USST_Arts_112480735网络舆情演化与谣言传播研究

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摘要

“网络舆情”是社会大众通过互联网络媒介表达自身对某些问题、事件的看

法、态度、认识和情绪等的集合。随着互联网网民数量不断增加，民主意识越来

越深入民心，通过网络平台参与事件的讨论，表达自己的观点，已经成为一种重

要的政治、经济、生活方式。舆情的产生和发展不仅与人类的心理、行为习惯相

关联，还和人们所处的社会环境的政治、经济、文化、法律、政策体系有很大的

相关性。网络信息具有其独特的传播规律，某一事件发生之后，网民意见一般存

在爆发性和长期静默性，而且舆情引导机制的不同就导致事件不同的发展趋势、

舆情的相变时间及涌现行为不同。海量信息混杂在一起，还不可避免地会出现以

讹传讹，以及别有用心的谣言。本文的主要工作如下：

首先，分析了参与舆论演变的四大要素(事件要素、网民要素、媒介要素和政

府要素)对网络舆情传播地影响。分别介绍了各个要素的定义以及在舆论演化过程

中所起的作用。进一步地，将舆论演化划分为爆发期、高涨期和消退期三个阶段，

紧接着对三个阶段的特点分别进行了深入介绍。通过该划分阶段，可以更清晰的

了解网络舆论从产生直到消亡的整个过程规律。

其次，在经典舆论演化模型—HK 模型的基础上，建立了基于有限信任机制的

舆论演化模型。模型的构造规则如下：初始化，赋予每个个体以初始观点值，该

观点值介于 0与1之间；迭代，每步迭代中，个体将参考其满足阈值条件的邻居

个体的观点值，进行加权平均作为下一步的观点值。仿真结果表明，当可参考的

邻居个体数目越多，阈值 d取值越大，舆论演化能够越快地达到稳态；随着阈值 d

值的增大，演化最后存活的观点数将下降；同时单侧阈值的改变将使得系统整体

观点偏向于一极。

第三，构建了引入真实信息因素的 SIH 谣言传播模型。模型分别从以下四点

研究了真实信息发布如何影响谣言的传播过程：真实信息发布时刻，真实信息发

布者的数量、度和公信力。Barabasi-Albert 网络上的仿真结果表明，谣言爆发初期

是谣言治理的最佳时期，真实信息的发布对谣言的传播起到扼制作用。另外，谣

言传播者比例所能达到的峰值与真实信息发布者所占比例之间近似服从幂律分

布；该峰值与真实信息发布者公信力提升的倍数之间也近似服从幂律分布，其中

幂律指数的大小均受到真实信息发布时间的影响。分析结果表明，本文提出的模

型能够较好反映谣言信息传播规律，具有一定的现实意义。

关键词：网络舆情舆情演化真实信息谣言传播复杂网络

ABSTRACT

“Network public opinion” refers to the expression of public views, attitudes,

knowledge and emotions on certain events through the network. With the the increase

of the number of Internet users and the democratic awareness, to participate in the

discussion of events and express their points through the Internet has become an

important political, economic lifestyle. The emergence and development of public

opinion is not only related to the human psychology and behavior, but also associated

with the political, economic, cultural, legal and policy system of the social

environments that people live. The dissemination of network information has its own

laws. Once certain event happens, the views of the Internet users usually show

explosive and long-term silence, and the different mechanisms to guide public opinion

will lend to different trends of events, different phase transition emergence of public

opinion. When the vast amounts of information are mixed together, baseless assertion

appears inevitably, as well as rumors.

Firstly, we analyze the four elements that participate in the evolution of public

opinion: the event element, the elements of Internet users, the media elements and the

element of the government. The definitions of these elements are given, along with the

roles that they play during the evolution of public opinion respectively. Then the

evolution of public opinion is divided into three stages: the outbreak of the public

opinion, the rising period and the lessening period. The characteristics of these stages

are listed. By the division of different stages, the entire process of the public opinion

could be better understood.

Secondly, a new model on the evolution of public opinion is presented, which is

based on the classic model the HK model. The model is constructed as follows:

Initialization, the value of each individual is given; Iteration, the individual will refer to

the values of its neighbors that meet the threshold condition and take the weighted

average value as the new point of view. Simulation results show that the more the

neighbors that individuals can refer to , the greater the threshold value, the sooner the

evolution of public opinion to reach a steady state;With the increase of the threshold

value of d, the number of views that survives will fall;while the unilateral change in the

threshold will make the system reach a very biased point of view.

