低碳城市评价指标体系构建及实证研究——以上海市为例

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摘要

随着全球人口数量的上升和经济规模的不断增长，化石能源等常规能源的使

用造成的环境问题不断突显。近年来，废气污染、水污染等危害，以及二氧化碳

浓度升高带来的全球气候变化，已被确认为人类不断开发建设、破坏自然环境的

严重后果。在此背景下， “低碳经济”、“低碳技术”、“低碳生活方式”、“低

碳社会”、“低碳城市”等一系列新概念应运而生。摒弃 20 世纪及以前的传统增

长模式，直接应用新世纪的创新技术与创新机制，通过发展低碳经济、建立低碳

城市，实现社会可持续发展成为人类发展的必经之路。

低碳城市目前已成为世界各地的共同追求，很多国际大都市以建设发展低碳

城市为荣，关注和重视在经济发展过程中的代价最小化以及人与自然和谐相处、

人性的舒缓包容。2008 年，上海被选为国家建设部与 WWF（世界自然基金会）

在中国联合推出的两个低碳试点城市之一，上海市一直以来不断推行低碳政策、

发展低碳技术、培养低碳金融等，为上海市建设低碳城市之路奠定了良好的基础。

为了推进低碳城市的发展，必须建立一套设计合理、操作简便的低碳城市评

价体系，这样才能找准低碳城市发展中存在的主要问题，为城市低碳经济管理及

决策提供科学的理论支持。本文根据已有的文献综述及笔者的自身判断，梳理了

一个科学、完善的低碳城市指标体系，具体包括低碳生活、低碳生产、低碳环境

三个子系统，由 13 个具体指标支撑。在运用主成分分析法、层次分析法对各级指

标赋予了权重的基础上，构造评级模型，力图全面反映低碳城市发展水平。

利用上述评级指标体系，结合相关数据的搜集与整理，本文对上海市生活、

生产、环境三个系统的实际发展状况进行了分项及综合剖析。目的在于挖掘上海

是低碳城市的发展水平及存在的问题。

本文对上海市低碳城市发展综合水平进行评价，得出的结论是：第一，上海

市的低碳城市发展整体水平正处于不断上升的状态。第二，低碳生产、低碳环境

两个子系统发展态势良好，处于逐年改进的状态。第三，低碳生活子系统的发展

出现了一定的问题，表现为低碳生活发展态势逐年下降。本文就各中的原因做了

较为具体的分析与解释。最后提出保障上海市低碳城市顺利发展的对策建议。

关键词：低碳城市评价指标体系层次分析法主成分分析法

ABSTRACT

With the increasing of the global population and growing economies of economic

scale, the environmental problems caused by the use of fossil energy and conventional

energy continue to be highlighted. Recent years, air pollution, water pollution and

other hazards, Global climate change, which is caused by air pollution, water pollution

and other hazards, has been ecognized as the serious consequences of development and

construction. Under this background, a series of new concepts, such as "low-carbon

economy", "low-carbon technologies", "low-carbon lifestyle", "low-carbon society",

"low-carbon city" come into being.

Building a low-carbon economy and city to achieve sustainable social development

has become the only way for human development.

Low-carbon city has become the consensus of all over the world, many

international metropolis has been proud of construction and development of low-carbon

cities,In 2008, Shanghai was selected as one of the two low-carbon pilot cities in China

by the National Ministry of Construction and WWT. Shanghai has been a model for

implementing a low-carbon policies, developing low-carbon technologies , which lay a

good foundation for building a low-carbon city.

In order to promote the development of low-carbon city,we must establish a

reasonable low-carbon city evaluation system, so that we can provide a scientific

theorysupported for the management and decision-making of urban low-carbon

economy. According to the existing literature review and the author's own judgment,

the paper cards a perfect low-carbon city Evaluation Index System, including

low-carbon life subsystem, low-carbon production subsystem and low-carbon

environment o subsystem, supported by 13 specific indicators. In the use of PCA and

AHP for all levels of indicators given, the paper constructs the evaluation model and try

to fully reflect the level of low-carbon city development.

Using the Evaluation Index System, combined with the collection and sorting of

data, the paper carrys out the analysis of Shanghai life, production, environment three

subsystems development, aimed at mining Shanghai is the level of development and the

problems of low-carbon cities.

This paper evaluates the development level of Shanghai low-carbon city, the

conclusion is: firstly, The overall level of low-carbon urban development in Shanghai is

III

in a state of rising. Secondly, two subsystems, low carbon production and low carbon

environment, present a good trend of development, and the state of improved is

increasing year by year. Thirdly, the development of low-carbon life subsystems got

problems, mainly performed by a decreasing tendency.The paper Analysis and explains

the reasons. And at last , proposed some suggestions to safeguard the smooth

development of Shanghai low-carbon city.

