文
目 录
导  言...................................................1
1 研究背景.............................................1
2 研究目的、内容和意义.................................1
3 研究方法和研究思路...................................2
4 本文的创新之处.......................................3
2　基本概念和文献探讨......................................4
1 原材料及风险的含义...................................4
2 理论概述.............................................8
原材料风险的评判标准及影响因素..........................12
1 原材料风险判定指标体系..............................12
2 原材料供应风险的影响因素............................14
浙江省原材料供求现状及影响机制..........................17
1 浙江省原材料供求现状................................17
2 原材料资源供求关系对于浙江下游企业的影响............20
3 浙江省原材料供给的风险来源..........................24
供应关系管理对浙江企业原材料供应风险控制分析............25
1 供应商合作伙伴关系的定义和意义......................25
2 原材料供应商合作伙伴的选择及评价方法................26
3 原材料供应关系管理模型..............................29
4 供应商—下游制造企业博弈模型的风险分担机制研究......38
制度创新对于浙江省原材料供应风险控制分析................43
V

浙江财经学院硕士学位论文

6.1 制度变迁与经济增长的关系研究........................43

6.2 浙江省原材料供应现状及风险问题......................48

6.3 浙江省原材料供应风险规避制度创新的发展方向..........53

7 案例验证................................................58

7.1 永康五金城概况......................................58

7.2 从主要工业指标数据看原材料供应风险的影响............60

7.3 永康五金原材料风险规避的验证........................64

7.4 永康五金产业规避原材料供应风险的启示................66

8 研究结论与建议..........................................68

8.1 研究结论............................................68

8.2 未来研究建议........................................69

参考文献..................................................70

致　谢....................................................74

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摘要：

浙江财经学院硕士学位论文MASTERDISSERTATION近年来，随着经济发展速度的不断增快和市场化深度的不断加深，我国对于能源和原材料的需求不断加大。全国出现了电力、煤炭、钢铁、有色金属、棉花等基础能源、原材料的紧缺，并且趋势在不断加剧，尤其对于江南沿海一带的经济影响最为严重。目前，能源、原材料等基础行业瓶颈再现。这对于正处于新的扩张上升阶段，并加速向工业化后期迈进的浙江来说，既暴露出素质性、结构性发展制约，也对微观层面的企业决策，经营模式带来深远的影响。由于中国已经渐渐融入了国际市场经济体系，能源、原材料的供应和价格主要由国际供求关系决定。因此，原材料的供应和价格存在着巨大的不确定性，这...

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