Thirdly, we present an improved model for rumor spreading by the introduction of

the factual information factor based on the classic rumor spreading model. And through

the Monte Carlo simulations, we investigate the effect of the factual information release

on the rumor spreading process from four expects: the time when the factual

information is released, the quantity, credibility and connectivity of the factual

information publishers. The results show that: the sooner that the measures are taken,

the better the result for the preventing of the rumor spreading. And to release the factual

information is effective for better control of rumor propagation. In addition, the

simulation results show that the maximal density of rumor spreaders follows the power

law distributions. And the value of the parameter is affected by the time steps that the

factual information is release. The analysis results show that the model we present could

reflect the spreading of emergency rumor, which has a certain practical significance.

Key words: Network Public Opinion, Evolution of Public Opinion,

True Information, Rumor Spreading, Complex Network

摘要

ABSTRACT

第一章绪论.................................................................................................................. 1

1.1 研究背景............................................................................................................1

1.2 研究意义............................................................................................................1

1.2.1 网络舆情演化的研究意义.....................................................................1

1.2.2 谣言信息传播的研究意义.....................................................................2

1.3 国内外研究现状................................................................................................2

1.3.1 舆情演化研究现状.................................................................................2

1.3.2 谣言传播研究现状.................................................................................3

1.4 本文的主要内容及章节安排............................................................................4

第二章相关背景知识介绍............................................................................................. 6

2.1 复杂网络概述....................................................................................................6

2.2 复杂网络的基本拓扑性质.................................................................................6

2.3 复杂网络上的谣言传播模型............................................................................9

2.3.1 Zanette 小世界网络谣言传播模型.........................................................9

2.3.2 Moreno 等人的无标度网络谣言传播模型.......................................... 10

2.4 经典舆论演化模型介绍..................................................................................11

2.4.1 Sznajd 模型............................................................................................11

2.4.2 Defuant 模型、Hegselmann-krause 模型............................................. 14

第三章网络舆情演化过程分析................................................................................... 16

3.1 网络舆情的演化要素分析...............................................................................16

3.1.1 事件要素...............................................................................................16

3.1.2 网民要素...............................................................................................16

3.1.3 媒介要素...............................................................................................17

3.1.4 政府要素...............................................................................................18

3.2 网络舆情演化阶段划分..................................................................................18

3.2.1 舆情的爆发期.......................................................................................19

3.2.2 舆情的高涨期.......................................................................................19

3.2.3 舆情的消退期.......................................................................................21

3.3 本章小结...........................................................................................................22

第四章网络舆情演化模型建立与分析....................................................................... 23

4.1 模型描述..........................................................................................................23

4.2 舆情演化模型设计..........................................................................................23

4.3 计算机仿真分析..............................................................................................24

4.3.1 邻居个体数目对舆论演化的影响研究...............................................24

4.3.2 阈值对舆论演化的影响研究...............................................................26

4.3.3 单侧阈值改变对舆论演化的影响研究...............................................28

4.4 本章小结..........................................................................................................29

第五章考虑真实信息的谣言传播模型建立与分析................................................... 30

5.1 模型建立..........................................................................................................30

5.1.1 基本谣言传播模型介绍........................................................................30

5.1.2 SIH 谣言传播模型................................................................................ 31

5.2 初始网络模型的构建......................................................................................32

5.2.1 模型说明...............................................................................................32

5.2.2 初始网络模型的构建...........................................................................32

5.3 模型仿真..........................................................................................................33

5.4 真实信息发布在谣言传播中的作用研究......................................................34

5.4.1 真实信息发布时间的影响研究...........................................................34

5.4.2 初始真实信息发布者数量的影响研究...............................................35

5.4.3 真实信息发布者公信力的影响研究...................................................36

5.4.4 真实信息发布者度大小的影响研究...................................................37

5.5 本章小结..........................................................................................................38

第六章总结与展望....................................................................................................... 40

6.1 总结..................................................................................................................40

6.2 展望..................................................................................................................41

参考文献.........................................................................................................................42

在读期间公开发表论文和承担科研项目及取得成果..............................................46

致谢...............................................................................................................................47

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摘要：

摘要“网络舆情”是社会大众通过互联网络媒介表达自身对某些问题、事件的看法、态度、认识和情绪等的集合。随着互联网网民数量不断增加，民主意识越来越深入民心，通过网络平台参与事件的讨论，表达自己的观点，已经成为一种重要的政治、经济、生活方式。舆情的产生和发展不仅与人类的心理、行为习惯相关联，还和人们所处的社会环境的政治、经济、文化、法律、政策体系有很大的相关性。网络信息具有其独特的传播规律，某一事件发生之后，网民意见一般存在爆发性和长期静默性，而且舆情引导机制的不同就导致事件不同的发展趋势、舆情的相变时间及涌现行为不同。海量信息混杂在一起，还不可避免地会出现以讹传讹，以及别有用心的谣言。本文的主要工...

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