Key Word：Low-carbon city, Evaluation Index System, AHP, PCA

摘要......................................................................................................................................... I

ABSTRACT.............................................................................................................................II

第一章引言.....................................................................................................................................1

1.1 选题的背景和意义............................................................................................................1

1.1.1 选题背景.................................................................................................................1

1.1.2 研究意义.................................................................................................................2

1.2 研究内容、研究方法及技术路线.....................................................................................2

1.2.1 研究内容.................................................................................................................2

1.2.2 研究方法.................................................................................................................3

1.3.3 技术路线.................................................................................................................4

1.3 本文的创新点及不足........................................................................................................5

1.3.1 本文的创新点.........................................................................................................5

1.3.1 本文存在的不足.....................................................................................................5

第二章相关理论基础和国内外文献综述.....................................................................................6

2.1 相关理论基础....................................................................................................................6

2.1.1 环境库兹涅茨理论(EKC).......................................................................................6

2.1.2 脱钩理论..................................................................................................................7

2.1.3“城市矿山”理论 .......................................................................................................7

2.2 国内外文献综述................................................................................................................7

2.2.1 低碳经济的国内外研究综述..................................................................................8

2.2.2 低碳城市及其评价指标体系的国内外研究综述..................................................9

第三章国内外低碳城市的发展现状及经验借鉴.......................................................................12

3.1 国外低碳城市发展实践案例..........................................................................................12

3.1.1 英国——生活低碳化...........................................................................................12

3.1.2 日本——推行政策法规.......................................................................................13

3.1.3 荷兰——打造低碳社区.......................................................................................14

3.2 国内低碳城市发展实践案例...........................................................................................15

3.2.1 保定——重视低碳能源.......................................................................................15

3.2.2 厦门——以规划布局为抓手...............................................................................16

3.2.3 杭州——打造全面的低碳城市...........................................................................16

第四章低碳城市评价指标体系的构建.......................................................................................18

4.1 低碳城市评价指标体系设置的原则..............................................................................18

4.1.1 系统性原则...........................................................................................................18

4.1.2 代表性原则...........................................................................................................18

4.1.3 可行性原则...........................................................................................................18

4.1.4 相对独立性原则...................................................................................................19

4.2 低碳城市评价指标体系的设计......................................................................................19

4.2.1 目标层...................................................................................................................19

4.2.2 准则层...................................................................................................................19

4.2.3 指标层...................................................................................................................19

4.3 对主要评价指标的解释及其计算方法..........................................................................20

4.3.1 低碳生产指标.......................................................................................................20

4.3.2 低碳生活指标.......................................................................................................21

4.3.3 低碳环境指标.......................................................................................................21

4.4 确定指标权重的方法选择...............................................................................................22

4.4.1 主成分分析法.......................................................................................................22

4.4.2 层次分析法...........................................................................................................23

4.5 评价模型的选择..............................................................................................................25

4.5.1 各子系统的评价模型...................................................................................................25

4.5.2 综合系统的评价模型...........................................................................................25

第五章上海市低碳城市发展的实证分析...................................................................................26

5.1 低碳城市评价的数据来源与处理..................................................................................26

5.1.1 数据的来源...........................................................................................................26

5.1.1 数据的处理...........................................................................................................26

5.2 上海市低碳城市子系统的发展评价..............................................................................26

5.2.1 低碳生产发展水平评价.......................................................................................26

5.2.2 低碳生活发展水平评价.......................................................................................29

5.2.3 低碳环境发展水平评价.......................................................................................31

5.3 上海市低碳城市发展综合水平评价..............................................................................33

第六章上海市建设低碳城市的对策建议...................................................................................36

6.1 低碳生产方面的对策建议..............................................................................................36

6.1.1 科学调整产业结构...............................................................................................36

6.1.2 创建低碳能源网络体系.......................................................................................36

6.1.3 加快低碳技术研究...............................................................................................36

6.2 低碳生活方面的对策建议...............................................................................................37

6.1.4 发展集约化交通模式...........................................................................................37

6.1.5 推广城市低碳建筑...............................................................................................37

6.1.6 引导居民消费向低碳化转变...............................................................................37

6.3 低碳环境方面的对策建议...............................................................................................38

6.1.7 营造生态宜居的绿色城市...................................................................................38

第七章结论...................................................................................................................................39

附录.........................................................................................................................................40

参考文献.................................................................................................................................42

在读期间公开发表的论文和承担科研项目及取得成果 .....................................................45

致谢.......................................................................................................................................46

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摘要：

I摘要随着全球人口数量的上升和经济规模的不断增长，化石能源等常规能源的使用造成的环境问题不断突显。近年来，废气污染、水污染等危害，以及二氧化碳浓度升高带来的全球气候变化，已被确认为人类不断开发建设、破坏自然环境的严重后果。在此背景下，“低碳经济”、“低碳技术”、“低碳生活方式”、“低碳社会”、“低碳城市”等一系列新概念应运而生。摒弃20世纪及以前的传统增长模式，直接应用新世纪的创新技术与创新机制，通过发展低碳经济、建立低碳城市，实现社会可持续发展成为人类发展的必经之路。低碳城市目前已成为世界各地的共同追求，很多国际大都市以建设发展低碳城市为荣，关注和重视在经济发展过程中的代价最小化以及人与自然...

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